Brewers Farm Report (2/18/04)

            Last year saw such improvement in the Brewers’s farm system that the organization was widely recognized as one of the top organizations in 2003.  This year needs to see some of the same type of improvement if the team hopes to compete within the next few years.  With spring training in the very near future of many of these players, I thought now would be a good time to compile a list of prospects for everyone to follow throughout the 2004 season.  I will go through position by position and discuss the top guys at each.

 

First Base:  

1)     Prince Fielder: Several different groups voted Prince as the top minor leaguer in all of the minors, and he won MVP of the Midwest league last summer.  Many regard him as the top prospect in the Brewers’s system, and if he can repeat his prior performance again this coming year I will agree with this assessment.  He will not turn 20 until May and will likely begin this season at AA Huntsville.  Last year in Beloit (A), Prince had a .313 AVG, a .409 OBP, a .526 SLG, 27 HR, 71 BB, and 80 K in 502 at bats.  His weight remains a concern to some, as does his defense.  I think he is fine with the glove, and I don’t think he’d be dumb enough to let himself get as fat as his dad did.  Making the jump to AA this year is my only real concern because that is typically the most difficult and decisive jump of a minor league career.  If he can be successful this next year, expect big things in the future from Prince.

2)     Manny Ramirez:  These people really need to get more original names.  It’s really early to call Manny a prospect because he was only in high rookie ball last year.  He spent last year down there because he had a hard time jumping to high A ball in 2002.  He is 21, and you’d like guys this age to be a bit higher up than rookie ball.  He will start the season in either Beloit or High Desert this next year.  Last year he compiled a .394 OBP, a .578 SLG, 11HR, 23 BB, and 48 K in 218 at bats.   

3)     Brandon Gemoll:  Gemoll is not too much of a prospect, but he has benefited from Prince Fielder forcing all other top first-base prospects to move to another position.  He is 23, and will likely be starting at first in AAA this next year.  Last year in AA Huntsville he had a .344 OBP, a .428 SLG, 11 HR, 50 BB, and 105 K in 456 at bats.

 

Second Base:

1)     Rickie Weeks: Weeks represents the transformation that occurred with 2nd Base from one of the weakest positions in the team’s farm system to perhaps its strongest in 2003.  As the number two overall pick in last year’s draft, Rickie has excellent natural abilities.  Right now, his somewhat sporadic defense is the biggest aspect keeping him from the majors.  He spent last year in Beloit having a .494 OBP, .556 SLG, 15 BB, and 9 K in 63 at bats before being called up in September to the majors.  He is a “five tool player” who should be fun to watch develop this next year, and at age 21 is perhaps the best prospect in the system.

2)     Callix Crabbe: Callix is not too highly regarded by most others, but I love him for his 68/52 BB/K ratio last year in Beloit.  He just turned 21 and should start this next year in High Desert (A+).  His plate approach is excellent, and he has good speed and a solid glove at second.   

3)     Alejandro Machado: Acquired for Curtis Leskanic last year, Machado is regarded as a speedy, good defensive second baseman.  He has had some ups and downs in his 4-year minor league career, and he struggled towards the end of last year in Huntsville.  He will start the season in AAA Indianapolis and will turn 22 soon after.  If he can regain his form from years past, he could potentially make a solid backup infielder for the Crew. 

4)     Rich Paz:  I was pissed to see that Rich wouldn’t be getting much of a chance this next year.  At age 26 and with other guys taking his playing time, I doubt Paz will ever see a Brewers uniform.  He isn’t really a prospect, but I am a huge fan of his 74/55 BB/K ratio between AA and AAA and .351 average at AAA last year.  Of course, he doesn’t have any power, but I think he could be a sparkplug to any lineup some day.

 

Shortstop:

1)      J.J. Hardy: If Weeks or Fielder is not the top prospect in the system, Hardy definitely is.  I’ve always worried about Hardy because it seems that so much of his high ranking is based on defense.  I guess he is great defensively, but I’d much rather have a hitter.  Hardy eased much of this uncertainty by greatly increasing his offensive output at AA last year.  He produced a .368 OBP, a .428 SLG, 12 HR, 58 BB, and 54 K in 416 at bats.  His value is definitely in his brainpower, which should lead to more improvement this next year at AAA.  Hopefully, he will be the starting shortstop for the Crew in 2005.

2)      Gilbert Acosta: Again, this is a really early prospect status given that this 21 year-old is still in rookie ball.  He should start the season in Beloit and is definitely a guy to watch.  He stole 30 bases, got caught only 3 times, and had an .861 OPS in 189 at bats last year.  His status as my second highest rated shortstop is more a sign of the lack of depth at this position that an indication of his skill.

