For a webpage on how to do research, click here .

For a webpage on how to study statistics, click here .

If you are interested in elementary Bayesian methods, click here .

For my research papers from 1993 onwards, click here .

These books should be ordered from Rumsby Scientific Publishing, P.O. Box Q355, Q.V.B., Sydney, N.S.W. 1230, Australia. We welcome payment with order --- a cheque in any major convertible currency is acceptable. (But we will happily bill you later, if you prefer.) Please add 15% to the quoted price if delivery by airmail is required.

For an order form, click here

For a letter recommending the books to your librarian, click here

"Essentials of Statistical Methods, in 41 Pages" ....Click here (This is our most popular book, suitable for all introductory statistics courses.)

"Bilingual (English/Chinese) Edition of Essentials of Statistical Methods" ....Click here

"Version 2 (History and Archaeology) of Essentials of Statistical Methods" ....Click here

"Version 3 (Psychology and Education) of Essentials of Statistical Methods" ....Click here

"Version 4 (Health and Sickness) of Essentials of Statistical Methods" ....Click here

"The Proofs for a First Course in Statistics" ....Click here

"Bilingual Edition (English and Chinese) of The Proofs for a First Course in Statistics" ....Click here

"The Common Sense for a First Course in Statistics" ....Click here

"Controversies in Item Response Theory" ....Click here

For these monographs, click here

"Road Accident Statistics"

"Continuous Bivariate Distributions, Emphasising Applications"

"The Datasets from CBDEA"

"The Engineering Statistician's Guide to Continuous Bivariate Distributions"

"Ability, Partial Information, Guessing: Statistical Modelling Applied to Multiple-Choice Tests"

"Index to Corrections, Addenda, and Comments That Were Published in Statistics Journals, 1970--1991"

"Corrections, Addenda, and Comments Published in Journals of Statistics and Mathematics Applied to Psychology and Education, 1970--1991: An Index"

There are many excellent introductory textbooks of statistics available. But often they are 500, 700, even 1000 pages long. This has real disadvantages: they are heavy, expensive, and wordy. But here is a volume light enough to be carried around, and cheap enough for every student to afford.

A typical introductory statistics course gets as far as some techniques of inference --- the testing of hypotheses and the construction of confidence intervals. That is the subject of Part III of this book. In preparation for this, the student needs to know about data description and about probability. These are covered in Parts I and II.

• "An excellent introduction... Fills a gap because it is short, cheap, and can easily be understood... I can fully recommend the text." (D Rasch, writing in Biometrical Journal, 35, 1993, p 916.)
• "Throughout, there are lots of pictures and simple calculations... Students will love it, but, hopefully, they will heed the author's warnings that this booklet is no substitute for a course of clearly presented lectures." (M B Zarrop, writing in International Journal of Electrical Engineering Education, 31, 1994, p 87.)
• "If you want to bone up on your standard undergraduate statistics quickly, omitting nothing, this compact book is for you... This book is clear, scholarly, and complete." (M Machover, writing in Mathematics Teacher, 86, 1993, p 692.)
• "A very practical summary... Full of examples and practical advices... Remarkably complete... Many hints are given for tackling typical test problems and examination questions. All explanations are straightforward and simple." (D Van Oudheusden, writing in European Journal of Operational Research, 71, 1993, pp 141-142.)
• "It could be very useful for revision in preparation for an examination... Covers a comprehensive syllabus... Factually reliable." (F Jolliffe, writing in RSS (Royal Statistical Society) News, 20(3), 1993, p 9.)
• "The idea is an excellent one, likely to be welcomed by students, and the presentation is clear and readable." (D J Street, writing in Australian Journal of Statistics, 35, 1993, p 127.)
• "Covers the content of a standard introductory course at first year university level... The format enables a lot of information to be included on a page... Clearly good as a handy reference for formulae and way of recalling to mind the contents of the statistics course the reader too some years ago." (C Wild, writing in Newsletter of the New Zealand Mathematical Society, No 57, 1993, p 22.)

Published January 1993. A4 format. Paperback booklet of ii + 41 pages. Price: $10 (Australian currency), $8 (U.S. currency), 4 pounds sterling, $9 (Canadian currency), or the equivalent in any major convertible currency. Please order from: Rumsby Scientific Publishing, P.O. Box Q355, Q.V.B., Sydney, N.S.W. 2000, Australia.

