When the GRID dies . . .
<![CDATA[ Gilbert Schmidt - - May 23, 2007
DocScience@hotmail.com ]]>
Introduction
We are wasting the most valuable resource that we have on this planet.
Instead of using fossil fuels to build energy devices that will be useful for hundreds of years, we are just burning them for a one time brief benefit to heat our homes and to drive our vehicles.
It does not have to be this way.
Read what the future holds, not the distant future,
but your children’s future and probably yours.
Because it is now so late, the solution will devastate the economy, but by not doing so, it will be far worse.
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When our fossil fuels [ oil , NG (natural gas) , and coal ] start to run low , we will lose the electricity grid.
Think about what that means: no Internet, computers, lights, fridges, electric stoves, water heaters, TVs, telecommunications, radios, CDs, VCRs, clocks, plug in telephones, washers, dryers, computers, and anything else that you plug in. Your oil furnace uses electricity to run, but there will be nothing to burn for heat, anyway.
Even if we all had wood stoves, the forests would be gone in a very short time.
We will truly be cold and in the dark.
It looks like the world will start to run low on oil in probably less then 10 years
(r.1) and, like oil, NG is already running out in North America (r.2). You still hear
people saying that we have coal to last for hundreds of years. This is very incorrect. Two new studies on coal conclude that, because of increased use of coal (r.3), worldwide, we will reach PEAK COAL in about 15 years (r.4) and then start running out. Nuclear power has very serious waste problems that many people try to ignore.
Within 20 years, we will not just be running out of all the “fossil fuels“ , we will be in a very severe energy shortage. It will be somewhere around that time when we lose our electrical grid permanently, and people will accelerate stealing of the power lines from the poles to sell for scrap. They will strip the telephone and cable wires on those same poles (r.15). Many people think that new technology will save us.
They think that we have such affluence because of our technology.
This is a big misconception.
Our world is as affluent as it is because of the use of cheap plentiful energy. Our technology only helped us to make use of the fossil fuels. You can understand how useless all of those technical electrical devices are when the grid goes down. None of them operate without our electrical grid, and backup batteries only last so long.
People continue to think that technology will save us. Technology is not an energy source but it already has given us the solutions. It has given us the most useful of renewable energy sources: modern wind generators , solar panels, and passive solar heating arrangements. For transportation, the railway is, by far, the most energy efficient (r.5), as it can also be powered, to a large extent , by wind generators and solar panels through electricity (r.6).
It has been shown that we can survive comfortably in a solar powered home if it is designed correctly and well insulated.
The problem is that the “payback period” (r.7) to build windmills and solar panels is longer than what people wish to pay, and so they prefer to buy NG, oil and coal. They burn that to heat their homes and for hot water heating, thus speeding along the end of these “one time only” fossil fuels.
Remember that when the fossil fuels run low, that is the end of gasoline , diesel oil , and the end of constructing ANY vehicle of any type, including hybrid and energy efficient vehicles, because VEHICLE CONSTRUCTION TAKES TOO MUCH ENERGY. Paving of roads takes too much oil, so road paving will end well before the fuels even run low (r.8).
The solution to stopping the loss of the grid in 20 years, is to stop wasting the energy now.
Instead of ending all vehicle construction right now, the only workable step is to put an immediate two dollar per litre tax on all gasoline , diesel oil, and heating oil. This is to immediately force people to put in solar heating systems and stop the waste of valuable oil merely for driving in luxury instead of taking the mass transit. Where we do not have mass transit, we must build it. That’s some of what the taxes can be used for.
We need to build a million kilometers of railway track in North America, to compensate for roads that are not sustainable (r.9). We need 10 million windmills (r.10) for electrical and heating energy. We need even more solar panels for home heating.
It will take more than 20 years to build this infrastructure, using ALL the remaining fossil fuels .
Even though you hear so much about windmill construction and solar panel design, we have not built 1 percent of what we should have built every year to reach our goals.
Because of our inaction, we will run out of the energy needed (r.14) to build all this infrastructure (r.11), long before we have built even a few percent of the necessary alternative energy infrastructure .
