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Can Britney last?
Belly-button queen tries to make transition from teen idol to lasting star

Britney Spears is on top of the world. For now.

She just had an HBO special Sunday. Her high-profile tour is crossing the United States, landing at the Palace of Auburn Hills Monday night. And her third album, Britney, debuted at No. 1 last week, making her the first female in history to have her first three albums debut at the top of the Billboard 200 chart.

But the pop music graveyard is filled with the remains of teen idols and overnight sensations who climbed to the top and then fell quickly out of favor. True, Britney sold more than 745,000 copies its first week. But Spears' previous album, Oops... I Did It Again, sold more than 1.3 million copies its first seven days. That's a serious drop-off.

Spears has been the undeniable queen of teen pop since she emerged in 1998. But her initial fans are growing up, and she has to expand her audience to thrive. The question is: Can Britney Spears survive having been Britney Spears?

"Britney Spears is still only 19," says Gary Hoppenstand, president of the national Pop Culture Association and a professor at Michigan State University. "Let's see if she can last the next 10 years."

It can be done, of course. Elvis Presley, the Beatles, Michael and Janet Jackson, Madonna and Cher all started out as potential one-hit wonders.

But many more acts have had audiences screaming and then found complete silence. Anybody remember Leif Garrett? The Bay City Rollers? Tiffany? Paula Abdul? Who can name the members of New Kids on the Block? Or even the Spice Girls? The list goes on and on.

There are key elements shared by all those who've made the transition from overnight success to lifelong career. An artist has to evolve, has to take charge of their own affairs and has to diversify and expand beyond their original audience. And even though she's still on top -- Britney was the year's second biggest debut, next to *NSYNC's Celebrity -- it's obvious Spears is trying to emulate what has worked before.

For one thing, she has abandoned the naughty-but-really-wholesome schtick that launched her career and become a full-on temptress. At the recent MTV Video Awards show, she performed wearing perhaps the shortest pair of shorts ever made, a skimpy top and a live, writhing white python. In interviews these days, the subject of her once-touted virginity is off-limits. The songs on Britney -- "I'm Not a Girl, Not Yet a Woman," "I'm a Slave 4 U" -- are both more sexual and adult in nature. She is evolving, or at least trying.

"The thing that all (successes) have in common is they were able to break out of the teen idol designation. All of them expanded their audience," Hoppenstand says. "With Britney Spears, I think she's now turned herself into a kind of sex symbol that has a larger appeal."

She's been trying to widen her audience for most of this year. She jumped onstage with Aerosmith for the Super Bowl halftime show last year and has been featured in a dance-crazy Pepsi commercial shown on TV and in movie theaters since it debuted at that same Super Bowl. Since then, not just kids have been exposed to Britney.

"One of the smartest things she did was the Pepsi commercial. It opened her up beyond the teen audience, with men, with the older folk," Hoppenstand says.

But in courting a new audience, she may be leaving old fans behind.

"I think she's gone a little over the edge lately with what she's wearing and her songs," says Ryan VanderMeulen, 13, of Saline. "I think she started out pretty good, but she's gotten older, and she's showing a lot more skin now."

Another key factor for those who've expanded their careers is they've helped shape their own destiny. On Britney, Spears has five co-writing credits on songs and seems to be trying to take some control. But there is still skepticism.

"People still perceive her as packaged, no one takes her seriously," says Sarah Packard, 23, a student at Eastern Michigan University. "With Britney, you can't tell how much is her and how much is her marketing.

"Until she starts writing all of her songs and taking more control of her artistic output, I don't think she's really going to be able to establish herself."

The smartest pop artists also have grown beyond music. Cher started out with Sonny as bubblegum wonders, then moved on to Vegas, then showed up on television. After the duo broke up, Cher established herself as an actress, won an Oscar, came back to music as a bombast queen and then dance music diva. Britney is making her first move out of music with the film Crossroads, due out in February.

In the end, though, there are two other factors that spell success or doom -- good business sense and, oh yes, talent.

"Talent alone is not enough to do it, business savvy alone isn't enough," Hoppenstand says.

Whether Spears has the right mix remains to be seen. There are those who've turned against her.

"I think she'll just wear out and people will get tired of her," says 13-year-old VanderMeulen -- so her future depends on capturing new fans.

And that's not easy. Just ask Shaun Cassidy.