Many students take introductory statistics courses. The first language of some of these students is Chinese. For their benefit, this bilingual version of Dr Hutchinson's textbook has been prepared. The English text and Chinese translation are printed side by side.

• "A charming little book... The Chinese translation is both accurate and colloquial, and the book will be of value to any Chinese-speaking student studying abroad." (D Robinson and Bao Lie Robinson, writing in The Statistician, 45, 1996, pp 132-133.)
• "I am confident that many students whose first language is Chinese will indeed find this bilingual version helpful." (C D Lai, writing in The New Zealand Statistician, 29(2), 1994, pp 82-83.)
• "The translator is to be commended for a fluent and mostly accurate translation that is faithful to the original." (A Y C Kuk, writing in Australian Journal of Statistics, 37, 1995, pp 127-128.)

Published September 1994. A4 format. Paperback. ii + 99 pages. Price: $24 (Australian currency), $18 (U.S. currency), 10 pounds sterling, $23 (Canadian currency), or the equivalent in any major convertible currency. Please order from: Rumsby Scientific Publishing, P.O. Box Q355, Q.V.B., Sydney, N.S.W. 2000, Australia.

In this Version, many of the examples are taken from the fields of history and archaeology. For instance: in Part I, the percentages of lead in Bronze Age sickles, and the price of rice in 18th-century China; in Part II, the probability of throwing "Venus" with four astragali, and the occurrence of wars viewed as a Poisson process; in Part III, the sizes of shells in a possible Aboriginal midden, and drought causing the fall of Tiwanaku.

• "This small volume provides one of the best short reviews available for those who use statistics historically." (Urban History Review, 24, 1995, p 70.)
• "A most useful little volume for both students and staff." (R Middleton, writing in Journal of Educational Administration and History, 27, 1995, pp 73-74.)
• "A concise, clearly written and easy to follow explanation of the introductory concepts... The author has succeeded in his aim of providing a very useful 'memory-jogger'." (L Power, writing in The Great Circle, 17, 1995, p 60.)
• "This handy A5 volume provides an excellent coverage of basic concepts... Pithy, attractively written text... Sensible selection of lucid diagrams and illustrative tables... Overall, the booklet gathers together an impressive number of hints and devices useful not only to the beginner, but also to the experienced if non-specialist number cruncher." (D Bulbeck, writing in Anthropological Forum, 7, 1994, pp 143-145.)
• "Written concisely and clearly... It should prove a useful textbook for an introductory course." (G J Tee, writing in Prudentia, 26(2), 1994, pp 63-65.)
• "Easily understandable and relatively user-friendly. There is a lightness about the approach that matches that of the bulk... It certainly has a place on the shelf - and in the larger pockets - of those like me who need reminding of the basic methods." (J Parkington, writing in South African Archaeological Bulletin, 49, 1994, p 109.)

Published September 1993. A5 format. Paperback. xii + 152 pages. Price: $17 (Australian currency), $12 (U.S. currency), 7 pounds sterling, $15 (Canadian currency), or the equivalent in any major convertible currency. Please order from: Rumsby Scientific Publishing, P.O. Box Q355, Q.V.B., Sydney, N.S.W. 2000, Australia.

In this Version, many of the examples are taken from psychology and education. For instance: in Part I, hours per week of student effort, and risk-taking by children; in Part II, screening for psychosocial problems using a fallible questionnaire, and misbehaviour viewed as a Poisson process; in Part III, behaviour in deceptive and honest interviews, and explanations of methods of solving a mathematics problem.

• "An ideal book to revise and consolidate learning... Clear, succinct and scholarly coverage of the subject matter." (R MacCann, writing in Independence: Journal of the Association of Heads of the Independent Schools of Australia, 21, 1996, pp 54-55.)
• "Positive features include the use of recent psychological research to illustrate statistical tests, the clear conversational style of the author, and the regular explanations of mistakes commonly made by students." (M Turner, writing in AUCL Bulletin (Association of University and College Lecturers), Summer 1996.)
• "Would I recommend this as a suitable textbook for its target audience? Certainly the price is right (with further discounts for bulk buying) and I am very sympathetic to the hands-on and commonsense approach of most of the material. I would definitely have like some chi-squareds and I could reasonably live with some of the minor quibbles mentioned above. On balance, Hutchinson's work is worthy of serious consideration as that long awaited statistics text for people who really want to understand their data." (G Douglas, writing in Education Research and Perspectives, 22, 1995, pp 156-158.)

