Brewers 2004 Pitching Report

            As pitchers and catchers are set to report to spring training within the next week, I thought it was a good time to analyze the 30 or more pitchers that will be attending this year’s gala.  As was the case with the hitters, there will be a diverse crowd of familiar and foreign faces.  Doug Melvin has, once again, scoured the ranks of MLB refuse and AAAA players to come up with the needed depth through which to sieve to find a respectable pitching staff.  Unfortunately for Melvin and Brewers fans alike, little could be done about the starting pitching problem that carried over from last year.  Given the lack of payroll, Melvin could not seek many pitchers in this year’s free agent market.  The ones he did seek, such as Rick Helling, signed elsewhere.  Melvin was left with no option but to continue his scheme of overwhelming the system with decent but unproven pitchers.  The hope this year, as it was last, is that a couple of these guys will step up a notch, as Doug Davis and Dan Kolb did, and contribute meaningfully to the team.

            Here is a list of the pitchers who will attend spring training this year and the numbers they compiled last year….

 

 

            These pitchers can be broken down into four categories, each of which I will discuss; prospects, players from last year, older minor leaguers from the Brewers’ system, and newcomers.  The prospects, which include Sarfate, Saenz, Martinez (probably not any more), Liriano, Hendrickson, Matt Ford, Diggins, and Jorge de la Rosa, represent a significant portion of the pitching prospects in the organization’s system.  I really don’t think any of these guys are ready for the major leagues this season, but the team is going to give them a shot to impress at spring training.  Some could earn a spot if they were exceptionally good, but the others are being moved slowly through the system, injured, or in police custody.  Matt Ford was decent for the Brewers last season, but he was only kept on the team because he was a Rule 5 player.  Do not expect him to get a chance again this coming year because the team wants to give him a much-needed extra year in the minors.  De la Rosa might be the team’s brightest pitching prospect now, so expect it to be quite careful with pushing him to the minors too fast.  He and some of these other guys might get a look in September or earlier if there are significant trades or injuries during the year.  I will write more about these prospects when I do my preseason prospect report, which should be done sometime within the next month.

            Most of the pitchers from last year are back with the team.  Anyone who would have been a free agent was wisely traded before the end of last season.  The team is enjoying the most stability at pitching from season to season that I can ever remember.  Unfortunately, the pitching wasn’t very good last year.  All five starters are back, but unlike other people, I do not see this group as being very stable.  Basically, do not expect the same performances from the starting pitchers this year.  My reason for this feeling lies in the fact that there was little correlation between starting pitchers’ actual ERA’s and what their other numbers’ predictive values would indicate those ERA’s to be.  Based on these correlations, expect to see a significant rise in the ERA of Doug Davis, a slight rise to Wes Obermueller, a decent decrease to Ben Sheet’s ERA, and a bigger decrease to Matt Kinney’s ERA.  If I had to guess now, I’d say that Sheets will be the Brewers all star this year.  I greatly question what will happen with Wayne Franklin since he showed signs of having contracted Glendon-Rusch-syndrome last year.  Of course, we must all recognize the fact that one or more of these guys will be injured or traded this year.  This leaves the same old question: who is going to be starting as the season goes along?

            Any one of the five favored starters could go down, and Melvin has done a good job bringing in potential rotation fillers.  In fact, I would not be surprised if some turnover in the rotation occurred before spring training ended.  Chris Capuano has probably the best chances of making the starting rotation, though he is still largely unproven at the major league level.  Of course, Dave Burba or Brooksimus Kieschnick could be an emergency starter, but I’d doubt either would be given a full time job.  This is where the newcomers come in.  Adrian Hernandez could be a great addition to this team.  For those who don’t know because you’ve never heard him called by his proper name, this is “El Duque” Hernandez.  I would have thought there’d be some demand for this guy in the offseason, but I guess not.  This doesn’t mean that he is washed up.  He had pretty solid numbers last year at AAA and has major league experience.  He has a high ceiling and is very low risk.  Victor Santos is another option if push came to kill, but the crew would have to be pretty desperate at that point.

