This week I decided to put the Sophomore sires on hold. Derby week is special and all of us out there would love to breed a Derby runner. So what makes a Derby Runner? By looking at the pedigrees of the contenders can we get a better idea of what goes into breeding a Derby Runner? I’m not going to break down all twenty runners here. I’m just going to try to look at the Blue Grass Derby from a different perspective.
Looking over the pedigrees of all twenty runners the first thing that jumped out at me was that eleven runners were bred using a mare. I was a little surprised to see so many but that will become more and more common with retired mare breeding. So what kind of mares produced Derby runners? This part was a little surprising. Of the eleven mares that produced Derby runners only three were stakes winner. The best dam was the dam of #12 Edge Hopper the undefeated filly taking on the boys. Her dam was a four time stakes winner with four other in the money stakes finishes. The other two stakes winning dams were for #6 Brabawells and #9 Hawkster Well’s. Brabawells’s dam won two stakes races with three other in the money finishes and Hawkster Well’s dam won one stakes with three other in the money finishes.
The other eight dams were fair to spare. One had five wins, two had three wins, the other five had two wins or less and one was winless. The most surprising is probably the mare of the Derby favorite #5 Tuff Enuff. She had one win in nineteen starts and only modest breeding (Octagonal (NZ) X Academy Award). Another modest dam was the dam of #7 Clearance Not Me (Saratoga Six X Ahonoora (GB)). The other dams had at least one big time sire in their pedigrees.
Another thing that jumps out at you is the number of Mr. Prospector and Northern Dancer line sires that produced runners. The Mr. Prospector line produced nine of the twenty runners. The Northern Dancer line produced another eight runners so these two sire lines represent seventeen of the twenty runners. There was one runner from the Roberto line (Hawkster), one from the Riverman line (Sakhee) and one by Alydar (Strike The Gold) who you could associate with the Mr. Prospector line because Raise a Native sired both Alydar and Mr. Prospector.
Of the Northern Dancer line runners Danzig sired two and his son’s sired two others. Sadler’s Wells has two runners, Storm Cat has one, and Cat Thief has one. Danzig is this year’s most influential sire. He is represented in nine of the twenty runners. The Mr. Prospector lines were represented by many different sires from his line.
How does that compare to real life? In the real life race eight runners are from the Mr. Prospector line, five from the Northern Dancer line, three from the Seattle Slew line, two from the Icecapade line, one from the Roberto line and one by the Halo line. That is pretty close although the real life race is a little more diverse.
Our Sim runners for the most part are blue bloods. In eleven runners at least two very high-class sires were used. (Seattle Slew, Sadler’s Wells, Storm Cat, Alydar, Seeking the Gold, Danzig, Gone West, A.P. Indy, Forty Niner). Fourteen of the twenty have at least one major sire present. The six that do not have a major sire present are still bred pretty well.
Chester House X Octagonal (NZ) X Academy Award
Cryptoclearance X Saratoga Six X Ahonoora (GB)
Silver Ghost X Mountain Cat X Belong to Me
Sakhee X El Gran Senor X Dixieland Band
Wheelaway X Smarten X Sea-Bird
Strike The Gold X Forestry X Naskra
Compared to the real race there is way more blue blood in the Sim. That makes sense because the availability to blue blood in the Sim is far greater than that in real life.
I think any well thought out breeding could end up getting you to a derby but there are some things I might take into consideration. First I would look for a Mr. Prospector line sire, Danzig or Son of Danzig to use as a sire. Next I would use a major sire as either a dam sire or dam’s dam sire like Seattle Slew, Sadler’s Wells, Danzig, or Alydar. In that other sire spot I would use a less expensive but still known sire. Ultimately it is a crap shoot and you are not sure what you have until you run them. Maybe Danzig X Alydar X Sea-Bird could get me to the promise land.
I’m not much into predicting the winner of the Blue Grass Derby. I know I will be rooting for the six horses I mentioned above to beat up on the blue bloods. It is a little exciting to see that in their first class of eligible runners Wheelaway, Sakhee, and Bestyoucanbe produced derby runners. It was unusual that the Seattle Slew line is not represented with a runner especially since A.P. Indy is such a popular sire.
Hope you enjoyed the stray off the beaten path in the Breeding Corner this week. Good luck this week to all the runners in both the Oaks and Derby.
