Brewers Batting Stats Analysis

 

-Although the Crew will have numerous rookies and other invitees at Spring Training, I have compiled only the 2003 batting statistics on the 14 position players that had significant major league time last year.  These statistics will give a good indication of what to expect from the lineup this year.  Obviously, it is tough to project the performance of players that did not play in the majors last year.  These stats are about the most accurately predictive of any batting stats, but clearly have limitations like all numbers.  I will analyze these numbers at the bottom and hopefully come out with a pitching analysis sometime in the next couple weeks.

 

 

 

 

Glossary:

AB = At-bats

OBP = On-base percentage

SLG = Slugging Percentage

HR = Home Runs

BB = Walks

K = Strikeouts

SB = Stolen Bases

CS = Caught Stealing

#P/PA = Pitches per Plate Appearance

RC27 = Runs created per 27 outs (Estimates how many runs per game a team made

   up of nine of the same player would score)

 

 

 

So how does this project the Brew Crew’s lineup to be in 2004?

 

Well, a few things stick out as major indicators to me.  Several stats point to the fact that the Brewers should be a very patient team at the plate.  To start, I am really excited about the team’s overall pitches per plate appearance.  For those unfamiliar with this statistic, a 3.75 number is about average.  Taking pitches is one of the most under-appreciated batting elements in baseball.  For those Brewers fans that loved watching Scotty Podsednik at the plate last year, expect more of that this year.  As you can see, he took 4.0 pitches per plate appearance, which is well above average.  However, I am quite pleased to see that 7 players are at 4.0 or better and most of the other players have decent plate patience.  I’m going to venture to say that the Brewers won’t be making a ton of easy outs.  The team will make pitchers work. 

 

One thing that plate patience generally reflects is on-base percentage.  All in all, the team has pretty good OBP numbers.  Ben Grieve was let go because his batting average was terrible, but if you look at his walk total you’d realize that this acquisition might be quite a steal.  Another bright spot is the relatively low total of strikeouts compared to walks.  As I see it, only Junior Spivey and Wes Helms need to shape up their walk/strikeout numbers.  Clearly Jeff Liefer’s numbers in this and every other area are awful, but I’ll discuss that later.  In addition to working the counts and getting on base, the team should again be one of the top base running teams in the league.

 

Though the on-base numbers are quite promising considering the low payroll, the team is really lacking in the power area.  Jenkins clearly has the most power potential, but his future on the team is still very questionable for the entire year.  The slugging percentages are quite low, which could spell trouble producing runs.  There are some players that simply won’t hit many extra base hits and certainly few home runs.  If the Brewers is going to score enough runs to make up for Wayne Franklin and Matt Kinney’s pitching, it is going to need certain players to step up their game.  Junior Spivey showed far greater home run potential two years ago than last year, and he also showed a far better ability to get on base.  Ben Grieve used to be a 20-30 home run guy before injuries the last few years.  Lyle Overbay hit 19 home runs in his last year at AAA, but hasn’t hit for much power in the majors yet.  Wes Helms could hit many more home runs if he improved his plate approach, which is something he showed signs of doing last year.  Finally, Jeff Liefer was very highly rated, but completely fell apart last year.  If he found his swing again and made the team out of spring training, the Brewers again might have made a huge steal.

 

The last stats that are more for your own enjoyment are the RC27 numbers.  These really do give a pretty accurate estimate of the most effective hitters.  Clearly, Mighty Brooks Kieschnick was the most productive hitter last year.  Some players, such as Junior Spivey and Craig Counsell, will definitely improve this number in 2004.  Fortunately, I can’t really point to any player as someone who will be less productive.  The reason I am optimistic is that the team’s strength is its ability to take pitches and walks.  This ability tends to not leave a player as much when he is slumping as does power and batting average.  Therefore, even if a player like Scott Podsednik has an off year, he still will be productive.  The perfect example is Ben Grieve who last year hit for almost no power and had a.230 batting average, but still managed to be respectable because of a .371 OBP and excellent walk/strikeout ratio.  In addition, we must all remember that the roster is not limited to these players.  The team very well could find another Scott Podsednik in spring training.  The lineup will improve from last year’s statistical projection, but unless some players step up to how well they can play, the team might not score enough runs.