            The team has way too many pitchers in camp, so some are going to have to go home early.  I don’t expect the prospects to stay very long, because Melvin and Co. really want to find the right guys in limited time for the major league team.  There aren’t too many starting pitchers around meaning that there are a lot of relievers from which to choose.  Melvin will have 18 different relievers/starters looking to fill 7 spots.  The organization has had several long-time minor leaguers make it to where Dan Kolb was last year before he finally got a call up.  In addition, Melvin has found as many cheap relievers as he could find this offseason.  This all adds up to a mighty fine competition.

            The early favorites to fill those spots are Dan Kolb for sure, Luis Vizcaino because they just signed him to a deal, Brooks Kieschnick for his bat and good looks, and Jeff Bennett because he was a Rule 5 guy.  Considering that another spot or two will go to Burba, Hernandez, Capuano, or any other starter made reliever, there are only one or two spots left for a legitimate setup guy to Kolb.  Neugebauer may be back for a little while before injury, and he too might be competing for a spot.  This is where the real battle between long-time minor leaguers and newcomers begins.  Let’s say there are two spots left, and the Brewers really need good, late-inning relievers.  Who should the team take?

            To start the debate, let’s eliminate the variable of left handed advantage.  The only lefty coming out of the pen will be Franklin, Capuano, or Davis depending on who doesn’t make the starting rotation.  Let’s also eliminate the variable of age, since all of these guys are in their mid-upper twenties.  Representing the newcomers are Travis Phelps, Matt Wise, Brian Bowles, and, to a certain extent, Mike Crudale.  Wise is still recovering from an injury that eliminated him from last season, but could return later in the year.  Crudale could be really good, but cannot walk guys the way he did last year.  All of these guys have major league experience, and some of it has been pretty solid.  I’ll let you all look at the numbers above and decide whom you’d like to see from this group.  The other side, the long-time minor leaguers, has Mike Adams, the Childers brothers, Ben Ford, and Leo Estrella as the members most likely to make the team.  Some of these guys have really good numbers, specifically in the strikeout/walks/innings pitched department (look above).  Only spring training will decide who makes the team.

            The one thing I hope to see is most of the guys that don’t make the team stay in the system somewhere.  It is important to remember that this will not be the year for the Brewers.  However, this year is one of the most important ones in franchise history.  The team needs to be respectable for the city and fans here, but it must also build for the next few years when all the pieces should come into place.  If everything is done properly, the organization might be ready for a 2005 run.  Keeping in mind that this is the ultimate goal, I’d say that Doug Melvin has done a great job in the pitching department this offseason.  As I have repeatedly mentioned before, I like the policy of “quantity equals eventual quality.”  The additions of Capuano and de la Rosa figure to help the team in the future.  In addition, Adrian Hernandez and some of the other newcomers could prove to have excellent rebound years.  With the quantity of pitchers, you’d have to figure that someone is going to break through.  The more that you keep in the system, the more time prospects are given to develop.  Also, the more pitchers you have, the more pitchers you can trade.  Remember that the team needs to be decent, but really could use more help down the road.  I’d go more in depth about the minor league pitchers the team has, but that will be the subject of a later discussion on the minor leagues.

            Pitchers are set to report in only a few days, and I am really excited.  All of us Brewers fans have quite a competition to watch in the coming months.  I personally cannot wait to see Wayne Franklin lose his starting job and some of these relievers to step up and increase their trade values.  When the season finally arrives, and oh is it close to doing so, expect some improvement with the starting pitchers.  Do not, however, expect the starters to be anywhere near above average this year.  They likely will still be below average, but at least these guys are cheap.  I am willing to bet that the Brewers will have one of the worst ranked bullpens going into the year by most of the press, but I wouldn’t be too surprised if the pen turned out to be a blessing this year.  As you can tell by now, I am happy about the number of guys that Melvin and Co. could choose.  Unlike other years, I think the team really has some legitimate depth in this position.  Considering how many trades have taken place in the past, this is a good luxury to have.  Whether these guys can rebound, make the step up to the majors, or just find a way to handle a whole year’s work behind a generally poor starting rotation is certainly still up in the air.  Also, we cannot ignore the fact that there is a definite lack of left-handed help in the pen.  With all these things considered, it is easy to say that the Brewers will have a very poor pitching staff, and much of the media will.  However, remember the long-term goals and how little money has been spent on this pitching.  With that considered, I am and think I will be generally pleased with the pitching staff this year.