Partly sunny, warm, humid with scattered thunderstorms kind of day across Atlanta and North Georgia. Stagnant weather pattern that we haven't seen too much of the past 5 summers. Just take a look at the upper levels in this water vapor capture from 12:15am and upper level moisture in abundance across Georgia and across a lot of the east coast for that matter. Upper low over Missouri helping to pump in the moisture aloft and guide disturbances north and east in the southwesterly flow. Those have helped to trigger thunderstorms in the afternoon as daytime insolation takes place. All of this moisture is mostly in the form of higher level clouds which we've experienced the past few days keeping conditions from being totally clear at night and totally sunny in the afternoon. Take a look at this 700mb capture from 8pm and you see the low center in western Missouri with associated southwesterly flow ahead of it. That's a deep layer flow which is advecting in warmth and moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. Also providing a lane for the shortwaves to ride upon and generate showers and storms. Such as today when our storms come in from the southwest and moved northeast, likely initiated by a weak disturbance in the mid and upper levels. And did I mention how moist it is? Well check it out in this precipitable water capture from 8pm, and the entire state encompassed by a moist, tropical airmass with PW's over 1.8 inches in the column of air. As the flow is like it is, more in the way of higher values of precipitable water gets advected in and the end result is that most of these storms that move in have the potential to drop very heavy rain in a short amount of time. Some more than others can be fairly efficient in the amount of rain they drop. So this is the regional surface map capture from 5pm and at this time, we had a line of showers and thunderstorms down I-85 moving northeast toward metro Atlanta where we were mostly cloudy and 80 degrees and a dewpoint of 69. Heaviest rains fell across the western and northern sides of the metro, essentially to the west of the Chattahoochie River where some spots got up to a third of an inch and gusty winds on the leading edge of the storms gusting as high as 39 mph in Marietta at 7:05. Heaviest rain escaped the airport though as they had a high of 84 degrees after a morning low of 69. Those two averaged 1 degree above normal. .04 inch of rain fell in Atlanta today, again it was heavier to the west and northwest and also south of the airport with lighter amounts in the eastern metro.
From NCEP's short range forecast discussion:
THE PATTERN AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN STATES. DEEP LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY THE NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE WEAKENING BY THE
END OF DAY TWO PERIOD. WHILE MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE BORDER...STILL EXPECT SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...THEN RECOVERING ON SATURDAY
AS LOW WEAKENS.
KOSIER
From Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO NWS:
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING CONFIDENCE IS
PARTICULARLY SHAKY. SURFACE BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM THE OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION COULD CONSPIRE WITH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TO POP OFF
PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...LESS
THAT STELLAR LAPSE RATES DO NOT INSPIRE ME.
CUTTER
From Austin/San Antonio, TX NWS:
MOISTURE POOLING TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN COUNTIES COULD
MAKE FOR A VOLATILE DAY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WHEN DAYTIME
HEATING AND THE SHORTWAVE ARRIVES ON FRIDAY.
18/8
From Tucson, AZ NWS:
MONSOON BOUNDARY WELL TO THE SOUTH...NEAR LA PAZ AND HAS
MOVED SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY. AVN PULLS THIS BACK NORTHWARD SO
THAT BY MONDAY MONSOON BOUNDARY IN MEXICO IS NEAR 28N. IN
ADDITION....MOISTURE IN NEW MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH CIRCULATION
AROUND UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN TEXAS. THERE IS SOME HINT THAT THIS
MOISTURE MAY WORK INTO THE STATE THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
CLIMATOLOGY SUPPORTS THIS SINCE CHIRICAHUAS STATISTICALLY HAVE AN
INCREASE IN MONSOON STORMS BY THE MIDDLE OF JUNE...JUST IN TIME FOR
THE FIRST DAY OF THE MONSOON SEASON. QUESTION THEN REMAINS WHEN WILL
WE SEE OUR FIRST MONSOON DAY.
From Birmingham, AL NWS:
ITS THAT MOST MESOSCALE TIME OF THE YEAR.
