ROD'S FEBRUARY 1, 1999 NEWSLETTER

ROD'S FEBRUARY 1, 1999 NEWSLETTER ... ROD'S FEBRUARY 1, 1999 NEWSLETTER Minnesota Timberwolves I know in ...
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I know in every draft, the first 4 picks should be: Malone, Duncan, Shaq and David Robinson.
No complaint there. The 5th pick should be Payton due to the fact he rates out as number one. BUT…..Take Kevin Garnett as early as possible and never feel bad at leaving anyone else on the table. He is going to be so good for so long it is scary. With Gugliotta gone last year, he got better. Nothing else to say. If you are reading this letter, you know how good he is. You don’t need me to tell you to take him. Dean Garrett is back where he had his best year. Just look at last year’s stats, and increase the FG% to 50% or more. In Denver, where the team sucked, he shot more and poorly. In Minnesota, with their firepower, he will just score on put-backs. He is a good 8th round pick. Joe Stiff, I mean Smith is signed and will play the small forward. His blocks, hell, his whole game has gone in the toilet since his rookie year. You think he will be sulking about not signing for $80 million last year and getting stuck with “only” $1.75 million this year? You bet, but he will be trying to salvage a career, and he has talent. I look for an improvement and you can probably steal him in the 7th or 8th round and it will be a great bargain. UPDATE ON JOE SMITH. He sprained his ankle and the coach has said that the will have “little impact” for the first 10 to 20 games. THAT lowers his value so talk him up to other players and get someone to take him too early. Marbury is overrated for our purposes. His FT% is too low for a point guard and his FG% is not good. He belongs at the end of the stud point guards, and I wouldn’t take him till the mid 3rd round at best. But someone will take him and leave you Kidd, Stoudamire or Brandon. That is fine. Cassell out ranks him also, but you won’t find many who will take Sam over him. I wouldn’t either and I will tell you why in the New Jersey analysis. Peeler had great stats in the 30 games he played in Min last year after coming over from Vancouver. He hit tons of 3’s and got steals. While there may not be enough balls to get him more than 13 or 14 points, he should be a steal in the 9th round. He is reported to be sporting a “sore knee” during training camp. He is also said to be ready opening night. Sam Mitchell was on my sleeper list until they signed Joe Stiff. Still might be worth a risk as his stats in 41 games last year after Gugs got injured were very solid. With Joe Smith slow to start, he should give you a few good weeks. Bobby Jackson and Malik Sealy are good backups, but not draftable. Stanley Roberts should be taken in the 1st round if your league counts “Fat Burgers Eaten” as a category. If not, then forget Stanley. Everyone else has.

There is probably not a team in the NBA with as much talent depth as the Nets. Too bad only 5 can play at a time and there is only one ball. EVERY player here plus some subs would be draftable fairly high based on talent. Last year in our league, 6 Nets were drafted as it was. Some will not be able to repeat their scoring average, and that starts with Cassell. He had a great year scoring 19ppg. Can’t do that much again. Coach wants him to pass more and shoot less. Still, take him in the 4th round. Backed up by Murdock who I would have drafted had he signed with the Clippers. Can’t draft him here. Kerry Kittles is a stud. But is only worth a 5th round pick (OK, maybe a 4th). There are too many good shooting guards in the NBA and you can’t draft more than 1 in the first 4 rounds. Kittles is hurt now but not as bad as previously reported. He may only miss 2 weeks. Move him to the 6th round. That may help you if others think he will miss 4 weeks or so. Kendall Gill is a stud when he starts. But he is playing small forward and backup shooting guard and his stats last year dropped drastically after the first 20 games. Oh, did I mention that is when Keith Van Horn came back? He is another stud. Take Gill in the 11th round if at all. Van Horn is a 4th round pick. Jayson Williams will be an even bigger stud rebounder this year. He has worked out and is in great shape. He is worth a 5th round pick. Seikaly should start at center but may come off the bench with Jayson playing out of position at center. Rony is ok when he starts, a 9th round pick if healthy, which he isn’t now so I wouldn’t take him till the 12th round so you can replace him quickly with a healthy body. Gatling is solid off the bench, but too many players there for him to be the scorer he can be. I have to say, this team could go far if they can play team ball. What great talent. When in doubt during a draft, take a Net.

