At the time I am finalizing this newsletter, the following big (or simi-big) names still unsigned are: Jimmy Jackson, Kevin Johnson, Dennis Rodman (reports are strong for the Magic), Scott Burrell (OK, not even simi-big) and Oliver Miller (name is not big, but he certainly is, which is why he is a free agent).
All valuations based on the 8 categories: FG%, FT%, 3’s, Reb, Ast, Blks, Stls, Pts.
You win the league by getting players in the later rounds that should have gone early. Don’t be afraid to draft injured players and replace them. I love drafting injured players because I KNOW I will get a good player in the reserve draft and the injured player helps me when he comes back. Don’t worry about drafting too much of one category if you are drafting quality. Later in the season, when you are running away with that category, you can take one of your lesser players that do that specific category and trade him for help in another category. Quality is what wins. This year, with so many games per week, take “young legs”. All basketball “coyotes” (fantasy players who sneak in and “steal” the best talent) know that young legs last out the pounding of the 5-game weeks where “old knees” will be resting every few games and not play in back-to-back-to-back. Draft Western Conference players because they play an up-tempo game while Eastern Conference teams play hard-nose defense. This year most games will be within the conference. Remember too that the West has the Nuggets, Clippers, Mavericks, Warriors, Grizzlies and the Kings, so you play more against bad teams. Bad teams, better stats (although the Bulls won’t win 10 games this year with THAT team). When I say take a guy in the 8th round, that is where I believe he will go. That doesn’t mean that if you really want the guy, you shouldn’t take him sooner. I truly believe that if you think a guy is going to have a bust-out year and there is no one that HAS to be taken before him, grab him when you want him. Don’t wait just because he “belongs” in a certain round. When I tell you the round to take him, use that as a guide based on how YOU like the guy. You will also see guys that I say “take here” that rate higher than someone else who I say “take later”. That can be due to one player getting a category that is more difficult to get (blocks, 3’s) over someone who does things that are more easily attainable. It may also be that I think you can get one guy later anyway and if you want someone else, take them because they won’t be there later.
ATLANTA HAWKS
Not a lot of positive activity this year. Seems like a lot of free agents turn down going there. Wonder why? Maybe because they have to run around chasing the ball while Mutumbo wags his finger? I think in the last year, wagging the finger has proven to be a mistake for SEVERAL people! Mutumbo still is a great choice IF you already have firepower and need REB and BLK’s. 3rd round at the earliest! If you need a power center before the 3rd round, there are enough to not take him. If you can’t get him in the 3rd because someone has been foolish enough to take him, enjoy the fact that you will beat that team and draft Bradley in the late 4th or 5th round (again, if you have drafted the firepower points, steals and assists), or get Ilgauskas and Divac later. Alan Henderson will take over fine as power forward for Laettner. In 33 games last year AFTER Laettner went down, Alan averaged 17 ppg with over 6 reb. But he shoots 66% FT so that will hurt some. Good as a 6th round draft or late 5th round. Atlanta signed it’s small forward, LaPhonso Ellis. He will help them more in real ball than he will help you in Roto-ball. He won’t get the rebounds on this team, and he shoots 3’s, but not at a good rate. There are also other scorers. Stats will go down for the ‘Fonz so leave him till the 8th round which means someone else can have him. Ty Corbin is worthless now, as he pretty much was before. He will get a few 3’s and not hurt your % while stealing a few passes. This is all well and good when he started. That is over now. Can Steve Smith do it again? He rates a 4th round pick to me, but may not be able to keep up the stats if Mookie is back to his old self of throwing up 3’s. I wouldn’t touch Smith if Kittles, Christie, Eddie Jones, Nick Anderson, Finley, Barry and Sprewell are still available. If they weren’t, then if I needed a 2-guard, I’d take Steve and be happy. But that should be more like the 5th round. Take him over Wesley Person and Pietkowski. If he does it again, I will be surprised, but he can still be adequate. Mookie Blaylock had an off year last year. He was hurt but when he came back in the 2nd half, had his old steals (had 10 in one game). His 3’s were down some, but that is likely due to Smith and Corbin hitting a better % that Mookie. Take Mookie early 3rd round after Stoudamire, Marbury and Kidd but before Wesley, Van Exel, Kenny Anderson, Brandon and Cassell. No bench at all (again). Recasner is in Charlotte. Anthony Johnson will back up Mookie and be worth picking up ONLY if the Mook goes down for a significant time.
