WNBL 2001

D Day Edges Closer for WNBA Bound Aussies

By Joel Shepherd

Trying to predict where Australians will get picked in the WNBA draft can be a real lottery. Not to put too fine a point on it, American scouting of foreign players, and Australian players in particular, has been historically awful. In 1998, for instance, Sandy Brondello was selected 34th by the Detroit Shock... something that even a casual observer of the WNBL ought to know was ludicrous given that the Utah Starzz's 31st pick went to Tricia Bader, who had made only a middling impact in the Tassie Islanders the previous year, while Brondello is not only a WNBL legend, but a European League legend also. Predictably, Bader sunk without a trace, and Brondello went on to become one of the best shooting guards in the WNBA -- for Detroit, at the time, a case of 'fortuitous stupidity' that extended Nancy Leiberman-Cline's short coaching career somewhat longer than it otherwise would have lasted.

And let's not forget how Michelle Brogan, Carla Boyd and Kristi Harrower were all ignored by the League until Phoenix and Detroit snapped them up as free-agent steals. Of course, Annie Burgess and Trisha Fallon didn't have so happy a time after being drafted by Minnesota, but then it's tough to play well when the coach won't put you on the court -- something Fallon particularly appeared to find baffling. And so the question of relevance to all Australian WNBA-watchers is this -- have the Americans yet learned the perils of ignoring Australian players? 

Well, now there is the hype about Lauren Jackson. Americans love hype -- one supposes they invented the term, 'hype' short for 'hyperbole', of which there has been no shortage regarding the 6-5 wunderkind from 'Down Under' splashed across various American newspaper and internet sites over the past year or two. It's tough to imagine Jackson won't be picked first by coach Linn Dunn of the Seattle Storm, despite Dunn's wily attempts to obfuscate the issue by hinting at other possible selections and/or trades for established veterans. Dunn needs a post. Dunn has stated she wants a young player to build her team's future around. Dunn's team management has no doubt voiced their opinion of what a spectacular, charismatic superstar like Jackson could do for getting bums on seats for their fledgling franchise, particularly in the WNBA's tough Western Conference, where wins are hard to come by. In fact, given the potential ramifications for her career if she passes up on Jackson, and Jackson then goes on to become her generation's most dominant player as many suspect, you could even say that Linn Dunn would be stupid not to pick, and keep, Lauren Jackson with her first pick in this year's draft. I met Linn Dunn at the Sydney Olympics. She doesn't give the impression of being the least bit stupid. 

So that's Jackson. How about WNBL MVP Penny Taylor? Or Kristen Veal? Or the two other Australians registered for the draft -- Jae Kingi and Jo Hill? 

A few years ago, Kristen Veal might have struggled to get drafted at all, American awareness of Australian players being that low. This year, it'll be amazing if she even falls so far as the tail-end of the first round -- the WNBA is suffering a derth of point guards at present, and given that everyone's now seen tape of Lauren Jackson playing for either Canberra or the AIS, everyone has now also seen her point guard on both those teams -- Kristen Veal. That Phoenix tried to sneak her past the draft by free-agency last year, only to have their move swatted by the WNBA under pressure from other clubs who wanted an equal shot at her in the draft, suggests that all who viewed those tapes were suitably impressed by what they saw. As many Australian detractors have pointed out, Veal's defence needs work, her output is patchy from game to game, she's yet inexperienced for a WNBA level point guard, and plays accordingly. 

But even from an American perspective, she's tall for a PG, she's athletic, she can shoot, pass, handle, already has experience against WNBA-calibre PGs in the WNBL, and will only get better with age. And more to the point, there's simply no other emerging point guard anywhere in the world right now who has all that. Expansion teams might be reluctant to pick her, needing results immediately and not being prepared to wait for Veal to develop into a WNBA-calibre player... but beyond that, at least half of the existing 16 WNBA teams would like a new starting point guard, and given that every American I talked to in Sydney knew who she was and what she'd done (two consecutive Grand Final MVPs), you'd have to think Veal will be at or near the top of their list. And the longer she stays unpicked on the list, the more she'll get into the territory of well-stocked teams who can comfortably afford to wait a few years for her to develop to their required standards, if need be. 

