Fantasy Baseball 2004

Position Players

Fantasy baseball season has officially started, and I hope you’ve all signed up for your teams. Due to the size of the position player field, I will not go through and rank all these guys. Instead, I will just rank out the depth of each position, point out some sleeper picks, and design a solid overall draft strategy.

Let’s take a look at each position….

First Base:

First base is a position with a number of different groups of about three players apiece. From the top group, Pujols, Helton, and Delgado, to the second group, Giambi, Sexson, and Thome, there is a pretty sizable decline in production. There are also a number of other solid first-basemen, but none that would put up numbers like the top group. First base might be the deepest position in terms of adequate production from players, but such should be expected from an offensive position. This would be a good position from which to draft two top-notch players and play one at DH. This will be possible because there are a few good sleeper picks here….Mike Sweeney was injured last year, but he is a really good hitter. Ranked 18^th on yahoo’s first-basemen list, he should fall very far in drafts. Being in the middle of a good Kansas City lineup could make him very valuable this year…..Adam Dunn was also injured, but he is also a very good hitter. He has been plagued by low batting averages due to strikeouts, but he has a ton of power and should fall far in drafts. He also could serve as an outfielder, and I expect his average to rise this year…..Ryan Klesko had a bad year last year, but its worth taking a chance on him improving batting in the middle of a much improved Padre lineup. At the 26^th ranking on yahoo for 1B, he should fall pretty low, but he will have some interest from other people.….Paul Konerko should go undrafted and could be a decent sleeper if he rebounds…..Nick Johnson is also a very good hitter who will get full playing time this year.

In terms of a draft strategy, it will likely cost you a first-round pick to get any of the top three guys. Giambi and others in the second group could fall quite a bit lower and could be really good picks. If you miss the top group of guys, be patient since there are many solid first-basemen out there.

Second Base:

Second base is a position with a one big name guy and then a big group of interchangeable players. The gap between the production of Soriano and the next level of guys is perhaps overstated in that Soriano will go in the first round and others will last a good bit later. Remember though, Soriano is going to a much better hitter’s park, and he could get duel position status as a shortstop. He does, however, lose the comforts of the Yankee lineup, but he’s still got a couple good hitters left around him. The usual draft strategy with a group like this is to either take the top guy if the pick is right or wait about 6 rounds and take one of the last of the next best group. Second base actually has very little depth and perhaps the least chance of multiple guys having breakout seasons, so it may be wise to jump a little early at some of these guys. Brett Boone, Jeff Kent, Marcus Giles, and Jose Vidro are all pretty much interchangeable. Certainly there is some difference between these guys, but they will fall later as they get less productive. After this, Luis Castillo would be decent, or maybe even Michael Young, Mark Loretta, Adam Kennedy, Orlando Hudson, or even Junior Spivey. I’d much rather have a guy from the previous group, but remember that the difference between Jeff Kent and Mark Loretta will not be nearly as much as the difference between Jason Giambi and some other first-baseman.

Shortstop:

Okay, draft Rodriguez if you get a chance. Good lord, he can even play as a third-baseman this year. If you don’t, target Garciaparra, Renteria, Tejada, Jeter, Cabrera, Furcal, or maybe even Berroa, probably in that order. If these guys don’t come through, think about taking a flyer on Matsui. If this doesn’t work out, there is a chance you might have to have a white guy starting at short, and you don’t want that. Though it usually is a fallout plan, do not draft the Colorado shortstop this year! There is a good amount of depth near the top, but do remember that there is very minimal difference from Garciaparra to Furcal. Like second-basemen, if you miss the top guy, wait a while to take a shot at a SS.

Third Base:

This is a deep position with little differentiation near the top and a few really good underrated players. I’d avoid drafting the top-ranked guys; Rolen, Chavez, Lowell, Glaus, or Ramirez in the early rounds. If they fell to you, it might be worth going after Chavez or Glaus because they should be good this year and are generally underrated or properly rated. There are a number of other guys that aren’t as good as their ranking. Hopefully, people will pick these guys and leave others for the taking. I think Dmitri Young should have a solid year again, but he is ranked too high. Hank Blalock, who could be the best third-basemen out there, is ranked tenth. Corey Koskie, if he can stay healthy, and that’s a big if, could be top 5 potential at third, Morgan Ensberg is a really good hitter who will finally get a full load of games to play. Eric Hinske is in much better shape this year and could be a force in the Blue Jays lineup. If some of those doubles he hit last year could have carried a little further, he’d be much higher ranked. He is a good hitter too. Mark Teixeira could put up bigger and better things with his gained experience. Miguel Cabrera showed that he had some talent when those wonderful Marlins made their run last year. Even Vinny Castilla, who is in Colorado now, could put up top five numbers at third base. All of these guys mean that third base might be a position to pass up in early rounds. You will certainly get one of these guys, and remember to draft Ty Wigginton and play him against the Brewers.

Catcher:

As always, catcher is the weakest position in the draft. The top four guys, Posada, Piazza, Rodriguez, and Lopez usually put up much better numbers than the guys lower down. However, you have to be really careful given that any of these guys could get injured at any time or just have an off year. They are all really risky picks because none will last too late in drafts. Pudge’s numbers probably do not warrant such a high pick. Varitek, Kendall, Lieberthal, or Pierzynski, (a.k.a. the white guys) all make solid picks. Ramon Hernandez would be an average guy to have. Jason Phillips is a very good sleeper pick, partially because he might not play much catcher. Also, keep an eye on the catcher situation in Minnesota. Joe Mauer has a lot of potential, but he probably won’t make a great fantasy player this year. If he isn’t playing much, Matthew Lecroy will be getting playing time. Lecroy will also DH against lefties. He is a much better hitter than other catchers and could be a good guy to platoon into your lineup on days he will likely play. Again, depending on how risk evasive you are, consider Phillips, Varitek, Pierzynski, Lieberthal, and Kendall as the guys to target the most. I feel like I should mention Adam Melhuse, but he’s not listed on yahoo yet.

Outfielders:

This is a good position to draft a lot of guys for your team. About half of the teams use an OF as a DH, and the depth in the outfield this year should move that number even higher. There are a lot of good players and a number of good sleeper picks this year. I’ll just point out some guys that have too low of ratings due to last year.

Lance Berkman is a guy who I’m going to draft in all my leagues; Brian Giles finally has a lineup around him, same with Phil Nevin and Ryan Klesko; Juan Gonzalez might have one year left in him; Geoff Jenkins can be deadly when healthy, especially when you only start him when he is good-streakin’; Matsui is going to have a ton of guys on base for him again this year and could hit more like he did in Japan; Adam Dunn, Austin Kearns, and Corey Patterson are back from shortened seasons; and J.D. Drew could be really large in Atlanta if he finally can play for a full year.

All of these guys mean sleeper picks in later rounds. All have a lot of potential and might be worth throwing some late-round picks at. Of course, the guys at the top of the list also have a lot of potential and usually are much more productive that even the best sleeper picks. A good strategy would be to get Berkman, Giles, and three of these other sleepers much later than they all should have gone. If you can get Pujols, do that too. Well, that’s my strategy.

As everyone is drafting during the next couple months, feel free to ask my opinion on any players or have me look up Baseball Prospectus’s projected output (PECOTA Weighted Mean Forecasts) for any of these guys.