Published July 1995. A4 format. Paperback booklet of ii + 64 pages. Price: $14 (Australian currency), $11 (U.S. currency), 6 pounds sterling, $14 (Canadian currency), or the equivalent in any major convertible currency. Please order from: Rumsby Scientific Publishing, P.O. Box Q355, Q.V.B., Sydney, N.S.W. 2000, Australia.

In this Version, the examples are taken from subjects like medicine, nursing, physiotherapy, and ophthalmology.

• "An excellent book which I recommend to students and teachers alike." (A S Rigby, writing in Disability and Rehabilitation, 18, 1996, p. 380.)
• "A readable and well-organised resume of course material. A student who had a set of course notes that had the material and organisation of HSESM would indeed be fortunate. Perhaps this suggests that lecturers might find this volume a useful addition to their bookshelves." (I B MacNeill, writing in Chronic Diseases in Canada, 17, 1996, p. 31.)
• "Wonderful paperback... Is your result statistically significant or is it numerology? May I suggest you read these 64 pages?" (L Clodius, writing in European Journal of Plastic Surgery, to appear.)
• "Relevant, lucid, and easy to follow... I can recommend it, without reservation, for those who have had formal statistics tuition but need refreshment - in all senses of the word." (A MacGregor, writing in Cephalalgia, 16, 1996, p 134.)
• "An eminently practical publication - endowed with common sense." (J G Llaurado, writing in International Journal of Bio-Medical Computing, 41, 1996, pp 56-57.)
• "The discussions on the limitations of statistical interpretation make the book an important contribution to an overall understanding of the power of statistical analysis. The book is recommended for individuals involved in research as well as other individuals who read research articles in medical and scientific journals." (J Wegner, writing in Journal of Extra-Corporeal Technology, 28, 1996, to appear.)
• "Given the objective of making a small and compact publication, the author has succeeded without resorting to any shabby or slipshod methods, and has presented the subject matter in a clear and correct manner... In summary, this book is highly recommended for anyone who would like a simple, straightforward and quick reference on statistical methods in health." (Indian Journal of Medical Research, 104, 1996, p 201.)
• "Students learning statistics for the first time may find this book to be a useful, convenient supplement to a more detailed textbook. A second use for the book, and perhaps a more beneficial one, might be as a reference for the clinician who already has a statistical background, but who needs to be refreshed on a formula or concept." (J R Buch, writing in International Contact Lens Clinic, 23, 1996, p 112.)
• "The low price and the first and third parts make the little book well worth acquiring." (B Soderfeldt, writing in Dentomaxillofacial Radiology, 25, 1996, p 309.)

Published August 1995. A4 format. Paperback booklet of ii + 64 pages. Price: $14 (Australian currency), $11 (U.S. currency), 6 pounds sterling, $14 (Canadian currency), or the equivalent in any major convertible currency. Please order from: Rumsby Scientific Publishing, P.O. Box Q355, Q.V.B., Sydney, N.S.W. 2000, Australia.

Many introductory statistics courses emphasise the methods of applied statistics, rather than the proofs of mathematical statistics. Nevertheless, it is usual for such a course to include some proofs, to prevent it becoming too much like a series of recipes, and to answer the student who asks "Why?". This little booklet is a collection of the proofs (there are 10 of them) that are most likely to be met in these circumstances.

For the benefit of those students wishing to insert the proofs at the appropriate point in their own notes, each topic is on a single leaf of paper.

Published September 1993. A5 format. Paperback booklet of ii + 10 pages. Price: $3.50 (Australian currency), $2.50 (U.S. currency), 1.50 pounds sterling, $3 (Canadian currency), or the equivalent in any major convertible currency. Please order from: Rumsby Scientific Publishing, P.O. Box Q355, Q.V.B., Sydney, N.S.W. 2000, Australia.

It is hoped that many students whose first language is Chinese will find this bilingual version of the original booklet to be helpful. The English text and Chinese translation are printed side by side.

Published May 1994. A5 format. Paperback booklet of ii + 10 pages. Price: $4 (Australian currency), $3 (U.S. currency), 1.80 pounds sterling, $3.50 (Canadian currency), or the equivalent in any major convertible currency. Please order from: Rumsby Scientific Publishing, P.O. Box Q355, Q.V.B., Sydney, N.S.W. 2000, Australia.

