NCAA DIVISION I-A FOOTBALL
MATCHUP ANALYSES for AP Top 25
for Thursday & Saturday, November 19 & 21, 1998
1. Tennessee vs. Kentucky . . . (Opened Tennessee -11) - Tennessee is
the first team in the history of the Bowl Championship Series (BCS)
rankings, which is in its fourth week of existence, that has been able
to hold onto the top spot for more than one week. They almost didn't.
Last week, the SEC East leading Volunteers matched-up against the SEC
West leading Razorbacks for current bragging rights in the Southeastern
Conference. With two minutes left and Arkansas leading 24-22, it looked
as if that privilege would belong to the Hogs -- until they left the
ball on the ground for the Vols to fall on it. Just over a minute later,
Tennessee plunged into the endzone and claimed victory from the jaws of
defeat. Current bragging rights belong to them, but there is still the
SEC championship game to think about. Their likely opponent -- the
Arkansas Razorbacks (if they are able to get past Mississippi State this
week). After Ohio State's shocking loss to Michigan State two weeks ago,
Tennessee promised not look ahead to any opponent. They may not be
taking Kentucky quite as seriously as they did Arkansas, however. The
Volunteers have beat the Wildcats the last 13 times SU (Straight Up).
The last four years, while Peyton Manning led the show, the Vols were
4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS (Against The Spread) with an average margin of
victory of over 32 points (50.3-18.0) against the ‘Cats.
2. Kansas State @ No. 19 Missouri . . . (Opened Kansas State -10.5) -
Kansas State hasn't received any credit for earning the top-ranked spot
in both the NCAA Division I-A scoring offense and defense categories
because of who they played to get there, (namely Indiana State,Northern
Illinois, Northeast Louisiana, Iowa State, and Kansas). That should
change some after they beat their last opponent, however. Last week
the Cornhuskers came calling and left with their first defeat to the
Wildcats in thirty years. Problem is, even though they've silenced the
doubters who believed they shouldn't have a shot at the national
championship game, the `Cats still might not get one. No.2 in the AP
poll means nothing if you finish No.3 in the BCS, which is where K State
stands this week. They have cut UCLA's lead in the BCS points scale from
1.26 to 0.74, though. The win over Nebraska clinched the Big 12 North
division title for Kansas State, and they are on a collision course with
Big 12 South division winner Texas A&M. A win there would probably be
enough to get them over the hump. But, first up is Missouri, who has
only scored 21 total points against Kansas State over the past three
years to K State's 106.
3. UCLA vs. Southern California . . . (Opened UCLA -7.5) - UCLA's 36-24
victory over Washington last Saturday marked the first time in five
weeks that they were able to cover the spread. The good news didn't stop
there, though, as the Bruins also clinched the Pac 10 title and a Rose
Bowl berth. Too bad they're not happy settling for either one. The
title they're looking for is the national championship and the bowl game
they'd need to play in to claim that crown rhymes with siesta. If the
season were to end today, they'd get at least half of their wish (and
the opportunity to play for the rest) as the BCS would make them the
other half of the Fiesta Bowl, this year's national championship game.
Their second place ranking in the Bowl Championship Series is slipping,
however, and their next two opponents don't quite stack up against
Kansas State's last two. The decision to play the make-up game against
Miami, Florida (which was widely criticized by the media) may be the
only thing that saves their spot if they are able to win-out
convincingly. This week they face perennial rival Southern Cal, in what
is probably one of the top three rivalries in all of college football
(along with Ohio State-Michigan and Florida-Florida State). The Bruins
have beat the Trojans the last three seasons, but each game has been
decided by a touchdown or less.