3)      Enrique Cruz:  This is how desperate the team is here.  Actually, Enrique might match up better in AA this year and regain his prospect status.  Man, he just isn’t ready for major league pitching.

4)      Ozzie Chavez:  Ozzie really couldn’t hit at High Desert at all last year.  Given that the entire league is a bunch of Coors Fields, his .594 OPS was just awful.  He will stay there again this next year, but at age 20 and with such good defense he will keep his prospect status for one more year. 

 

Third Base:

1)     Corey Hart:  Again, let’s get original with the names people.  As high of a prospect people as he is, and he did win the Southern League MVP last year at age 21, there are at least three things keeping Hart from being as good as people say.  First, his name needs to go.  Secondly, he has to improve his plate approach.  He has decent power, which should develop as he gets older.  He has drawn many comparisons to Richie Sexson in his early years.  Last year, he compiled a .340 OBP, .467 SLG, 13 HR, 25 SB, 8 CS, 28 BB, and 101 K in 493 at bats.  As you can see, Hart is going to struggle at the major league level until he can start taking pitches.  Walks and home runs go hand in hand.  He needs to establish a better strike zone to get better pitches to hit.  He has natural power, but 28 walks in 500 at bats is not going to cut it.  Lastly, he needs to improve his defense.  He moved to third last year because of Prince Fielder being the first baseman of the future.  He basically failed at third and the organization is likely going to try him in the outfield this coming year.  I doubt he will ever be a good defensive player anywhere but at first base.  Though still highly regarded, I very much doubt Hart’s short-term potential, and I don’t really consider him a third baseman.  

2)     Adam Heether:  Since the organization has no true third base prospects, I’ve included Heether, who isn’t very highly rated by anyone.  Heether was drafted in the 11th round of last year’s draft out of Long Beach St.  He showed a decent approach at the plate in Beloit last summer, but he didn’t show much defense or power hitting.  He is a real long shot.        

 

Catcher:

1)     Lou Palmisano:  If third base isn’t the weakest position for the farm system, catcher certainly is.  Palmisano ranks as one of the few potential MLB players at catcher, but, unfortunately, he is still rather low in the system.  He was the Crew’s third selection in last year’s draft out of a Community College in Florida.  He is said to have excellent raw abilities including mental capacities, but we’ll have to see how he adjusts to higher minor league levels.  Before breaking his ankle last year, Lou had a .458 OBP, .592 SLG, 6 HR, 13 SB, 2 CS, 18 BB, and 29 K in 174 at bats.  He earned MVP honors in high rookie ball Helena, and will likely start this year as a 21 year-old playing in Beloit.   

2)     Kade Johnson:  Johnson was the Brewers’s top catching prospect a couple years back, but has recently seen his stock plummet.  At age 24, last year was not a good one for Kade to be unable to jump to AA ball.  His numbers were really bad at Huntsville.  Let’s just leave it at that.  Somehow, he will be at spring training this year and will likely play at AAA Indianapolis.  Maybe he can regain his form and become the catcher he was supposed to be.  If he does, don’t be surprised to see him by September. 

 

Outfielders:

1)     Brad Nelson:  Before last season, Nelson was the top rated prospect in the Brewers’s system.  That was before he broke his wrist and hit for completely no power in 2003.  He also showed signs of struggling to make the jump to AA.  Like Corey Hart, Nelson was moved from first base to make room for Prince Fielder.  I doubt that anyone as big as Nelson (220lbs.) would ever be a great outfielder.  Of more of a concern is his hitting decline since he left Beloit in mid-2002.  He is still only 21, and that, combined with his power potential from the left side of the plate, makes him the top outfielding prospect for the team.  He will be perhaps the most interesting and important player to watch this next year.  

2)     Dave Krynzel:  Dave is very unrefined at this point and perhaps was moved up to AA too fast.  He is still only 22 and could perhaps use another year of developing at that level.  Everything I’ve read says he is a future deadly leadoff hitter, but his numbers do not indicate this will be happening anytime soon.  He needs to work on his plate approach (60 BB/119 K in 457 at bats), his base running (43 SB/21 CS), and his defense (11 Errors).  He struggled at the end of last year and finished with a .357 OBP and .357 SLG.  He has a high ceiling, but really needs to improve this next year.

3)     Tony Gwynn Jr.:  We haven’t seen much from Tony Jr. yet since he was drafted in the second round last year, but you’d be crazy to not think he was a solid prospect.  He has one of the biggest advantages you can find around: great baseball lineage.  He showed a great approach at the plate in Beloit last year having 33 walks versus 32 strikeouts.  He seems to be a very smart player, but his lack of power might keep him from ever being a superstar.  His dad was awesome, but I’m sure Tony Jr. will never be as white or successful as he was.  He will be 21 and likely play at High Desert this next season.  He could put up solid numbers in the thin air there.