Can Patrick Ewing’s knees hold up to this tough schedule? He already has hurt his knee. Do you want to be the owner to find out? He should come back strong and have solid “Ewing” stats, worthy of an early 2nd round pick, but I won’t take him. He will be sitting out a game a week, making 5-game weeks into 4 and 4-game weeks into 3. And taking off lots of time in blowouts. Old and bad knees. NOT a good combination. Camby may not even start. Word is Van Gundy is thinking of going with a small lineup with Larry “the perennial stiff” Johnson at power forward and Camby on the bench. Still, take Marcus in the 8th round for the blocks and potential. Let someone else take Larry Johnson. I think he has little left for us fantasy players. Sprewell will play a lot of small forward and that is NOT his position. But Latrell has always produced the stats, so take him in the 4th round if he is still there. Alan Houston is one of my favorite players…in Detroit…or in New York without Ewing. That means I have to wait another year or two before he is my man. Take him in the 7th round if he is still there, or in the 6th round if you really need a shooting guard badly. Charlie Ward is a nice point guard, with surprisingly good stats excluding scoring. If you trash scoring early, take Ward in the 4th round, otherwise he is a 5th rounder. Don’t bother with Childs or Chris Dudley. If I have to tell you not to draft Dudley, you need more help than I can provide in such a short time. You would have to sign up for my “Big Stiffs Camp” where I make you write on the board 100 times a day “do not take Chris Dudley”. Dennis Scott used to be draftable, but you can’t him now unless Sprewell or Houston get hurt.

Penny Hardaway summed up the greed of the agents and players in the NBA with this comment he made after the settlement: “Now that we can’t get $15 to 20 million contracts anymore, we just have to play for the love of the game.” Penny must love the game cause he will come back big this year. Take him early 3rd round. Nick Anderson, in the last 32 games of the season last year averaged 22 ppg and was awesome. Expect better than usual stats, but not that good. If they sign a true point guard and a small forward, it will hurt him, but his ego is back and should be a great steal in the 6th round giving you 4th round stats. Outlaw was super last year. Don’t expect it again. With Ike “Hands-of-Stone” Austin at center and Horace Grant and Derek Strong at forwards, if they get a point guard to move Penny to shooting guard and Nick to small forward, Outlaw gets to come off the bench. I would be very afraid to take him before the 7th round (and he won’t be there) unless you trash points early. Horace Grant is a nice 8th round pick. Don’t bother with Strong, Benoit or Armstrong. Doleac has promise, but they wasted money signing Austin. Ike is such a poor basketball player, it just goes to show you how the NBA GM’s will believe anything agents say. Ike’s agent claimed that Ike was “better that Vlade”! Well, I am not sure at what. It surely isn’t basketball in any form. I watched Austin after he came to the Clippers and he sucked. Shot 45% from the floor and 67% from the FT line. Dropped EVERY pass thrown to him. Got tired after running down the court 3 times (and this was mid-season, how did Riley let him stay in such bad shape?), and played no defense. But his agent talked him up all year. Since he is a starter and will shoot come hell or high water, take him no sooner than the 8th round. But pray some other sucker takes him and then laugh like a hyena. Oh, and Bill Fitch played him over Lo Wright to improve Ike’s free agent money (everyone knew he would never resign with the Clips) and repress Wright’s progress. Ike should send Bill a thank-you card. Dominique Wilkens is likely to sign here. If he does, take him if you need scoring and 3’s. He can do that well.