BOSTON CELTICS
If you don’t care about %’s, take Antoine Walker early in the first round. If I sort my rankings without %, he is in the top 3. He may not hit the 3’s as much as last year, but he will just get better and better. Even with bad %, top 14 pick. No center at all to consider. McCarty gets steals and 3’s for a big man, but not enough minutes to get stats. Battie is there now and while I love his raw talent, he hasn’t done anything to justify drafting him unless he starts. If he starts at center, take him in the 11th round. Paul Pierce is a great talent and will start at the “3”, regardless of Pitino’s stupid comment that McCarty will start over him. Won’t happen, at least not for long. Can score, but FT% is no bargain. Good pick in the 5th round, but won’t be there so you may not get him. I think he has a chance to be rookie of the year, which would elevate his worth to the 4th round. I just can’t see him getting stats to justify much earlier. Mercer had a better year than I expected. He is kind of like Jeff Malone used to be, except he gets steals. Good %, points, steals, no assists or 3’s, so take in the 7th round. Kenny Anderson was horrible. But he always has one up year followed by one down year. Take him in the 5th round and you will get a GREAT bargain. He won’t get good FG%, but can get assists, 3’s, steals and points. If Popeye Jones gets some time, he is a “junior Jason Williams”, but he will only get 15 minutes a game unless he gets some center time. If he plays center, he is a great 8th round pick. Barros, according to Pitino, is in the best shape of anyone in the NBA. That will help him on the bench.
CHARLOTTE HORNETS
Derrick Coleman at center! He has a clause in his contract that he doesn’t have to guard the center. That will fall on Anthony Mason. Expect the two of them to break into a fight 3 minutes into the first game. Coleman, if he stays healthy, will get his stats. He always does. If you think he can stay healthy, you can steal him in the 5th or 6th round. If you really want him, his stats will justify late 4th round, but you can get him later. Even if you are afraid of him, don’t let him sit there past the 6th round. Mason will get you solid, sure stats in rebounds, assists, FG% and some points. He is a 3 ½ category player who hurts you in FT% and gets no blocks, steals or 3’s. Belongs in the late 5th round but won’t be there because some fool will take him sooner. Don’t cry over it. Rice is usually worth a 3rd round pick (never sooner due to limited stats). He is hurt this year and you shouldn’t take him before the 7th round. The exception to this is if you are real good at “coyoting” players AFTER the draft for injury replacements (one of my specialties). If you are good at this, it allows you to take an injured player early knowing you will get big help when he returns and you can still be in solid contention from post-draft help. Rice has great %’s, scores and hits 3’s. He can be dominating in those categories, but used to get rebounds and steals. Now he just shoots. Used to be equal to Richmond, now it isn’t close. With the injury, don’t think about him. Phills is a nice player who gets some steals and hits a few 3’s. Don’t take him before the 12th round. Be aware of him early to see if he steps up with Rice hurt. Wesley will be a better pick this year without Rice. He should get more 3’s. He is going to be a bargain in the 5th round. Who he gets assists passing to, I don’t yet know. Take him in the late 4th if you need a good, solid guard and you won’t be sorry. Recasner is worthless unless Wesley gets hurt, but he can hit the 3 if he gets some time. He played well when Blaylock was out last year. Chuck Person signed and he can get some good stats till Rice returns. Replaces Dell Curry of the bench and Rice (while he is out) as the 3-point threat.