4. Florida @ No.5 Florida State . . . (Opened Florida State -3) - Though
ranked one spot ahead of Florida State in the AP poll, Florida is one
spot behind FSU in the BCS rankings, where they are both still No.4 and
No.5. All that will change after they play each other this week. As if
the rivalry between these two wasn't enough, should two of the top three
ranked teams lose one of their games, the winner of this matchup has as
good a shot as anyone to step into their place in the national
championship game. Then again, Texas A&M (who is ranked just behind U of F
& FSU) might jump into that position with a win over Kansas State in the
Big 12 championship game. But, you say, the Seminoles beat the Aggies in
the Kickoff Classic way back in August. Yeah, but just two weeks ago
Michigan shut-out Penn State 27-0 and was rewarded by the BCS with a
ranking that fell one place behind PSU. The point is . . . don't try to
make sense of any of this yet because it just isn't possible to
determine who will be where and when they'll be there. Getting back to
the Gators and Seminoles, the home team has won this matchup (in the
regular season) by a mere field goal the last two years. Florida
revenged their regular season loss two years ago with a 52-20 Sugar Bowl
victory which earned them the national championship. That makes it two
straight for the Gators, then. The Seminoles lost their starting
quarterback for the season two weeks ago. With a quarterback who has
only started one game at this level, Florida State will be relying on
their top-ranked defense to stop Florida's 5th ranked passing offense
and give them a chance.
5. Florida State hosts No.4 Florida. [See above.]
6. Texas A&M defeated No.19 (then No.13) Missouri 17-14 last week. Next
@ No.25 Texas (Friday, 11/27/98).
7. Ohio State vs. No.11 Michigan . . . (Opened Ohio State -10.5) -Possibly
the best rivalry in all of sports, this one could very well be for the
Big Ten title and a trip to the Rose Bowl this year. That's the way it's
supposed to be, right? If Michigan (7-0 in-conference) wins, the title
is theirs. If Ohio State wins, they need a Wisconsin loss to Penn State,
which is highly possible, to smell the roses. The Buckeyes won the Rose
Bowl two years ago but finished No.2 in the country since they lost 13-9
to 17-point underdog Michigan in their regular season finale. The
Wolverines won the Rose Bowl last year and finished No.1 in the nation
one month after surviving 20-14 as 3-point favorites against the Bucks.
Michigan has won three straight ATS. U of M has made a habit of beating
OSU the past ten years -- since John Cooper took over as the Bucks' head
coach, they are 1-8-1 against their most hated rivals. Somehow he has
kept his job.
8. Arizona defeated California 27-23 last week. Next vs. Arizona State
(Friday, 11/27/98).
9. Arkansas @ Mississippi State . . . (Opened -3.5) - A late fumble
leading to a Tennessee touchdown with less than thirty seconds left
last week cost Arkansas their undefeated season and shot at the national
championship. They were 10th in the AP poll going into the game, but
just 7th in the BCS. A win over Tennessee may have moved them ahead of
those schools above them with one loss each. They didn't win, yet they
still moved up a spot in the AP poll for their effort. A win over
Mississippi State this week will clinch the SEC West title. Tennessee
has all but clinched the SEC East. Can you say rematch? Arkansas can,
but they had better wait until they get past Bulldogs (which they've had
trouble doing the past five years). In 1993 they played to a 13-13 tie,
in `94 they lost 17-7, and the next three years they won 26-21, 16-13,
and 17-7 in succession.
10. Notre Dame vs. Louisiana State . . .(Opened Notre Dame -2) -Had Notre
Dame not slipped up at Michigan State in its second game this year, one
week after beating defending national champion Michigan, they would be
right up there at the top. Then again, had Ohio State not lost to
Michigan State, so would they. And the beat goes on. The Fighting Irish
went into Louisiana State last year as an 11-point underdog and came
out a 24-6 winner. ND is even better this year. LSU is worse. But the
Tigers took last week off to prepare for the Irish in the hopes of
getting their revenge.
11. Michigan travels to No.7 Ohio State. [See above.]
12. Tulane vs. Houston . . . (Opened Tulane -17) - One of only four
undefeated NCAA Division I-A teams left, Tulane isn't even ranked in the
top ten. And they shouldn't be. In fact, if you look at the rest of the
Top 25, they probably wouldn't fare too well either. Why? Because the
teams they've beat rank 101st on the BCS's strength of schedule scale.
In other words, only eleven (out of 112) Div. I-A teams have played an
easier schedule than the Green Wave. That isn't saying much. The Wave
has played Houston the past two seasons, losing 20-17 two years ago and
winning 44-10 last year. The Cougars are 3-7, which is a better record
than four teams Tulane has already played this year.