From Mount Holly, NJ NWS:
BE CAREFUL FOR WHAT YOU ASK FOR... FOR ANYONE THAT WAS LAMENTING
WHERE IS THE WARM WX...HERE IT IS AND HERE COMES THE BILL.
TGF
From Binghamton, NY NWS:
JUST AS AN ASIDE...WE AVERAGED A DEPRESSING 32% OF PSBL SUNSHINE
DURING MAY. SO FAR THIS MONTH WE ARE AVERAGING 27%. IT JUST HAS TO
GET BETTER THAN THIS, AND THANKFULLY IT APPEARS AS THO SUNSHINE WILL
BE MAKING A WELCOME RETURN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
More overheard by clicking here.
It's a two week tour around the Atlantic and Gulf coasts looking for vulnerable areas to hurricanes. Most of the areas depicted will be places that haven't seen major hits from storms but still face a risk as all areas along the coasts in the Atlantic basin. We'll take a look at evacuation plans, hurricane histories, and potential risks from major hurricanes in the regions. Tonight, Savannah and the Georgia coast as well as the Northeast Florida coast are profiled.
savannah/georgia coast
If there's ever been an area within the southeastern coast of the U.S. that has been lucky from getting hit by major hurricanes recently, its been the Georgia coast. Major storms such as Hugo, Fran, and Floyd all stayed north of Georgia affecting the Carolina coasts. The last time a hurricane made landfall along the Georgia coast was 1979 when David came in at Savannah Beach as a strong category 1 storm with winds around 90 mph and a storm surge up to 5 feet. The city of Savannah reported a maximum sustained wind of 58 mph. They also picked up close to 7 inches of rain. No major damage was reported there. The 1940s were an active decade for hurricanes in Georgia. In 1947, a category 1 hurricane approached from the due west and slammed right to the south of Savannah with the storm surge helping to cause a lot of damage along the city's riverfront to warehouses. A similiar situation occured in 1940 as a category 1 hurricane came in from the east killing 50. But the last major hurricane to hit Georgia was in 1893 when a category 3 struck near Brunswick and it helped bring a storm surge that inundated the city in a half a foot of water for 12 hours. 2,000 people were killed in that hurricane in the south Atlantic region.
Savannah and the Georgia coast are the not the most populated areas in the region but still present difficulties in evacuation planning. With the many barrier islands along the coast, there's usually only one way out and with the lowlying nature of this part of the Southeast, heavy rain or high tide could flood that route stranding those trying to escape. Even when the weather is nice pre-hurricane strike, evacuations can be painstakingly difficult as was the case in 1999 during Floyd. There was slow going getting patients in hospitals out and going inland on I-16 west out of Savannah. Many people had to drive past Macon to Atlanta to find shelter due to the overwhelming retreat of residents. Savannah and Chatham County does have a plan for evacuating. They have a partial evacuation, which has people from all of the islands, lowlying areas, waterfront properties, freshwater flood prone areas, and mobile homes and unstable structures to go inland. A full evacuation is when everyone leaves no matter what and that would depend on the severity of the storm. Shelters would be open in inland Chatham County during a category 1 or 2 storm but for a major hurricane, those would not be available and evacuees would have to keep going inland for safe shelter. Evacuating would probably be via I-16 which would be westbound for 125 miles from Savannah to Dublin on both sides of the freeway. There would be opportunities to exit a couple of times off U.S. highways along the route. People without transportation out of town would have to take a city bus to the Civic Center which would be the public shelter. In Brunswick and in the Golden Isles, the evacuation routes would be all state and U.S. highways going north and west inland. Does not include I-95. those going toward Waycross could be merging with evacuees from Jacksonville complicating the process. A hurricane wouldn't have to be too strong to make things difficult as a category 1 could bring enough rain to cause flooding of many roads while a category 2 storm would cut off virtually every evacuation route on the coast. So the flood of evacuees leaving the barrier islands for higher ground is life saving for them.