CHICAGO BULLS
Without Jordan, Pippen and Rodman, the only sure draftable players are Kukoc and Brent Barry. It looks like Brent Barry will be the 2-guard with some time at the point. Take him early and enjoy the steal. He should be taken no later than the 5th round. He will give you Eddie Jones stats this year. In his first 35 games last year before he got hurt his stats were superb (over 2 “3’s” a game). He is worth a 4th round pick but try snake him later. But DO NOT miss him. His problem was simple. BILL FITCH IS A HORRIBLE COACH. He is the reason Barry is not a star already. The problem with Kukoc is that everyone will want him without realizing he has little help and without the studs from the last years, he can’t produce. He is a “spot-up” shooter. He hit the “3” because people had to cover Pippen and Jordan. He wasn’t double teamed. He can’t get assists when there is no one else there to pass to that can shoot. He never rebounded and is injury prone. But you want him bad! Jerry Krause loves him and fought with Phil Jackson over him. He WANTS Kukoc to be a stud to prove he can recognize talent. Kukoc will get every chance to be a star. If you want to speculate on someone on Chicago, Corey Benjamin as a rookie MAY be worth a look in the 12th round or on your reserve list. I guess someone else has to score on that team. As of this writing, they can’t win 10 games. Ron Harper used to play. He has nothing left Mark Bryant may get some boards. The problem is, even when you know who the 3 other starters are, it is hard to believe any one of them can give you stats that you can’t beat elsewhere. Just ignore the Bull players other than Kukoc and Barry and you won’t miss any secrets to make you lose sleep.
CLEVELAND CAVALIERS
Ilgauskas was a surprise last year and will be better this year. A center who hits FT’s is good to have. Good FG%, rebounds, some blocks and points. No steals or assists, but he will be a bargain if you can get him in the 6th round. He belongs in the 5th round based on what I believe he will do this year. If you don’t get a dominating center in the first 2 rounds, take the points guards and “2” guards who hit 3’s and get steals. Take Pippen and Tim Hardaway, the follow them with Eddie Jones. In the 5th & 6th rounds you can take Ilgauskas and Sabonis and have superb, front-line centers. You would be light on blocks, but there are other things to do about that. Kemp looks like he swallowed a whale during the lockout. He also sucked last year in FG% where he used to dominate. He still gets some steals and blocks, but not in the bunches as prior years. He is worth a risk if you trust him to come back and work hard. That is not, however, his history. I would take Shawn at the end of the 3rd round and hope I got a bargain. At worse you break even. Cedric Henderson worked hard in the off season shooting a thousand jump shots a day. I hope he gets a chance to show it. I still wouldn’t take him sooner that the 12th round until I saw some improvement. He could be a bargain. Johnny Newman signed in Cleveland but he does NOTHING but score. Don’t bother with him. Wesley Person hit tons of 3’s last year and got rebounds and steals. That was one week. The next week he did nothing. He was so inconsistent it drove his owners crazy. If you draft him, you have to hold him through the bad weeks to get the games where he hits 7 “3’s”. 5th round is soon enough to take him. Brevin Knight is a 5th round pick. If you draft guys like Big Dog Robinson and Glen Rice, players who score but don’t get you assists and rebounds, Brevin helps tremendously. You will have to carry a point guard who does not score or hit 3’s. Great compliment point if you have Payton or Tim Hardaway and plenty of scoring. If you are drafting a team where you plan on trashing scoring or 3’s from the start Brevin moves up to the 3rd round. Potepenko and Sura are worthless.
DALLAS MAVERICKS
Shawn “Death Stick” Bradley is an enigma (we call him the Death Stick because he is death to the team that takes him). He gets so many blocks with a few rebounds and points thrown in, he is always taken higher than his stats deserve. But it is not always a bad idea to take him high. I took him last year in the 4th round because I had a good all-around team and needed blocks. After taking him, I didn’t need much more in blocks. Blocks are so hard to get, when you can get someone who gets around 25% of the amount needed in a category that it takes to win a category, I believe that justifies “upping” his values. He is still a stiff, but he is improving each year, and at 7’6”, he will always get enough time to get the huge blocks and enough rebounds and points to take him in the 4th or 5th round if you don’t get a better center sooner. Chris Anstey backs up the Death Stick and may beat him out. Makes Stick a risk. Take Michael Finley in the 3rd round and don’t even look back. He is super Finley. Cedric Ceballos signed and should be the small forward. He always gets his stats (well, scoring, offensive rebounds and FG% with an occasional 3 and good FT%), so take him in the 6th round. Gary Trent signed in Dallas and rebounds with good FG% but is no big deal. If he starts, take him in the 11th round. Dirk Nowitski is the secret. Nelson loves him and when that happens to a talented player, he gets his time. Steal him in the 7th round. Nash is going to be great, but no one will be surprised. If he is still there, take him in the 5th or 6th round. Don’t draft Pack, Eric Stickland, Shawn Respert or Khalid Reeves. Samaki Walker played well last year and either he or Trent may start. That makes him an 11th round pick if he wins the spot, but take him in the 10th because he blocks more shots that Trent. The trouble is that is too many starters in the front court: Ceballos, Nowitski, Trent and Walker. Only two can start. Watch the exhibition games, but Trent has the worst chance and my call is Cedric and Dirk (Walker has a sprained ankle). But, Cedric has always been a scorer even off the bench so he may be on the bench and still be draftable. Kind of like Kobe, where he comes in after the starters needs some rest and gives them instant offense. I like Club Ced here. Hot Rod Williams will back up the Stick. Don’t pick him up unless the Stick gets hurt. Even then, don’t pick him up. A C Green is still alive and rebounding. Just don’t let him do it on your team.