To build 10 million windmills in 20 years, we need to construct a half million per year, every year for 20 years. We have not even constructed 1 % of the windmills needed in North America during any of the previous 20 years. How many houses in your area have any solar panels ?
People think that this “techno society” is going to continue on, as it has been for as long as they can remember. If immediate action is not taken to SPREAD THIS INFORMATION and make major changes, the electrical grid will be history WHEN YOUR CHILDREN REACH THE AGE THAT YOU ARE NOW.
Even if this coming energy crises is delayed by 10 years, it does not make that much difference as your children will still be the ones to see it happen. Remember that it can begin much sooner then 20 years. Grid shutdowns have ALREADY STARTED HAPPENING in some of the poorer counties (r.12).
These poorer countries did not build the alternate energy devices because those devices cost more than those countries wanted to pay at that time. Now the devices cost more than the people can afford. Now, they live with much less, just as we will be forced to do likewise in the near future. It takes lots of cheap plentiful energy to build any amount of alternate energy devices. As the price of oil rises, resources will become not just scarcer, but far too expensive for most people to afford (r.13).
You can start to protect yourself now. You MUST put in one of those wind or solar heating sources, to heat your home and domestic hot water, to be COMPLETELY INDEPENDENT FROM THE GRID for any part of the year. That way, when the grid does go down for an extended period in the winter, you won’t freeze. It will be far cheaper to do this now, while you can still afford copper pipes for alternative heating systems. The price of copper is now more than 4 times the price it was in 2002. If the present resource price increases continue (r.13), they could double again in as short as TWO YEARS. Time is running out rapidly.
Furthermore, you will be saving much more money, as the price of fuel goes up. (r.16)
The reason we are sure to lose the grid sooner than later, is because, as the years go by, not enough people will switch to alternatives, or build the infrastructure they need. You will see continued WASTE of the remaining fossil fuels energy put into VEHICLE CONSTRUCTION, driving, road PAVING AND ROAD CONSTRUCTION, until energy is too expensive and scarce to continue. You will not see the railroads or the wind generators, or the solar panels being built IN THE NUMBERS NEEDED.
The struggle for “business as usual” attitude (WASTING fossil fuels) will continue until there is not enough energy left to build the alternate renewable energy devices needed (r.14). Even before that time, prices will become too expensive for most people to afford any changes. I fully believe that it will be too late to make the changes when people, in large numbers, finally understand the problem. I say this because I have studied all the energy supplies and the technologies, until I understood the issues thoroughly. When we told people about the problem, many dismissed it, without even studying the problem; somehow thinking somebody else will fix it.
I have studied this coming crises for several years, and see it DEVELOPING AS EXPECTED. In that time, all we have heard is talk of alternatives. No real progress has been made; NOT IN THE QUANTITIES NEEDED. Efficient light bulbs are a small start, but they will hardly make a dent in the overall picture.
We do not have to have a cold future in the dark, if we want to make a better future for our children.
IF you care, the most important action is to spread this information and demand change.
Will you do something now or would you prefer “business as usual” until its too late ?
References
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1. Chart showing falling oil discovery
http://wolf.readinglitho.co.uk/chartpages/r/r4oildiscons.html
http://www.wolfatthedoor.org.uk/chartpages/r/r4oildiscons.html
http://i129.photobucket.com/albums/p237/1ace11/ASPOIreland2007.jpg
The above link has a link to it in "http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2716"
Oil depletion rates compared
http://www.oilcrash.com/articles/arnett05.htm
“PEAK OIL, TOTAL COLLAPSE, AND THE ROAD TO THE OLDUVAI”
a commentary by Perry Arnett _ 18 April 2007
2. “Natural Gas[p]! A conversation with an Industry Insider ” Tuesday, April 19, 2005