The main threats from major hurricanes in Savannah and the Georgia coast would be the storm surge and tidal flooding. A direct hit from a strong category 1 or 2 would be enough to send water well inland and cut off roads. The area is very marshy and low lying with many rivers so that would also be a concern for increased runoff. Plus, the concavity of the coast lends itself to more piling up of the water so storm surge is a major issue and a major reason they want people off those islands. A storm coming in could flood many structures even inland away from the coast that are along river beds. Flooding from heavy rain is also a major concern due to the lowlying terrain of the area and that water could collect rather rapidly. Wind would not normally be too much of a problem due to the lack of major structures along the immediate coast. There are many places along the Georgia coast that aren't really inhabited that much. According to hurricanecity.com, the Georgia coast should get affected before the end of the 2006 hurricane season.
northeast florida
The most lucky portion of Florida as far as hurricanes go must be the northeast coast from Daytona Beach to Jacksonville. This area hasn't been affected by a major hurricane since 1964 with plenty of brushes by hurricanes and hits by tropical storms in between. Dora was a category 3 hurricane when it struck St. Augustine in 64. Winds sustained at 100 mph at St. Augustine and 82 mph in Jacksonville were recorded. It was the first and only time hurricane force winds had been reached in Jacksonville. Tidal flooding due to prolonged storm surge, strong winds were a major issue along the coast from Daytona Beach northward into the city of Jacksonville along the St. John's River with extensive wind damage to buildings right along the coast. The slow movement of the storm brought 2 feet of rain well inland causing massive flooding. In 1960, Donna came through from the back door emerging at Daytona Beach as a category 3 hurricane causing extensive wind damage there. Winds there recorded around 100 mph. And that's basically it as far as major hurricanes in the area in the last 100 or so years.
Evacuations in Daytona Beach are based on different zones in the city and on the expected intensity of the hurricane. Naturally, those living on the barrier island off the coast of the city would evacuate first with areas a few blocks inland in Daytona Beach having to evacuate in the event of a category 4 or 5 storm. Those evacuating would have an influx of other Floridaians evacuating from the south and west into the city creating quite the bottleneck. Especially if from I-4 where that would be one way leaving Tampa and Orlando right into Daytona. Most areas would go northwest away from Daytona. In Jacksonville, the primary route out would be I-10 which would be one way west to Tallahassee. Also going north into Georgia on US 1 would be an option. The city has the plan broken into zones where different portions of Jacksonville, even inland especially along the St. John's River, would evacuate. With such a large population and the evacuees from the south, that would be a large traffic jam waiting to happen. That combined with the fact that the region hasn't seen a major hurricane in almost 40 years may provide some reluctance among some members of the population that may wait till its too late.
Major threats from hurricanes in Northeast Florida would include every byproduct. The low lying area of the coast with many rivers and tributaries would make it a prime candidate for lots of tidal flooding and freshwater flooding from heavy rainfall. That was seen in Dora in 64. Bridges could wash out, homes could float away, and many damages due to high water would result. Also, storm surge flooding would tear into barrier islands like the ones off St. Augustine and Daytona Beach. With many structures along the coast from Jacksonville Beach south, strong wind would scatter debris all around and even in the city of Jacksonville which is miles inland, buildings could suffer damage from debris carried in the strong wind. A storm like Dora hitting today would have been quite a nightmare more than it was even in 1964. The magnitude of the damage would be many times over and if it happened then, it can certainly happen again.
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 935 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2003 ...STRING OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ENDS... THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR THE DAY YESTERDAY WAS 1 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WAS THE FIRST DAY SINCE MAY 19TH THAT THE DAY WAS ABOVE NORMAL IN TEMPERATURE. THUS...THE STRETCH OF DAYS COOLER THAN NORMAL ENDS AT 22...AN EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH NUMBER. THIS HAS BEEN QUITE AN UNUSUAL SPRING AS FAR AS COOL TEMPERATURES AND EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS OF RAIN.