DENVER NUGGETS
Keon Clark is a center. He won’t play in Denver this year. Raef LaFrenz is too thin to play center, but he will, and he has some talent. Take him in the 9th round. McDyess is back and now that he doesn’t play for “Coach Mental” Ainge, his minutes will be consistent and his talent will show. Blocks, rebounds, points, steals & FG%. But he is a black hole for assists. Take him in the 5th round. I like Eric Williams a lot and he would have been such a sleeper last year if he hadn’t gotten hurt. Now there is too much talent in Denver for him to score 20 ppg. Expect 16 ppg with good % and not much else. 6th round if you want him. Bryant Stith was a stiff, but an injured one. He is healthy and I expect worth a 9th round pick. Take Van Exel in the 5th round if he is there but hope someone else takes this cocky point guard with bad knees. Bad knees in a year of too many games. Dangerous. He will get 3’s and assists and score, but he may blow up anytime. Cory Alexander is a great backup and could help a lot if he started. And they just signed Cory to a 5 year, $2 million a year deal. Sounds like they like him too, so they may have to find some time for him at the shooting guard. But now they also have Billups and he is not draftable while Van Exel starts. If Van Exel gets hurt, take Billups or Alexander, whichever gets the time. Danny Fortson has no chance to get enough minutes to produce stats unless there is an injury. Too bad, he can play.
DETROIT PISTONS
Bison Dele (aka Brian Williams) gets good stats but is in the doghouse in Detroit. If he leaves, take him in the 6th round. If he stays, take him in the 6th round too. He will do the same thing. He strained a quadricep in the first exhibition game and played only 9 minutes getting 5 fouls. Loy Vaught is solid and is worth a 6th round pick. He is complaining of shin splints in training camp though. Both he and Bison are black holes in the assist department. Grant Hill is always overvalued. He is so solid, he goes in the top 6 but he is essentially a 4 category player. Assists, points, steals & rebounds. No 3’s, few blocks, and no help in the %. I will never get Hill because he will be gone before I would take him. Don’t take him in the first round. Then you don’t have to worry about getting him. Never take Stackhouse unless you are giving up FG%. He is a shooting guard that can’t shoot. He is an athlete who plays basketball on talent alone. He is so overpaid and over-rated it isn’t funny. Don’t worry about getting him cheap because he will be gone LONG before you should consider him. If he is there in the 10th, take him, but that won’t happen because someone likes scorers and he does that. This year he will back up Hill and Dumars. Dumar hits 3’s and does nothing else. 11th round if you need 3’s and are desperate. Same with Hunter. Seems like they are the same player, huh? Laettner is hurt and by the time he gets back, he won’t get enough meaningful minutes to produce. Can’t beat out Vaught or Dele by then. Next year. I also like Jerome Williams as a power forward, but again, Vaught and Laettner keep his minutes down so you can’t draft him.
GOLDEN STATE
Dampier is a solid 7th round pick, but has terrible %. Foyle will improve so watch him, but he has no place to get minutes yet. If he does, grab him because he can jump, block shots and went to Newell’s big man camp. Jamison is a great rookie and is a 6th round pick. He will be gone by then but don’t worry, it won’t hurt you to miss him because he won’t get enough minutes to give you stats. Caffey will rebound and is worth a 10th round pick. Donyell Marshall is the big DROP this year. He has sore hamstrings and he may be traded. While his stats will get him drafted by the 5th round, don’t let it be by you. There are too many forwards for him to do that this year. Not enough balls either. Bogues is a figurehead. Don’t get fooled into taking him. He is injured enough in a less demanding year. Knees are gone. Don’t even think about taking Bimbo Coles. Any bimbo from the White House would be as good. If Starks starts at the off guard, he will hit 3’s and is worthy of an 7th round pick At least he is training with them. Delk may play some point and if so can shoot and is worth an 8th round pick. Seems like a team of 7th & 8th round picks to me. Chris Mills needs to start to get stats. He won’t.
