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Brad's BIG Race Analysis

Debi Kral
Forestry(left) comes up BIG in the King's Bishop

Palm Beach, Florida U.S.A.
Thursday October 28, 1999
The 3rd Year.

Reviewed In Web-Guide Magazine

Rated the #1 free handicapping site by Horseplayer Magazine. (Sept-Oct 98)

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A Bumpy Ride From California

While it's true that the East coast preps this year were contested under conditions that participants are not likely to face at Gulfstream, there are some telling statistics from the first two runnings of the Breeders' Cup at the South Florida track.

Originally, my gut instinct told me that perhaps the horses shipping in from California would do well in Florida given the same weather conditions, for the most part. But judging from past history, that may not be the case.

In the previous 14 Cup races run at Gulfstream, only Baffert's Thirty Slews was able to post a win after running in California the previous race. Paseana made the trek to Keeneland for the Spinster in her final prep. In 1989 Sunday Silence made his final prep in the Super Derby in Louisiana. That leaves horses that made their final prep run in California a lousy 1 for 14, or just over 7%.

How about in-the-money performances? Not much better. Only 6 of the 42 ITM finishers made their final run in the Golden State. A modest 14%. Evidently, the trip from California to Florida takes more out of the runners than can be made up by sharing similar climates.

Here are the overall numbers: WINS-Belmont 7 (50%), Keeneland 4 (29%), Del Mar, Arlington, and Louisiana Downs with 1 each. ITM-Belmont 15 (36%), Keeneland 5 (11.9%), Santa Anita 4 (9.5%), France 4 (9.5%), Calder 2 (4.7%), Arlington 2 (4.7%), Meadowlands 2 (4.7%). Aqueduct, Del Mar, Hollywood, Laurel, Louisiana Downs, Pimlico,Turfway, and the United Kingdom each sent one ITM performer to Gulfstream.

Whether or not these numbers will hold up this year is anyone's guess. But it's a good bet that they do not inspire confidence in connections making the cross-country trek for the Cup.

The Breeders' Cup Edition has been updated with post times, wagering options, past Gulfstream results, contenders, and the seat views are still there.

Breeders' Cup '99

Gulfstream Seating Chart

Contenders listed and seat views still available at
Brad's BIG Race Analysis-Breeders' Cup Edition

"Crushing The Cup"
Jim Mazur turns the Breeders' Cup inside-out in search of the winning edge.
A must-have for serious Cup players!

Champions Forum
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Brad's BIG Race Analysis

TODAY'S FEATURED COLUMNS:

Quality And Quantity-Jennie Rees and The Louisvilel Courier-Journal

Stop The Confusion-Andy Beyer and The Washington Post

What Kind Of Bird Doesn't Fly?-John Crittenden and The Palm Beach Post

No Singletons This Year-Ralph Siraco and The Las Vegas Sun

Sneak Preview-Richard Eng and The Las Vegas Review-Journal

More columns are archived in The Columnists section.

Five Star Links

Lee Tomlinson's Comprehensive Pedigree Guide. Includes ratings for mud, turf, and distance capabilities. This product is tried and true. Something no serious horseplayer should be without. If you need more info or want to sign up to purchase race cards on-line check out this link.

If you have already signed up and want to download a race card you can go here. NOTE: This is a secure server. If you are accessing through a firewall you might experience problems.

The McChump® Tour begins another year. Check out the past few years and keep track of new adventures at tracks far and wide. If you're traveling to a new race track and want to get the lowdown on what to expect, this is the place.

Up Next

The next BIG Race Analysis will be here Thursday, November 4 for...

Breeders' Cup XVI

The Works

General Challenge 5f in 57:3 10-27 @ Gulfstream
Affirmed Success 4f in :46 10-27 @ Gulfstream
Middlesex Drive 4f in 47:1 10-27 @ Gulfstream
Lemon Drop Kid 5f in :59 10-26 @ Gulfstream
Behrens 5f in 1:02:2 10-25 @ Payson Park
Silverbulletday 7f in 1:27 10-25 @ Gulfstream
Hawksley Hill 7f turf in 1:33 10-25 @ Calder
Fiji 7f turf in 1:33:2 10-25 @ Calder
Five Star Day 5f in 59:4 10-25 @ Gulfstream
Surfside 5f in 1:01 10-25 @ Churchill
Tuzla 6f in in 1:13 10-25 @ Gulfstream
Delay Of Game 4f in 47:1 10-25 @ Gulfstream
Big Jag 4f in 47:3 10-25 @ Gulfstream
Cat Thief 7f in 1:28:2 10-25 @ Churchill
Lemon Drop Kid 4f in 47:2 10-21 @ Gulfstream
Yagli 5f in 1:00:4 10-21 @ Gulfstream
Affirmed Success 5f in 1:01 10-21 @ Gulfstream
Mossflower 5f in 1:01 10-21 @ Gulfstream

The Past Analyses

Appleton Handicap Broward Handicap Holy Bull Stakes Donn Handicap

Gulfstream Park BC Handicap Fountain Of Youth Gulfstream Park Handicap

Santa Anita Handicap Florida Derby Gallery Furniture.com Stakes

Blue Grass Stakes and BIG 3 Bet 3 Kentucky Derby Preakness

Belmont Stakes Stephen Foster Handicap Hollywood Gold Cup

Bowling Green Handicap Coaching Club American Oaks Whitney Handicap

Sword Dancer Invitational Alabama Stakes Travers Stakes

Pacific Classic Ramona Handicap Man O' War Stakes The Woodward

Jockey Club Gold Cup Spinster Stakes

The 1997 BIG Analyses

The 1998 BIG Analyses

The Assistance

Lee Tomlinson's Comprehensive Pedigree Guide
It didn't take long for Tomlinson to score at Saratoga! Seventh race on opening day, Wednesday the 28th. The Knight Sky, who had never run on turf before, was trying the grass for the first time. The Tomlinson rating? Only the highest in the race at 335. Result: The Knight Sky won and paid $75.50 to win, and keying a $250 exacta with Gone Fishin'. What about the third ranked turfer? He finished 3rd completing a $2,253.00 trifecta.