Thanks to the Nashville NWS for that. Those types of days are bonus days because you know once summer gets rolling along, people will be wishing for the cool weather. Through that stretch of below normal days it was wet. In fact, May was their second wettest ever in middle Tennessee with 10.73 inches recorded in Nashville. So with all of the clouds keeping temperatures down, its no surprise they had below normal temperatures for so long. Despite the cool weather, May ended up 0.1 degree above normal due to warm overnight lows. Before the stretch of cool days, they recorded 22 days with at or above normal temperatures from late April into late May.
More facts of the day by clicking here
That station is Camp Springs, MD from the 5:47pm EDT special METAR report. Two clusters of severe thunderstorms raked the Washington, DC metro area Thursday evening. The storms developed west of the city and moved right over the area during the late afternoon first and then during the evening. Strong winds brought down numerous trees and caused roof and window damage in the city. Heavy rains that followed quickly flooded city streets. The afternoon rush hour was quite a mess in Washington for a second straight day. So deciphering this report, winds were out of the southwest at 35 mph, gusting to 83 mph. There was one-eighth of a mile visibility in a heavy thunderstorm with an overcast cumulonimbus ceiling of 500 feet. The temperature was 73 degrees with a dewpoint of 70 degrees. Pressure was 29.90 inches. The thunderstorm was overhead and moving north. It arrived there 7 minutes earlier coming from the west. Frequent lightning soon occured and there was another strong wind gust, the result of wet downbursts, just before 6pm at 49 mph. 0.62 inch fell in Camp Springs during the early evening with heavier rain over an inch in many parts of Washington.
More line of the day by clicking here.
RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA NE 637 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2003 ...RECORD PRECIPITATION EVENT IN LINCOLN... A RECORD RAINFALL OF 3.01 INCHES WAS SET AT THE LINCOLN AIRPORT TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 2.30 INCHES SET BACK IN 1947. LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL SO AN ADDITIONAL 0.01 INCH OR SO IS POSSIBLE.
For more info on which records fell, check out Recent Record Reports
 binghamton,ny doppler radar | the weather chase is on for friday in northeastern pennsylvania and southern parts of upstate new york where we have a low pressure area and associated cold and warm front in the area. in the warm sector and north and east of the warm front, expect scattered strong to severe thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon hours. main threat will be damaging wind from wet microburst as the area is under very high moisture content surface to aloft. the risk is there as well for an isolated tornado with low cloud heights and sufficient shearing and this is most likely in the southern new york portion of the area. large hail also can't be ruled out as an upper cold poll traverses the northern portion of the area. storms that develop have the potential to produce very heavy rainfall that could lead to flooding. on location: williamsport, pa scranton/wilkes barre, pa binghamton, ny |
| models of the choice: ruc/eta/gfs pretty much the same forecast ideals of a few days ago as we head into the fathers day weekend. we remain in a very moist, unstable airmass over georgia and weak disturbances are enough to trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms. in fact, there's a few isolated showers across the area early this morning. otherwise it'll remain mostly cloudy with a low by 8am of 69 degrees. friday looks to be mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms from late morning on. rainfall could be heavy as well and there could be some urban and small stream flood concerns for parts of the area. a high today of 82 degrees. tonight, the showers and storms dominish with a low of 68. a front over the ohio valley will make inroads into the northern portion of the state this weekend and stall out. we remain south of the boundary in the warm, moist airmass so look for scattered showers and thunderstorms saturday with mostly cloudy skies and perhaps some dry air would seep through sunday for there to be partly sunny skies with widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. highs in the low to mid 80s, lows around 70. part of that front wedges south and east as strong high pressure builds down the mid-atlantic. depending on the strength of that wedge, will influence our temperatures for the first part of next week. front should be a focus for showers and thunderstorms and with a weak upper wind pattern, heavy rain could result from the pulse storms as they could just sit in one area. highs should be below normal with the increased cloudiness, expected rain, and perhaps cooler temperatures on northeast wind. wanna look at other forecasts, check these out | |
noaa picture of the day
current moon phase
time and temperature
ir satellite
vis satellite
peachtree city nws radar
jet stream
current map
water vapor map
watches and warnings