13. Wisconsin vs. No. 16 Penn State . . . (Opened Wisconsin -2.5) -
Wisconsin's 27-10 loss to Michigan last week cost them a chance at an
undefeated season and a Rose Bowl berth. This game may still have Rose
Bowl implications, however, since, if Ohio State beats Michigan,
Wisconsin would need to lose to Penn State for the Buckeyes to advance
to Pasadena. The Badgers finished last season with losses to the
Wolverines and the Nittany Lions and have a shot of repeating that
unfortunate scenario once again. These two have met the past three years
with PSU winning the last two but covering only last year. Penn State
(7-2 SU) hasn't lost three games since 1995.
14. Georgia vs. Mississippi . . . (Opened Georgia -11.5) - This has been
a relatively low-scoring affair three of the last four years with Georgia
winning 17-14 four years ago and 21-14 last year. Mississippi won 18-10
in 1995 and 31-27 in `96. Georgia covered only last year of the four.
15. Oregon @ Oregon State . . . (Opened Oregon -10) - Oregon's two losses
this season have come against the top two teams in the Pac 10, UCLA and
Arizona (who also happen to be ranked among the top 10 in the nation.
Oregon State doesn't quite fit that bill; in fact, they haven't had a
winning season in three decades. The Beavers won one game in 1995, two
in `96, three last year, and four going into this game this season.
Maybe they're on the ten-year plan. Not surprisingly, the Ducks have had
no problem with the Beavers the last two seasons, winning 49-13 two
years back and 48-30 last year.
16. Penn State travels to No.13 Wisconsin. [See above.]
17. Nebraska lost to No.2 Kansas State 40-30 last week. Next vs. Colorado
(Friday, 11/27/98).
18. Virginia defeated North Carolina 30-13 last week. Next @ No.23
Virginia Tech (11/28/98).
19. Missouri hosts No.2 Kansas State. [See above.]
20. Air Force vs. Rice . . . (Opened Air Force -17.5) - Air Force needs
this win to claim the WAC's Mountain division. Both Air Force and Wyoming
have 6-1 conference records, but the Falcons beat the Cowboys 10-3 last
week. Wyoming travels to Tulsa (1-6 in-conference) while Air Force
hosts Rice (5-2 in-conf). If Rice wins, the Owls will have beat the
Falcons, the Falcons will have beat the Cowboys, and the Cowboys will
have beat the Owls. Quite a love triangle. There might not be anything
to sort out in the end, however, since Air Force hasn't had much of a
problem with Rice the past two seasons. The Academy won 45-17 in 1996
and 41-12 last year, and Rice had a better team both of those seasons.
21. Georgia Tech vs. Wake Forest . . . (Opened Georgia Tech -14) -
Georgia Tech has won the last three matchups SU between these two teams,
but is only 1-2 ATS in those games as two were settled by three points
combined. Three years ago, Tech beat Wake Forest 24-23 and last year
they won 28-26. In between, they won 30-10. It is never a gimmie with
the Yellow Jackets.
22. Miami, Florida vs. Pittsburgh . . . [Thursday, November 19] (Opened
Miami -21) - If Miami wins here, and Syracuse does what they're supposed
to at Temple, next week will be a showdown between the Hurricanes and
Orangemen for the Big East title. Pittsburgh and Temple have just two
wins each this season.
23. Virginia Tech vs. Rutgers . . . (Opened Virginia Tech -25.5) - Va Tech
probably lost all chance for the Big East title when Syracuse scored on
the last play of the game to win 28-26 last week. Syracuse would have to
lose to Temple (2-8 SU) and then to Miami, Florida (who the Hokies have
already beat this season) the next week. They may take their aggressions
out on Rutgers, but they'd rather take them out on Virginia next week.
24. Syracuse @ Temple . . . (Opened Syracuse -26) - First, read the two
last paragraphs (on No.22 Miami, Fla. and No.23 Va. Tech). Now you know
the Big East picture. So, why are the Hokies ranked above the Orangemen?
Syracuse won 60-7 over Temple last year. Guess what they're looking
forward to.
25. Texas lost to Texas Tech 42-35 last week. Next vs. No.6 Texas A&M
(Friday, 11/27/98).
©1997-1998 ElitePicks. All Rights Reserved.