HOUSTON
Olajuwan used to be in the first 3 picks drafted. You should take him in the first 8 still if you can get him. Barkley is too injured to depend on now. You should take him in the 5th round and no sooner. BUT…he has been bugged by Jordan’s comment that he won’t ever win a ring due to lack of commitment. He is working hard and I bet he comes back with a big year. If you can handle the injury risk, he could have a huge rebound year with good points. Maybe grab him in the 4th round. He would be a steal if he trys. But he will kill your FT%. Pippen is a top 10 pick. He does so much you can’t avoid it and he is on a mission this year to prove how integral a part of Jordan’s team he was. No point guard on this team should be drafted. The rookies drafted, Bryce Drew, Cutino Mobley and Michael Dickerson are solid, but won’t get the ball enough to produce stats.
Forget Antoine Carr and Eddie Johnson. Carr has hurt his knee and MAY require surgery. Othello Harrington is a solid backup with potential, but until Barkley is done, he won’t play.
INDIANA PACERS
Rik Smits is a 8th round pick only because he blocked some shots last year. But he will be gone by then to people who lover scorers. Antonio Davis should start this year over Dale. Don’t draft Dale. Take Antonio in the 8th round. Chris Mullin used to be super. Now he is not draftable unless you bag points. But neither is Jalen Rose or Travis Best yet. Bird has indicated he is going to “switch” roles for them this year, making Jalen a point guard off the bench and Best a shooting guard. I don’t think that will last long, although it doesn’t affect their draft status unless someone gets hurt. Mark Jackson can be drafted in the 7th round ONLY if you need assists badly. Don’t bother with Sam Perkins. Reggie Miller is a solid 4th round pick giving you 3’s, points and good % & nothing else.
Los Angeles Clippers
Olawokandi had problems in Greece. He was in foul trouble constantly and was not that impressive in stats. What is he going to do against Shaq? Let someone else draft him. Oh, his FT% sucks too. Lorenzen Wright will get lots of time and is another player stiffed by BILL FITCH. Take Lorenzen in the 8th round and you may get a “coyote” bargain. Brian Skinner probably won’t get much time, but he is built like Karl Malone, so watch him. Rodney Rogers and Lamond Murray had good years. They are 8th round picks too. But they belong in the 8th round, Wright belongs higher but you can steal him in the 8th. I think if you are going to take a chance, grab Murray and Wright. Coach Ford likes Murray (he may play some off guard too) a lot and Wright is going to rebound, plus Rogers is slightly hurt and missing much of camp. Maurice Taylor showed good talent when he got time. Taylor is hurt also. Again this year there is too many players. Imagine, saying that the Clippers have too much talent. Now that they have a decent coach, maybe they can do something. At least Ford as coach won’t be playing Vrankovic and letting Wright sit (as Fitch did). Pietkowski played 29 games last year after Barry was traded and hit 62 3’s. Take him in the 7th round and you will have a steal (although he has been pathetic in 2 exhibition games, I hope it is because he was guarded by Eddie Jones). Derrick Martin is a point guard. You have to need one bad to take him. If you do take him, don’t take him before the 10th round.