What a team. Well, not really a team, but a group of selfish players. Some, however, have left. Iverson, the gangsta, the “role model”, the tremendous athlete. A mid 2nd round pick, but his assists are going down. Kills you in a league that also counts turnovers. FT% stinks too. But is improving. I like Larry Hughes a lot. He will play some point and can handle the ball. Grab him in the 11th round when no one is looking and you will get a bargain. Ratliff blocks shots but doesn’t rebound much or score. But I like him in the 5th round this year as a power forward. Geiger is the starting center and will surprise everyone. The surprise will be that THIS GUY AIN’T THAT GOOD. There was no need for the players to worry about the “middle class”. The GM’s always overpay some poor slob who has a “career ½ year”. The did it with Childs, Campbell, McIllvaine (he didn’t even have a good ½ year) and Brent Price. Now it is Geiger’s turn. His many weaknesses will be exposed, like lack of any talent. He will rebound some, but not worth a pick earlier than the 7th round. Speaking of McIlvaine, he backs up Geiger. Don’t draft him. Tim Thomas is going to be a star! Shoots 3’s and can score. Didn’t get a lot of minutes last year, so you can steal him in the 12th round. Of course, his preseason games have sucked bad, but he has talent and will play. Aaron McKie and Eric Snow may not see the court with Hughes here now, but you never know with Larry Brown.

I vowed last year to never take another player under “Coach Mental”. His coaching kills fantasy owners. Look what he did when he had Finley….platooned him! I watched a game against the Clippers when “Mental” Ainge was getting all this credit for his “platoon” system, bringing in a whole new lineup each quarter. Finley hit his first 8 shots in the 1st quarter and was so hot Ainge had to keep him in at the start of the 2nd quarter. Of course, when he missed his 1st shot in the quarter, he was sat down and didn’t play till the 3rd quarter. And then he traded him. Good move Danny! It has worked so far, but his system sucks and McDyess is now draftable when he doesn’t have to come out so Mark “bleeping” Bryant can get his minutes. Take Kidd in the 3rd round or late 2nd, Chapman maybe in the 12th and Gugliotta in the late 2nd (and pray the “mental” giant doesn’t platoon him). Don’t bother with Longley as he sucks as it is. McCloud will get some 3’s if he plays much and Manning is a good stat man, but in the short year with a plethora of games a week, his body may not hold up well. Both of them are 12th round picks or reserve players.

I love Damon Stoudamire. Take him in the 2nd round. He will play better this year and is better than Marbury for fantasy owners (who count FT%). Sabonis is a stud in the stat category, worthy of a 5th round pick (would have been a 2nd if he had knees and was younger), but again, same worry as with Danny Manning. Too many games in too short a span. Rasheed Wallace had a much better year than I dreamed he could. He even blocked shots. I don’t think much of him as a player or in fantasy though, as he is a black-hole for assists and steals. Since he starts and scores, a 6th round pick of him is fine. I like Brian Grant a lot but apparently the coach doesn’t. He plays well when healthy and is a solid 8th round pick. Since he plays behind Rasheed, he may have to be left until the 12th round. I think they are a better team with Grant at power forward, but I am not coaching them. Cato is a shot-blocking fool, but won’t get enough time behind Sabonis. Jermaine O’Neal would be a junior in college and showing how good he is. Now he sits on the bench, with all us fantasy guys knowing that if he played, we’d draft him in the 5th round. He sits, we draft others. Walt Williams can do a lot of things like shoot 3’s, rebound, get assists and score. He just can’t do them on the bench. He needs to spend more time at small forward to get drafted, then he becomes a 7th round pick. Bonzi Wells was drafted by Detroit from Ball State. He led the nation is steals. He will be the best “steals” guard in basketball this year “on the bench”. Don’t bother with him. I like him a lot, but he won’t play. Isaiah Rider is a great “craps” player who also plays basketball. When he isn’t shooting craps in the alley, he hits 3’s and scores in Portland. No steals, but enough other stuff to be a solid 5th round pick. He could go higher, but there are too many shooting guards available and you will become the “Beavis” of the league if all you draft is “2” guards.