• "The advice to look at the data to see if it is reasonable, and to look at the results to see if they are believable, is given many times over in different circumstances. To whet the students' appetites, the author has also chosen a number of fascinating illustrations... Many students, and not just beginning ones, would find this little booklet interesting and helpful. I recommend it highly." (L S Nelson, writing in Journal of Quality Technology, 28, 1996, p 129.)
• "I would strongly recommend this booklet to any students starting a course in statistics." (J Pemberton, writing in The Australian Mathematics Teacher, 1996, to appear.)
• "Those studying statistics for the first time will find the advice in this booklet invaluable. It is... an easily read few pages of good advice on how to stop techniques overwhelming common sense." (D Allen, writing in Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health, 50, 1996, p 603.)
• "A great deal of knowledge is packed into 29 pages... A useful little book." (S Patterson, writing in Journal of Public Health Medicine, 18, 1996, pp 244-245.)

Students studying statistics for the first time are often so concerned with learning the techniques --- including the computing methods --- that they lose sight of whether what they are doing is sensible, and whether the results are believable. This little booklet is an attempt to counter this problem. There are 38 short sections, as follows.

Data description.

1. Are they roughly the right size? 2. Think, when using a computer. 3. Discussion of outliers. 4. Transformations. 5. Histograms. 6. Regression: Plot the points. 7. Residuals. 8. Regression towards the mean. 9. Simpson's paradox, and disaggregation of data.

Probability.

10. The contrast between "exclusive" and "independent". 11. The independence assumption. 12. False positives. 13. Frequencies may be easier than probabilities. 14. What does Pr{x1 LE X LE x2} mean? 15. Draw a picture. 16. Roughly what size will the answer be? 17. From a probability to x. 18. The number of s.d.'s is enough information. 19. Watching out for your own mistakes. 20. The variance of the difference. 21. Do not confuse X1 + X2 + ... + Xn with nX1.

Sampling distributions.

22. Standard error of the mean. 23. Sample size. 24. Understanding what someone else has drawn. 25. Use words --- and mental arithmetic, too. 26. One-sided alternative hypotheses. 27. A less extreme significance level? 28. Many tests. 29. Why is the normality assumption important for the t-test? 30. Think about what you are trying to test.

Test interpretation.

31. Significance tests, as contrasted with hypothesis tests. 32. Tests or confidence intervals? 33. Strength of evidence: An alternative. 34. Overview of the controversies.

Data collection.

35. Randomised controls. 36. The importance of independence. 37. Biases in the sampling frame, and from nonrespondents. 38. The randomised response technique.

Published July 1995. A5 format. Paperback booklet of ii + 29 pages. Price: $4 (Australian currency), $3 (U.S. currency), 2 pounds sterling, $4 (Canadian currency), or the equivalent in any major convertible currency. Please order from: Rumsby Scientific Publishing, P.O. Box Q355, Q.V.B., Sydney, N.S.W. 2000, Australia.

Multiple-choice questions are widely used in tests of intelligence, aptitude, ability, achievement, and knowledge, from kindergarten to postgraduate medicine. Item response theory (IRT) is the branch of mathematical psychology that is concerned with the probability of success when someone attempts such a multiple-choice question. Several excellent books about IRT and its applications are available, and this booklet does not compete with them. Rather, it supplements them by stimulating the reader to think about the alternative choices that can be made when fixing the details of an IRT model.

• "This brief monograph, published in pocket-book size, focuses admirably on the debates concerning what item response theory (IRT) is and is not, and what it does and does not do, without co-opting the reader for any particular agenda... In short, the monograph is true to its title, and provides an excellent precis, at low cost, of the controversies both for workers in the area, and for those wishing to learn more about IRT." (D Chant, writing in Psychological Test Bulletin, 4, 1991, p 107.)

Published July 1991. A6 format. Paperback booklet of ii + 58 pages. 80 references. Price: $9 (Australian currency), $7 (U.S. currency), 4 pounds sterling, $9 (Canadian currency), or the equivalent in any major convertible currency. Please order from: Rumsby Scientific Publishing, P.O. Box Q355, Q.V.B., Sydney, N.S.W. 2000, Australia.

T P Hutchinson

phutchin@bunyip.bhs.mq.edu.au

14.June.96, latest revision 12.Dec.97