Penny Taylor: Where the big T gets picked this draft is anyone's guess. She OUGHT to be picked top five at the very least. It could turn out that anything other than second, behind Jackson, would be robbery. But for WNBA coaches and managers, Taylor remains something of an unknown quantity -- she didn't make the team to Sydney, which doesn't look good in their books, and she's a small forward, a position absolutely flooded with superb, tall, athletic talent in America. Jackson can be guaranteed to perform in the WNBA because a) she's done it against Team USA, and b) the WNBA isn't so deep at centre. The last part applies even more to Veal at point guard -- there isn't enough depth at PG in the WNBA right now for someone as good as Veal to get intimidated by. But Taylor at small forward will have to contend with names like Swoopes, Holdsclaw, Reed, Smith, McCray and many more besides, and there just aren't very many WNBA teams desperate for small forwards right now. Worse yet, the two leading college contenders in the draft (both injured but still expected to get picked early) are both small forwards -- Svetlana Abrosimova and Tamika Catchings -- leading to something of an oversupply of talent at the 3 spot. 

Ultimately, Taylor's fate in this draft will depend upon whether individual coaches and scouts saw her at the WNBA combine recently held in Chicago, and whether she impressed them. At her best, it's hard to imagine she wouldn't, and having won MVP in the WNBL this year ahead of Lauren Jackson, and at the age of 19, will surely attract much attention in itself. But a team in immediate need for someone other than a small forward will most probably still look elsewhere, rather than have a coach risk his/her reputation on a relatively unknown Australian. Despite which, I still find it hard to imagine Taylor won't go in the first round. One thing I DO know is that they'll regret it if she doesn't. 

Jae Kingi: Another unknown Australian, but a very decent chance of a high pick because of the point guard shortage. Once again, Kingi's draft fate depends upon how many people she impressed at the Chicago-combine, since most Americans won't have a clue who she is. In her immediate favour are height (5-9), experience, and being a point guard, the mere fact of which will immediately draw a crowd of attention. To her detriment is that she hasn't been a regular Opals team member, Americans will wonder why, and assume that even allowing for knee-injuries, it must have been a question of talent keeping her out of the Opals too -- not always a wise assumption given Opals selection-trends in the past. Also working against her is that perhaps her greatest strength won't be evident at a mere training-camp -- the ability to play a long, tough 40 minute pressure-match with few mistakes and few deviations in form. Even so, if she impresses just one particular coach, who happens to be in serious need of a point guard, then we could be looking at the unlikely prospect of four Australians getting picked in the first round of the deepest draft in WNBA history. If she doesn't impress that one coach sufficiently, she'll still almost certainly go in the second round, possibly to Tom Maher's Washington Mystics. 

Jo Hill: Renee Brown, Director of Player Personnel for the WNBA, told me in Sydney that she 'definitely wanted Jo Hill in the WNBA'. She wanted 'excitement players', she said, and Jo Hill is definitely that. Whether WNBA clubs will share this enthusiasm remains to be seen -- Hill is an unknown to them, and despite recent excellent stats from Europe, coaches and scouts will question why she's never done much in the Opals, and why it's taken her until nearly age 28 before getting nominated for the WNBA draft. Hill was also missing from the Chicago-combine, which deprived team staff the chance to see her play in person, a vital part of the selection process for many coaching staff. Relying on them to pick her from tape-games alone is a shaky prospect -- Sandy Brondello did that and look where she got picked. In a deep draft like this one, for a league stacked with tall, athletic wing scorers, don't be surprised if Hill slips a long way indeed in this draft. 

But ultimately for Jo Hill, it shouldn't really matter where she gets picked. Like Penny Taylor, she'll have to beat out some very talented, athletic wings to get minutes regardless of what team ends up taking her, and that situation will be the same whether she's picked 5th or 50th, or even as a free-agent. Once in a team, she'll get her chance to fight for a place. If she succeeds, like Sandy Brondello, then how far she progresses will be entirely up to her, and the only thing a low pick in the draft will hurt is her bank balance.