Baloney Detection kit
- Independent confirmation if possible
- Encourage debate by knowledgeable proponents
- Distrust "argument from authority"
- Spin more than one hypothesis, and try and discover what tests can distinguish them
- Quantify, if possible
- Remember every link in the chain must work, including the premise
- Use Occams razor, choose simplest hypothesis if two fit the data the same
- Check if hypothesis can be falsified
Common fallacies
- Ad Hominem (Latin for 'to the man') attacking arguer not argument
- Argument from authority
- Argument from adverse consequences
- Appeal to ignorance, lack of evidence is not evidence of lack.
- Special pleading.
- Begging the question, or assuming the answer
- Observational selection, or forgetting the misses
- Statistics of small numbers
- Misundestanding nature of statistics
- Inconsistency
- Non-sequiter (Latin for 'it doesn't follow)
- Post hoc ergo propetor hoc (Latin for 'It happened after therefore it was caused by')
- Meaningless question
- Excluded middle, or false dichotomy
- Short term Versus long term
- Slippery slope
- Confusion of correlation and causation
- Strawman
- Supressed evidence
- Weasel words or euphemisms
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