06/23/1999
Strange happenings in baseball this year, well so far anyway. Who would have
ever thought Greg Maddux would be 6-5 with a 4.18 ERA, and be leading the
league in hits given up? Or that Tom Glavine would be 5-7 with a 4.76 ERA
after 15 starts?
Not strange enough for you, how about a Tony with a shot to hit .400 this
year, but it isn't Tony Gwynn, it's Tony Fernandez? Or that Rey Ordonez,
the Mets so called good field (thats a topic for another time), no-hit shortstop
hitting .303 so far this year?
So what exactly is the cause of these strange statistics? The two main theories
are that the new smaller strike zone or expansion are the culprits. I am
not so sure, these may be part of the problem but they hardly explain this
strange variation in statistics. If it did there would be 15 guys going for
.400. McGwire's homerun record would be more seriously challenged.
The problems with these theories go deeper than that though, Pedro Martinez
has a good shot at 30 wins this year, something that hasn't happened since
Denny McClain did it in 1968, and has a shot at the single season strikeout
record.
So while I am sure there is a slight dilution of talent because of expansion,
it is only temorary, much like the previous rounds of expansion. The level
of talent decreases for a few years as the players that are promoted from
the minor leagues prematurely develop. The talent pool for baseball today
is greater than it has been at any point in the past with the international
expansion of the game.
I am sure the strikezone has had an effect on pitchers, but surely not enough
to raise the average ERA for American League Starters from 4.77 in 1998 (an
expansion year no less) to 5.21 so far in 1999.
There are hundreds if not thousands of other little theories about the sudden
offensive explosion in baseball, but there is neither time nor space to shoot
them all down. Needless to say there may be some truth to some of the theories,
but for the most part the strange happenings so far this year are best explained
as coincidences, and in the case of Ordonez probably flukes. But then that
is baseball for you, it has always been a game that was impossible to predict,
otherwise I would be making a killing in Vegas.
Mopping Up
Manager Bobby Cox was ejected by plate umpire Jeff Kellogg in the first inning
of Tom Glavine's last start for arguing a ball call. Dugout coach Pat Corrales,
who took over for Cox, was ejected in the seventh for arguing a check swing.
Maybe the Braves do have a bit of emotion, and aren't all business.
Jeff Zimmerman has put up some impressive numbers out of the Texas Bullpen
this year. He leads the American League with a 1.00 ERA and has a record
of 7-0. Not bad for a guy that didn't get drafted and worked his way up through
the Independent Leagues. Between Zimmerman this year and Ligtenberg last
year it puts the effectiveness of a lot of scouts into question.
Odalis Perez was called for a balk on an appeal throw to first. While
I am sure that isn't a first, how often could something like that really
happen?
Tim Wakefield as a closer? Ummm isn't the closer supposed to throw strikes?
If a knuckleballer can close games, it just goes to show that all those guys
like Randy Myers and Lee Smith among others, maybe aren't such hot stuff.
It lends credence to all the naysayers of the save stat out there. The save
should go to the pitcher who is on the mound when the game is on the line,
not to the "mop-up" guy who pitches the last inning of the game.
Ok so now Hack Wilson drove in 191 runs instead of 190 in a single season,
whats the big deal? Well at the start of the week Manny Ramirez was on pace
for exactly 191 RBI which would have been a new record, it just puts that
record a little further out of reach. Of more consequence I should think
would be the career base on balls record held by Babe Ruth. It was increased
by 6 BB to 2,062. Ted Williams is second 43 walks back, and Rickey Henderson
is currently 3rd 134 back. He has a decent shot at this record if he continues
to draw walks at the same clip he has the last few years, but 6 more walks
makes it that much tougher and he isn't exactly a spring chicken anymore.
-- O-fer
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© 1999 K. Hollingshead
1999 |