LOS ANGELES LAKERS
Shaq has to be taken in the first 4 picks. Just plan on finishing last in FT%. That is ok when you plan on it. Just draft some of the following players to go with him: Baker, Blaylock, Iverson, Marbury, Alan Henderson, Corliss Williamson, Olowokandi, Webber, Sherman Douglas, Jason Williams (NJ). You get the point. Re-sort your player ratings by “total points without FT%”. Then you can draft accordingly. It does make certain players become more valuable to you that to some opponent. Shaq has been having some tendenitis problems in his knees. A short season won’t help, but you have to take him. Robert Horry doesn’t help unless you “bag” points. Travis Knight won’t get enough stats to make him draftable, although if he starts at power forward, he may be worth a 12th round pick. Eldon Campbell is NOT the stiff the papers make him out to be. Well, ok, as long as he is a Laker he is, but if he is traded, take him in the 6th round. Rick Fox is a 10th round draft choice as a Laker. The real problem is that only 3 players can be drafted high. Shaq, Kobe and Eddie Jones. Take Kobe in the 6th if you need points and take Eddie in the 4th. Derek Fisher will hold the point this year and can be drafted in the 9th round. He won’t score at all. Next year, Tyrone Lue will be the man, but in this short season, he can’t beat out Fisher.
MIAMI HEAT
Mourning will go in the late second round. Unless you really need a center, don’t take him. He gives you scoring, FG%, reb and blks but zero otherwise and kills your FT% (while shooting a LOT of FT). You are so much better off taking a great, all-around player and trying to pick up blocks later (or throwing away blocks as the category). I don’t understand everyone’s fascination with this big stiff. He used to block 300 shots and then he was worth more because, like Mutombo he dominated the category. Now he just is a good shot-blocking center, not much better that most stud centers. He does NOT rate in the top 30. BUT, since blocks are a tough-to-get category, if my first round pick was a stud point guard, I might take Alonzo around 19 or 20. Even then I’d cringe knowing that I left better players on the table. And I wouldn’t take him if a stud point guard were still available. Tim Hardaway should be taken no earlier than pick number 9 and no later than pick number 12. PJ Brown is a nice 10th rounder. Mashburn sometimes is worth the 9th round when he is into playing and scoring. Depends on his mood each year. He doesn’t do much else though. Vashon Lenard is hurt. But he says he will “try to play”. I don’t like that chance. His 3’s are worth grabbing in the 11th round though. Terry Porter is a nice backup who hits 3’s. Nick Weatherspoon is there and could get lots of time. He is a Riley-type player who will rebound and score. If Reily gets fed up with Jamal at the small forward, expect ‘Spoon to get good time and good stats. I’d take him in the 12th or on my reserve list. Mark Davis is a nice reserve who gets nice stats when he plays. He is also a nice guy not to draft.
MILWAUKEE BUCKS
A team full of fantasy stat players who don’t do well in the real NBA. But we don’t care now, do we? Big Dog Robinson used to get steals and assists of an acceptable amount to make him a stud. But his FG% sucked. Now he just scores in bunches. Better FG% and some steals. I like him a lot, but he shouldn’t really go before late 3rd round AT BEST. Since he will be gone by pick 30, don’t worry about him. Let someone else draft him and then scramble to get some rebounds, blocks, steals, assist, etc. You take Eddie Jones or Tom Gugliotta or Jason Kidd and be happy unless you really need scoring by then. Ervin Johnson blocks shots and rebounds. NOTHING ELSE! He is an 8th round pick but will be taken higher due to the “block” factor. Tyrone Hill gets in lots of foul trouble (even more than Ervin) and sits a lot. Take him in the 10th round. Ray Allen is a coming star, but Big Dog doesn’t like to share the ball. Ray was super when Brandon was out last year, getting assists out the wasoo. With Terrell back, that will drop, but hopefully the FG% will rise. Take Ray in the early 4th round. Take Terrell in the late 2nd or early 3rd. Now, he has sat the exhibition games with a strained quadricep, but he is expected to play. I’d take him before I’d take Mourning (Terrell does more). Del Curry signed and will back up Ray Allen. Take him only if Allen gets hurt (or Brandon). Gilliam is beyond his prime, but used to be a solid player. If injuries cause him to play, grab him up. Tractor Traylor could well be the next Barkley….or the next Danny Fortson. I like him though, because he went to Pete Newell’s big man camp and EVERY player that goes there improves greatly. You want to hear who went there before last year? Lamond Murray. Oh, and Lorenzen Wright also went this year. The problem with Traylor this year is how he will get minutes on that front line, plus who will give him the ball. Too many scorers on this team. But I would take him if he is there in the 11th round if I see him getting any time in the preseason games. He could get Hill’s minutes. Now, if he only could get a pass thrown his way. Brandon is fragile, but even if Elliott Perry gets the time, Allen will get the point guard stats.