The national media is wrong: David Robinson is a winner and a stud. He hasn’t had the backcourt to make him a winner and it isn’t because he is soft. Take him in the top 4 picks and when healthy, NO ONE can play any better. He is older now and has Duncan to help, but his stats are superb. Tim Duncan is also a top 4 player. I would take him over David just because he has “young legs”. Did you know that after the all-star break last year, he shot 74% FT? Of course you didn’t, but it is a great improvement over the first 40 games. Karl Malone shot under 60% as a rookie, but his work ethic made him improve his FT%. I think Duncan is that way. I would take him NUMBER 1. Sean Elliott has to show a lot to get drafted. Even if he is back shooting 3’s and scoring, he does little else. Mario Ellie may be a nice 12th round pick as he gets steals and hits 3’s. Avery Johnson is always worth a 9th round pick for some assists and steals. He doesn’t hurt your FG%, but shoots poor FT%. At least he doesn’t shoot many FT. Kerr is not worth anything. Jaren Jackson is a starter who actually does nothing to make you want to even know who he is. You’d get as good of stats from LaToya Jackson. Purdue and Kersey are great backups for real life basketball. They just do nothing for us. Antonio Daniels is worthless unless Avery gets hurt. Then Daniels is only slightly better than worthless.

Ah, Oscar Robertson must be turning over in his grave looking at what his old Cincinnati Royals have become. Oscar is still alive you say? He won’t be if he watches this franchise. The only player ever to AVERAGE a triple double for the season must cringe at the thought of taking a stud like Jason Williams, who had problems with “pot” in college, and supporting him with Chris Webber and now they SIGNED VERN MAXWELL! If I were the GM of this team, the first thing I would check in the morning would not be the boxscore, but the police blotter. Take Chis Webber in the top 7 players and hold your breath he doesn’t whine or sulk or get hurt trying to turn an easy dunk into an ESPN highlight film. Worse yet, his coach might suggest he play smart basketball and then Chris will demand to be traded because he “can’t have any fun on the court”. Apparently winning isn’t fun to Chris. Still, he is a marvelous athlete. Just figure if you take him, the only team you may beat in FT% is the team drafting Shaq. “Scoreless” Williamson became a solid player last year. Still only rates an 7th round pick. Rookie point guard Jason Williams is no secret. He is the real thing and should be taken by the late 4th round. CAVEAT: Kevin Johnson is talking about playing out the year in his home town. Yes, Sacramento is his home town. Will hurt Jason’s stats in the short term tremendously. He then becomes a 7th round pick. Long term, he will still be a stud. There is no shooting guard in Sacramento. OK, Vern Maxwell is a shooting guard. Then there is no “making baskets” guard in Sacramento. Vern will launch whenever he gets to his favorite spot on the court, which just happens to be where ever he gets the ball. Don’t draft him. I am going to tell you who the deepest “sleeper” in the draft is: Predrag Stojakovic. Who? He was their draft choice the prior year, but played in Greece for the 3rd year in a row and was the MVP. A big man who can shoot. If Corliss hadn’t signed, he would have been the steal of the draft. Now the concern is time. Watch him carefully, as he will be a stud. I guarantee it! When the Charlotte Hornets were trying to sign Ike Austin, his agent said: “They are getting a great young player who is better than Vlade”. HUH? In what area? Vlade is a solid player worthy of a 5th round pick. He beats Austin in every category except scoring, and that is because he doesn’t shoot as much (it would be advisable to Austin to shoot less based on his FG%, but that isn’t the way the world is). If you can talk someone into taking Austin ahead of Divac, do it. Vlade is a superb player for your team. Abdul-Wahad should be the shooting guard here. He can score, but may not get the ball enough. Doesn’t do much else.