4)     Steve Moss:  Moss is a guy I really like, but he also lacks any power potential.  He does however have an excellent approach to the plate and only recently turned 20.  He also is supposedly an amazing center fielder.  He got hurt last year and missed most of the season.  In 186 at bats in Beloit, he put up a .394 OBP, .382 SLG, 32 BB, and 44 K.  Though he certainly needs refinement, which he likely will receive at Beloit again in 2004, those walk totals are too good to ignore.

5)     Daryl “D.J.” Clark:  Clark is getting a little old (24), and he had trouble adapting to AA last year.  His average was only .233, but you know how little I care about that.  He has a lot of power, but it didn’t shine through at Huntsville.  What did shine through was his patience at the plate.  He walked 40 times, but did strikeout 62 times in 202 at bats.  He has a lot of potential, but he is going to need to put it all together this next year.   

6)     Jason Belcher: Belcher is a former catcher made outfielder due to injuries.  He also isn’t much of a power threat, but he is a very solid contact hitter with a decent plate approach.  At age 21, he had a .370 OBP, a .446 SLG, 5, HR, 26 BB, and 35 K in 350 at bats at High Desert last year.  Being a hitter’s park and league, those numbers might be a bit favorable but there is no questioning Belcher’s ability to make contact with the ball.  Now, if he could draw some more walks and get some more power he’d be a top prospect.  There are rumors that he’ll be moved to fill a void at third or back to catcher at AA this next season.

7)     Drew Anderson:  Taken in the 24th round of last year’s draft, Anderson is not too highly regarded by most in baseball.  He is said to have average speed and not many tools besides a good approach at the plate.  At age 22, he was pretty old to be playing in high rookie ball last year, but we’ll have to see what kind of progress he makes this year.  He had 35 walks and 39 strikeouts in 214 at bats in Helena (R+).  Time to take some pitches in Beloit now.

8)     Terry Trofholz:  Trofholz is a college kid taken in last year’s draft who also started in Helena.  He put up excellent numbers (.394 OBP, .410 SLG, 19 BB, 39 K in 261 AB’s).  With little to no power, Trofholz is going to have a difficult road to the majors.  

9)     Charlie Farmaint:  Farmaint was taken in the 4th round last year, and has little numbers in his name so far.  I guess he is a “natural athlete” and is only 18 years old.  He will likely play in Helena this year, and has a lot of development to do at the plate.

 

Pitchers:

1)     Jorge de la Rosa:  De la Rosa came as a welcome addition in December because the past two years have taken a toll on Brewers pitching prospects.  In 2003, he split time between AA and AAA, but he had much more success in AA.  In AA, he had a 2.81 ERA, 102 K, and 36 BB in 99.2 innings.  Left handed, 22 years old, and likely to be pitching in Indianapolis this year.  You never know about pitchers, but de la Rosa should be decent.

2)     Manny Parra:  Parra played last season in Beloit and looked great.  Despite some late season injuries, he managed to finish with a 2.73 ERA, 9 HR, 24 BB, and 117 K in 138.2 innings of work.  He is 21 and will likely pitch in Huntsville this next year.  He has perhaps the best natural arm of any Brewers prospect.  Let’s keep our fingers crossed that he not only can make the decisive jump to AA but also that he can avoid injury unlike most other pitching prospects.

3)     Ben Hendrickson:  In my opinion, Hendrickson has been really overrated by being part of a generally weak pitching system.  His winning the “Brewers Minor League Pitcher of the Year Award” in 2002 really doesn’t mean much.  He has a devastating curveball, but his numbers do not indicate devastating control or velocity on his other pitches.  People seem pretty excited about him being “a sure thing,” but even those people don’t think he could ever be a top-notch starter.  In Huntsville at age 22 last year, he had a 3.45 ERA with 6 HR allowed, 56 K, and 28 BB in 78.1 innings.  He battled injury problems and doesn’t have as high of a ceiling as you’d like for a top pitching prospect.  He will likely pitch between AA and AAA this year.

4)     Dennis Sarfate:  The first righty to appear, Sarfate pitched well in Beloit at the age of 22 last year.  He had a 2.84 ERA, 11 HR, 140 K, and 66 BB in 139.2 innings.  This coming year will be a challenging step for Dennis who must either master the thin air in High Desert or make the jump to AA.

5)     Mike Jones:  Jones was the top pitching prospect in the system before an elbow injury last year.  He could miss all of this next year, and I am very close to putting his name next to Nugebauer, Gold, and Diggins in the “don’t draft high school pitchers in the first two rounds” book.  He won’t turn 21 until April, and he did post a 2.4 ERA in AA last year before he got hurt, so I’ll give him a break and keep him at number 5. 

