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SALWEEN WATCH HOTMAIL OUT Salween Watch Update February 2003, Volume 13 XXxx<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<o0XxxX0o>>>>>>>>>>>>>>xxXX Larry Jagan, Bangkok Post: January 29, 2003 Talks with the liberal opposition look to be going nowhere, and this is sure to hurt relations with the West. So Rangoon is now fostering closer friendships with those not so concerned with such issues. Burma's foreign minister has made an historic visit to India, which diplomats in Rangoon are attributing to the military rulers' renewed diplomatic offensive intended to disguise the failure of their secret talks with opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi. The Jan 19-24 visit by Win Aung was the first by a senior Burmese leader to India for more than 15 years. While in New Delhi, he met Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee and held talks with several key cabinet ministers, including his counterpart Jaswant Sinha. Trade and investment were high on the agenda, but diplomats in Rangoon believe that what the visit really signified was the near collapse of talks with Ms Suu Kyi. "The Burmese government is preparing to withstand tougher economic sanctions from the West by strengthening economic ties with its Asian neighbours,'' said a senior Western diplomat who declined to be identified. For Win Aung though, this trip to India was most significant. Although there were few concrete results to boast about, the two foreign ministers signed a protocol, which establishes regular bilateral ministerial consultations. The two countries also agreed to strengthen cooperation on several bilateral projects, mainly in the fields of infrastructure, energy and information technology. The two governments plan to set up a joint Business Council to help encourage greater private Indian investment in Burma. India is also considering offering Burma a considerable new commercial credit line to help Indian businessmen. The government already has a guaranteed credit line of $25 million, and government officials say this is now likely to be doubled. "There are many Indian businesses with factories in Southeast Asia who are interested in establishing pilot projects in Burma, but so far they have been deterred by the political situation there,'' said one Indian businessman who is involved in the import and export industry. "This is likely to increase now that there is a modicum of official support for companies interested in Burma.'' One of Win Aung's main aims on this trip to India was to drum up trade and investment. "We are opening our doors to trade and investment,'' he told a conference of Indian businessmen in Delhi. ``Burma's strategic position, at the crossroads of South Asia and East Asia, meant that investors stood to reap substantial benefits from investing in Burma.'' Win Aung proposed a regional summit next year of countries involved in the regional grouping BIMST-EC, the Bangladesh, India, Myanmar (Burma), Sri Lanka and Thailand Economic Cooperation forum, to further boost regional cooperation. He said that while this forum, set up more than five years ago, had opened up avenues for bilateral and multilateral cooperation in trade and economic development, more needed to be done. "What we need is a vision for the future so that we can work together
and make the whole region prosperous,'' Win Aung told the members of the
Confederation of Indian Industries. But more than anything else, Rangoon is anxious to see more Indian investment in its energy sector. There is substantial Indian interest in infrastructure projects, including the completion of a major highway connecting India's northeast with Thailand, through Mandalay and Rangoon. It is also building a port, Sittwe, on the Burmese coast to help increase maritime trade. India's leading state-run energy companies Oil and Gas Cooperation and the Gas Authority of India Ltd are involved in exploration works off Burma's west coast and are also interested in onshore exploration rights. India is also keen to access Bangladesh's huge gas reserves, but for years Dhaka has been no more than lukewarm to the proposal. Tapping into the Burmese gas fields would certainly be an incentive for India to strengthen its bilateral economic ties with Rangoon. The Burmese foreign minister should see trade with India grow in coming year as result of this trip. In an effort to boost economic ties between the two countries, India's businessmen plan to send a delegation from their northeast to Burma to explore further cooperation. A trade and industry fair, the Made in India Show, is planned for Rangoon later this year. But the formal results aren't as important as the strategic partnership that was clearly forged during the trip. Win Aung was greeted as a friend and given enormous attention by his hosts. He, in turn, made it clear wherever he went that Burma saw India as a major potential ally. "We regard India not only as an important neighbour but as a country with which we are linked culturally and historically,'' he said. "In some ways, India is our motherland.'' For India, this is a welcome approach to their bilateral relations. New Delhi has been anxious to improve its strategic and economic ties with Burma for some time as part of its strategy to contain China's increasing influence in Southeast Asia as a whole, and Burma in particular. Many Indian diplomats admit privately that this is one of the main strategic objectives behind the Indian government's Look East foreign policy. It is no coincidence either that Win Aung's visit to India came shortly after Burma's top leader, General Than Shwe, visited China. Burma is anxious not to be too reliant on any one ally. "Rangoon now sees good ties with Delhi as a way to balance their dependence on Beijing for trade, soft loans a nd military hardware,'' said a senior Asian diplomat. There is no doubt that Rangoon is conducting a concerted campaign to improve relations with all its neighbours. Gen Than Shwe has visited both China and Bangladesh in the past two months, Win Aung has now been to India, and Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra will visit Rangoon in February. Diplomats in Rangoon believe this diplomatic offensive reflects the fact that the talks with opposition leader Suu Kyi have stalled. "There is no dialogue between Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and the SPDC [State Peace and Development Council, as Burma's ruling body is called]. The process has completely stalled,'' National League for Democracy spokesman U Lwin said this week. In light of this, the United States and Europe are considering adopting tougher economic sanctions later this year if there is still no significant political progress after United Nations envoy Razali Ismail's next visit to Burma, currently expected to take place in March. "With the international community preoccupied with the potential conflict in Iraq, the Burmese junta think the pressure to reform is off them for the present,'' said a senior US diplomat. "It looks like they are just going to stiff it out.'' That appears to be the real reason behind Burma's diplomatic offensive. Burma's intelligence chief, Lieutenant-General Khin Nyunt, has often told the United Nations envoy and other Asian leaders that Burma did not fear a full-scale boycott by the West as it would get all the aid, trade and investment it needed from its neighbours.
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