Payton rates number 1 for the second year in a row. Still wouldn’t take him until the 5th or 6th pick. I hate trying to win taking a point guard first, but he justifies it. Baker is so overrated in fantasy ball it isn’t funny. He rates out as about a 5th round pick using our 8 categories, but will go in the 3rd. Absolutely KILLS your FT% and doesn’t get the assists he used to. Scores, rebounds, blocks some shots and has great FG% with a steal a game. Sabonis out-rates him. But Vin shows up every day, so I’d take him in the 4th round, but he won’t be there. Let him go and take a better all-around player like Abdul-Rahim or Gugliotta. Polynice signed as center and he bangs the boards and hustles. He is worth a 10th round pick. Hersey Hawkins always seems to be doing nothing, and rates a 5th round pick when you see his stats. Great steals, hits 3’s and good %’s. Could score more this year with a different coach and offense. Dale Ellis hits 3’s and does nothing else. Don’t take him. Billy Owens is a nice all-around player who will kill your FT%. But someone has to back up Detlef Schrempf. Detlef is worthy of a 5th round pick as his stats always are solid, but I fear his age this year, and with Owens in the wings, he may rest more. Let him slide to the 7th round. Don’t take Owens.

This team is a mess. I would be afraid to draft any Raptor except Christie, who could be traded and won’t be worth as much elsewhere. Too many front court players. Too few minutes. Oakley and Willis will play because they are “veterans”, like this team needs veteran leadership to finish last. They need to play and develop youngsters. Michael Stewart should start and block shots but that is all. 11th round pick. Willis will be a rebounding fool. 8th round. John Wallace played superb when he got minutes. If he gets minutes, 8th round. McGrady showed brillance when he played. Just his last 33 games rates him as a solid pick. If he gets minutes, he will get blocks in addition to the normal stats for a guy of his size. Then he is a 6th round pick. But he won’t play enough. Oakley always gets steals, assists, rebounds and solid % even if he doesn’t score. A solid 8th round pick with the right team and minutes. Vince Carter is a great looking rookie who should play the off guard, but may see some time at small forward. Can’t shoot FT’s well either. Could be another Stackhouse, but I doubt it. He should be better. With minutes, a 7th round pick. If Alvin Williams beats out Michael Williams at the point, he is a 10th round pick. Don’t take him earlier because if they trade one or two of the bodies, they may get a point guard in exchange. Michael Williams is injury prone. Christie is the only certifiable stud guaranteed minutes. A solid 4th round pick. Kills you in FG%, but does everything else including blocking shots. Just ignore those 4 for 16’s from the field. Dee Brown is the designated 3-point shooter. May be worth a 12th round pick, but I don’t see a lot a minutes.

Karl Malone is a top 4 pick. Nothing else to say. Stockton has had his minutes cut, so his assists and steals have dropped. His %’s are outstanding and he still rates a late 3rd, early 4th round pick. Much sooner if you “bag” scoring. Ostertag will start out strong this year as Foster is hurt and Carr is gone. Take Greg in the 10th round. You will get blocks and some rebounds but not much else. Hornacek is like Hawkins…you never saw the stats coming like they end up. Still a solid 6th round pick. Eisley would be a pick without Stockton, but like Keefe and Anderson, not enough time or stats. Bryon Russell can be drafted on the 12th round if you are a Utah fan and want to watch him play. Don’t draft him for stats.

Bryant Reeves is a backup at the start of the season based on his looking like Moby Dick during camp. This is according to the coach. Bibby is going to be good, but I wouldn’t take him until the 5th round and he won’t be there. Rookie point guards aren’t worth the risk: See Billups and Antonio Daniels. Abdul-Rahim is a stud who is getting better. A solid early 3rd round pick. Felipe Lopez out of St. John’s will get lots of time to show his stuff. I don’t think he is worth it YET. Sam Mack has the better chance to give you good stats at the shooting guard. No other player on the team is worth drafting. No other player on the team should be in the NBA.

Rod Stickland is amazing. Take him in the late 3rd round and get your 3’s from another source (if his bleeping agent David Falk lets him sign. How I hate bleeping agents. $55 million is enough but $50 is insulting!). And get FT% help for him too. Juwan Howard will step up this year and have a great season. He gets no 3’s or blocks, but is a solid 5th round pick. Mitch Richmond is worthy of a late 2nd round pick. He always gets the stats, although his assists will drop this year. I like Tracy Murray a lot and he deserves more time at the small forward. Take him in the 9th round. Otis Thorpe is a solid 12th round pick (if the 12th round can ever be solid). Chaney has no spot now and never gave you any stats anyway.