6)     Greg Bruso:  Bruso came over in the Eric Young trade last year, but I have heard very little mentioned of his prospect status.  He spent half of last season at the A+ level and compiled a 3.11 ERA with an impressive 77 K and 11 BB in 84 innings there.  In the second half, he posted a 3.48 ERA with 50 K and 17 BB in 86.1 innings of AA ball.  He seems to having great control and could be a solid contributor someday.  Almost at age 24, he needs to make the step to AAA successfully this year.   

7)     Chris Saenz:  Saenz (22) isn’t highly regarded because his numbers took a hit at High Desert last year.  I think we really can’t concern ourselves with his ERA (5.20) or home runs allowed (20 in 128 innings) as much as we should be happy about his strikeout numbers.  Though he did walk 56 guys in those 128 innings at High Desert, he managed to strike out 136.  In fact, he’s had more strikeouts than innings pitched at every level he’s pitched.  Saenz had a solid 6-inning start at Huntsville to close out last year.  He will begin 2004 there and hopefully can get his ERA and HR totals down. 

8)     Pedro Liriano:  Liriano hasn’t panned out the way the organization wanted, but he has done respectably.  In 142.2 innings at Huntsville last year, he racked up a 3.79 ERA, 12 HR, 62 BB, and 116 K.  His lack of stellar numbers and age of 23 keep him from being a top-tier prospect, but I like the fact he is as close as anyone to making it to the big leagues as long as he gets/stays good enough.

9)     Tom Wilhelmsen:  He pitched great at the age of 19 in Beloit last year until a right elbow strain pretty much ended his season.  He finished with a 2.76 ERA, 27 BB, 6 HR, and 63 K in 88 innings.  He’s got a good arm, but a long way to go.  Let’s keep our injury-avoiding-fingers-cross going for another couple years. 

Others: Dana Eveland:  Was used in relief in Helena last year at the age of 19, but his numbers were so good that he turned heads and earned himself a shot to perhaps start in Beloit this next year.  In 26 innings, he compiled a 2.08 ERA, 8 BB, and 41 K.  He really has a long way to go, but we’ll have to keep an eye on him.

Greg Kloosterman, Robbie Wooley, Carlos Ramirez, and Ty Taubenheim: All of these guys are very young and inexperienced, but they all put up good numbers at low levels last year.  One or two should likely stand out this next year.

Others to Watch Less Closely: Ben Diggins, J.M. Gold, Nick Neugebauer…..all three of these guys were either former first or second round picks.  All of them were high school draft picks, and none have been able to avoid injuries.  If any of them sees playing time this summer, it may still be worth keeping an eye on them.

 

Summary:

            While I grant that the farm system has been revitalized, I still question whether it is as reliable as all of us Brewers fans hope.  Consider how good the farm system will need to be for the Crew to win 90 games within the next thee years.  Though prospects like Rickie Weeks and Prince Fielder seem like sure shots, even they have question marks due to their lack of experience.  Every other major prospect has at least one thing about himself that worries me.  What I am saying is that there are no definite successes when it comes to dealing with prospects.  I don’t want to make people think that the revitalization of the farm system is anything less than vital, but I am saying that this is just the first step.

            This next year will be a very important one for the organization’s future success.  Some of these prospects need to rebound, and others need to become more consistent and improve.  Right now, the Brewers do not have enough.  Barring a vast amount of luck yielding unlikely improvement, the team has holes at third base, catching, and definitely pitching.  It lacks depth at key positions in the infield and really has no pitcher likely to be a star.  Injuries have devastated the pitching prospects for the past few years.  There are two solutions: Get more quality pitchers into the system or draft and develop better. 

            With this in mind, there are three things to look and cheer for next year.  First, Doug Melvin needs to continue to be patient with calling up prospects, which he has shown to be thus far.  Secondly, the organization needs to work as many trades as it can to move incumbents to free the way for rookies and add depth to the minor league system.  And lastly, the team needs to draft well.  Melvin did a great job not taking a high school pitcher until the 6th round last year.  That is good, but it isn’t good enough; nor do I think it represents a strategy of his to avoid high school pitchers.  There is so much evidence out there to avoid these pitchers, such as the slap in the face example of Neugebauer, Gold, Jones, and Diggins, that I can’t believe GMs still draft these guys so early.  The draft will be a subject of a later article, of course written closer to draft time.

            All in all, I think Brewers fans have a reason to be happy.  I caution not to get too excited about these prospects until they prove themselves at the major league level.  From the time pitchers report to spring training on, I will be following the progress of these prospects.  I recommend all my fellow Brewers fans do the same this year because, after all, this is the only hope the Crew has.