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Cardiff and its Valleys: The Political Implications of Economic Restructuring and Crisis

[1985; south Wales Socialist League internal discussion document]

Recent Political History

The outstanding feature of Welsh political life over the last 20 years has been the steady decay in support for Labour and the parallel rise of Plaid Cymru. The roots of this decay lie in the inability of Welsh Labourism to provide answers to the problems posed for Wales by the emerging crisis of international capitalism from the late 1960s. This failure was symbolised by the response of the l964-70 Wilson government of closing down large sections of the Welsh coal industry and rail network.

Although Labour has lost support throughout Wales, the extent of this loss and its electoral consequences has not been even. A political map of Wales shows a steady retreat of Parliamentary seats to Labour's heartland in the Valleys. By 1983, the Tories controlled a third of Welsh seats in Parliament. The Alliance has made fewer gains in Wales than in England but can still command twice the votes of Plaid Cymru in most areas of Wales and its gains were a crucial factor in many of the 1983 Tory victories.

Cardiff's political stance has always been to the right of the South Wales valleys. This reflects the presence within the city of a sizeable 'middle class'. This is unlikely to change. Of more interest are the recent shifts in political opinion within Cardiff and the causes of these.

From the late 1970s to the 1983 general election, Cardiff showed a marked shift to the right with consequences far beyond those in most other areas of South Wales. By 1983, Cardiff had three out of four Tory MPs and Tory control of the City Council. However, since 1984, this process has been dramatically reversed with noticeable victories for Labour in both the 1984 South Wales Euro-constituency election and the 1985 South Glamorgan council election.

Election results are of course only a reflection of deep-rooted economic, social and political developments. The question is what are these developments in Cardiff that have led to these significant electoral swings. Is Cardiff's future political evolution likely to be part of a more general movement within South Wales or is it more probable that it will go its own way? The answer to this clearly has implications for the Cardiff and Welsh labour movement.

The Restructuring of the Cardiff Economy

Since the mid-1970s, the Welsh economy has been in fundamental crisis. The roots of this lie in the global crisis of capitalism and the international shift in low and medium productivity manufacturing industry towards the semi-industrialised countries with their super-exploitable labour forces.

Cardiff has always played the role of a support centre to the Southeast Wales economy. Traditionally, this has centred on its transport and communications functions. Its potential as a control centre for the Welsh economy has long been frustrated by the fact of domination of the Welsh economy by external capital and the resulting inhibited growth of its administrative role. Historically, Cardiff has also had a significant manufacturing sector, particularly around steel.

From the 1970s, this began to change. The manufacturing base of Cardiff - like that throughout South Wales - began to collapse, symbolised by the closure of East Moors steelworks. Where Cardiff differed from the rest of South Wales was that there was not simply a process of industrial decay but also of economic restructuring. Offices sprang up as the factories closed and these replaced many of the lost jobs.

This restructuring was partly a result of conscious government action and partly the response of private capital to improved transport and communications facilities, both internally within South Wales (private cars largely replacing the rail network) and more importantly externally via the 125 [train] and Severn Bridge to London. It became feasible for private capital to develop Cardiff as a local control centre, centralise retailing and certain other services and relocating some central functions from London to take advantage of lower office costs.

Cardiff also saw a major growth in employment in government administration. This was partly a response to nationalist pressure and partly also a reflection of the general growth in administration throughout the imperialist world. But it also had roots in features specific to the Welsh economy, the growing complexity of which with the movement from traditional coal and steel to a more broadly-based manufacturing demanded greater attention from the state. This was particularly true given the importance of state assistance for these new industries. Special mention must be made of foreign capital, which by the 1970s accounted for a third of manufacturing investment in Wales and whose needs could not be adequately serviced from London.

By the late 70s, Cardiff's economy was moving in a direction distinct from that of the surrounding areas. It appeared largely immune from the crisis afflicting the Valleys and increasingly based on new forms of employment. Not surprisingly, these material and economic differences showed themselves in distinct political trends. Cardiff moved away from Labour more rapidly than the rest of South Wales and the Tories consolidated a significant political base.

Cardiff and the Crisis

However, this 'new prosperity' was an illusion. Firstly, the vast majority of the new jobs proved no less working-class than those they had replaced. They offered little in terms of status and salaries were often below the wages normal in large manufacturing plants. Secondly, Cardiff's changing role depended not on independence from the Welsh economy but on a new geographical division of labour within it. Cardiff was developing as an essentially local centre, providing administration for the whole of Wales and services for the South-east, particularly the valleys running down to Cardiff.

The result of this is that it has proved impossible for Cardiff to continue the pace of restructuring in the face of the collapse of the Welsh economy and Thatcherite economics. Public services have been cut back. The redevelopment of Cardiff city centre is limited by the restricted consumption resulting from mass unemployment. The decline of Welsh industry and the virtual ending of inward foreign investment has removed the need for rapid administrative growth.

In addition, there is the accelerating urban crisis within the inner-city areas of Cardiff. This factor - of vital importance in the radicalisation of many English metropolitan Labour parties - has been delayed in Cardiff by the relative newness of the city and the 1970s restructuring. But it is now coming to the fore, particularly around housing, which will be a key issue in local council politics.

The political effect of these limitations to the restructuring of the Cardiff economy has been the major swing back to Labour seen in the 1984 and 1985 elections. This swing took place in the context of the miners' strike, a struggle which brought home the reality of the unity and inter-dependence of the South Wales economy.

Political Implications

Cardiff will remain distinct both politically and economically within South Wales. Some of the differences may even become more pronounced. But Cardiff wi1l prove unable to escape the reality of the crisis of capitalism in Wales and this will provide a basis for reasserting the unity of the Welsh labour movement. In certain areas - notably around local government - Cardiff may well be in the lead.

A strategy for the Cardiff labour movement will have to take account of its particular characteristics. Today in Britain, only a quarter of employed workers are in manufacturing industry. In Cardiff, it is less than half that and many of those are in small poorly-organised factories. An essential task for the movement in Cardiff is achieving the active unity of its traditional heart in transport/communications and the major manufacturing plants with the newer sectors in services and administration.

In particular struggles in and around public services are likely to have importance. NUPE [the principal public sector union] will be a decisive union. Here, we should note the special role that will be played be women in the services (or administration). In these sectors of the economy, the work hierarchy is also a sexual hierarchy and the majority of those facing the worst conditions and wages are women. Overcoming the various historical divisions within our class will be crucial.

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