http://unplanning.blogspot.com/2005/04/natural_gasp_conversation_with.html
http://www.energybulletin.net/5517.html
3. Increasing use of coal statistics
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/pdf/coal.pdf
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html
World Energy Use Projected to Grow
http://www.eia.doe.gov/neic/press/press283.html
http://www.energybulletin.net/29980.html
“Peak coal: sooner than you think” by Richard Heinberg
Published 21 May 2007 by Energy Bulletin
http://www.energybulletin.net/29919.html
4. Reaching Peak Coal in 15 years.
http://www.energybulletin.net/29496.html “Coal?s future in doubt” by Richard Heinberg
http://globalpublicmedia.com/heinberg_coals_future_in_doubt 09 May 2007
http://www.energywatchgroup.org/files/Coalreport.pdf Energy Watch Group, March, 2007
5. Freight shipments by train are much more efficient then by truck
http://www.energybulletin.net/29944.html By NATE PARDUE “Freight train usage
keeps rolling higher: Passing tracks added in Dover” Sunday, May 20, 2007
A freight train can move one ton of goods 423 miles on one gallon of diesel fuel.
http://www.citizen.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?
AID=/20070520/FOSTERS01/105200326/_1/CITIZEN
A comparison of efficiency of different transportation methods
http://strickland.ca/efficiency.html
6. “Electrification of transportation as a response to peaking of
world oil production” by Alan S. Drake , Published 19 Dec 2005
http://www.lightrailnow.org/features/f_lrt_2005_02.htm
http://www.energybulletin.net/14492.html
7. Some solar projects have high upfront cost.
“Concentrating solar power”
“the initial capital expenditure for the collectors is equivalent to
buying a lifetime supply of fuel.”
http://www.energylan.sandia.gov/sunlab/PDFs/bigsolutions.pdf
http://tech.groups.yahoo.com/group/energyresources/message/101225
8. The cost of asphalt doubled in last 2 years.
“Asphalt prices pave way for higher costs” By Steven Oberbeck ,
The Salt Lake Tribune , 05/19/2007
http://www.sltrib.com/ci_5937346
http://www.energybulletin.net/29934.html
9. Roads need too much energy for paving, upkeep, grading, winter plowing, salting,
sanding, and moving heavy cargo. Shortage of fuel will end all of this.
10. The energy in “US oil usage only” equals 1,500,000 megawatts = average
energy output of about 6 million “one megawatt wind turbines”. (See end of
article “1,500 one-gigawatt”)
http://aspocanada.ca/get_ready_for_oil_supplies_to_dwindle_experts_warn.html
Large numbers of people living in the countryside, could use
smaller size windmills to provide power for their own needs.
11. “infrastructure” includes Sea energy, Geo-thermal, and other renewable
energy forms. They all need a lot of energy for their construction.
12. Grid loss is happening NOW. Read the section : “3. Impact on
developing countries”
http://www.aspo_usa.com/index.phpoption=com_content&task=view&id=137&Itemid=9
http://www.energybulletin.net/30257.html
13. Charts showing the prices of nickel and copper for the last several years.
http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/nickel_historical.html
http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/copper_historical.html
http://www.infomine.com/investment/historicalcharts/showcharts.asp?c=Copper
Because of rising cost of construction, even "fossil fuels" projects are being
delayed or ended now.
http://tech.groups.yahoo.com/group/energyresources/message/101148
“Algeria may drop GTL plant, delay energy projects on costs”
Published: Monday, 9 April, 2007
http://www.gulf_times.com/site/topics/article.asp?
cu_no=2&item_no=142720&version=1&template_id=48&parent_id=28
Higher cost to complete projects "http://www.energybulletin.net/32505.html"
http://www.energybulletin.net/32505.html
14. Is there really any difference to you, between a resource that has become too
depleted , to a resource that has become so expensive that it is by far out of
your price range of afford-ability ?
15 theft of telecommunications wire happening now.
http://www.energybulletin.net/32496.html
http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/magazines/Business/html/20070724T000000-0500_125580_OBS_CABLE_THEFT_COST_C_WJ____M_LAST_YEAR_.asp
http://www.insidebayarea.com/trivalleyherald/ci_6394179
http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2007/07/12/ap3907240.html
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/07/24/AR2007072401991.html
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16. As an added benefit, you will be doing your part in solving the problem of “Global warming” .
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