Fantasy Baseball 2004

Preseason Analysis

Relief Pitchers

 

Overview:

Relief pitchers tend to put up the most easily substituted numbers in fantasy baseball of any position.  Most fantasy players don’t take a reliever unless he is a closer or part-time closer.  Since a good starting pitcher might throw four times more innings than a closer and three times more than a setup man, it makes sense why so little attention is paid to any number besides saves.  There are two competing ways to view relievers’ numbers.  Either saves are the only thing that matters, or all of a pitcher’s numbers matter. 

The argument I pose, in an attempt to maximize draft results, is that saves are very important but easily replaced by someone else.  At the same time, a reliever’s ERA, WHIP, wins, and strikeouts also do matter significantly (especially in a head-to-head league).  However, one thing that haunts the analysis of these players is the fluctuations in all of these statistics due to the lower amount of innings pitched per year compared to starters.  Relievers’ core statistics are incredibly affected by luck and save totals are more the product of one’s team than anything else.

Last year saw particular turnover at the closer role as numerous closers were either traded or replaced.  It was quite conceivable to have not drafted a closer and still led the league in saves.  The greatest advantage of being active in the free agent market is the ability to scrap together save totals.  Every year there seems to be more closer turnover, and with heated divisional races I would expect this year to be no different.

            Due to the high turnover, substitutability, and unpredictability of core numbers, drafting a closer early is silly.  I see only two guys that I’d describe as sure shots that I could imagine picking in the first 5 rounds, Gagne and Wagner.  After those two, there are a bunch of very good closers that have had some injury issues the past few years.  Following them are the group of unproven closers and closers with high ERA’s.  A good draft would yield three or four full-time closers with decent core numbers but won’t sacrifice starting pitchers or position players, and good team management will yield the rest of the needed saves.  The only way this is possible is to find the right pitchers to take.  Managing this area truly separates the winners from the losers.

            I will lay out all of the slated closers to start the year and their pluses and minuses.  I will also have some valuable insight into how to maximize all output from the bullpen including ERA, WHIP, wins, and strikeouts.         

 

Player Ratings:

**Players are ordered mostly in the positions they are likely to fall.  Though I have made some picks about where guys are likely to fall, it will al depend upon the other people in the league.  Typically, when closer is taken, it sets out a wave of other closers to be taken.  If there is a guy you want and most of the players ranked ahead of him have been taken, you may need to jump up a round to get him**

 

Closers:

 

Eric Gagne: Gagne has the best stuff in the league, so his 1.20 ERA and stupid-good K/IP ratio from last year are no fluke.  Will he get 55 saves again?  I have no idea.  There is a better than average chance he doesn’t lead the NL in saves this year.  He will have awesome numbers, without many wins, and a good amount of saves, but he will only throw 80 innings if he stays healthy.  Though his numbers will help, they only comprise 6.5% of your innings cap.  Considering that a nearly equal amount of saves can be picked up in the sixth round, I would not recommend drafting Gagne.  He will likely go in the first or second round, and I wouldn’t consider taking him any sooner than the third or fourth.

 

Billy Wagner: I don’t see the change to the Phillies affecting him too much.  If I had to choose, I’d think Wagner will lead the league in saves, but that is really just a guess.  Like Gagne, Wagner will put up great numbers with the exception of wins and throw 80 innings if he stays healthy.  He will fall lower in the draft because of less hype than Gagne, but he is just as valuable.  That being said, I wouldn’t take him any sooner than the fourth or fifth round and he likely won’t be available then.

 

John Smoltz: Like Gagne and Wagner, Smoltz could lead the league in saves this year and put up awesome numbers.  His numbers were just as good, or even better than, the other two last year until he got hurt.  Those injury questions along with another year to his age make Smoltz highly risky this year.  He could be the top closer in the league or a complete waste of a top draft pick.  Though I personally think he will rebound all right, I wouldn’t count on that enough to draft him as high as he likely will go.  Stay tuned to his status as the season approaches.

 

Mariano Rivera: Rivera will most likely be the safest pick at closer in the AL.  He doesn’t notch as many strikeouts as the previously mentioned guys, but his ERA is comparable.  Even though the Yanks have plenty of good setup men and are always trying to improve, Rivera will not lose his closer role.  Expect a lot of saves and good numbers.  I would suspect him to be taken as the third closer in most drafts, which usually means third round.  Only take him if he lasts a couple rounds later.

 

Keith Foulke: Foulke was my sleeper closer last year, but this year is much more hyped.  With 9 wins and 43 saves last year, he isn’t going to be ignored.  He is still on a good team, and, since the Sox will likely use him in more unconventional ways, he should rack up a good amount of wins.  However, I am skeptical of Foulke’s outlook for 2004 because of the switch to the Red Sox.  I almost never disagree with numbers, but I think Foulke’s ERA being lower on the road last year was a fluke.  Leaving the spacious field in Oakland for a fly-ball pitcher like Foulke could be a problem.  Given the nature of Boston, if Foulke falters early, he could fall apart a bit like he did in Chicago or be replaced by someone new.  I’d be careful drafting Foulke as early as his numbers might lead one to do, but he still is a good pick if he falls a bit.

 

Octavio Dotel: Though he has no experience at the position, our Astros are giving Dotel the job now that Wagner is gone.  Probably all of us have seen him pitch, so we know he has really good stuff.  I see no reason why he wouldn’t rack up saves all year unless the team realizes he’d be move valuable in a setup role.  If this happens, which it probably won’t, Brad Lidge would most likely step up.  A similar situation last year was shown by the Giants, who chose Tim Worrell to close instead of Felix Rodriguez even though Rodriguez was a better pitcher.  While I am confident in Dotel’s abilities and huge upside to drafting him, there is a small risk that he’ll be replaced.  In less competitive leagues, Dotel might slip to a spot where he is worth taking.

 

Trevor Hoffman: Hoffman is my highest rated of the nest group of closers; “the injured last year gang.”  He is on a much improved team, and, though he has a couple of solid closers as setup men, has never been in the midst of a closer controversy.  The Padres will be very patient before replacing him, so even if he sucks he’ll rack up some saves.  Hoffman and the next four guys I mention should all fall around the fifth round.  Drafting any sooner than the sixth is likely a mistake unless you are in one of those crazy leagues where closers are taken like acid at a Radiohead concert.

 

Troy Percival: I’m cheating a bit by having Percival in this group because he wasn’t injured much last year.  He is very similar to Hoffman in terms of the characteristics of the team for which he plays; good setup guys who could close, improved team, and no closer controversy.  Even though injuries aren’t much of a deal for him, I’ve dropped him down because of a serious decline in the strikeout and walk ratios.  He had a BB/IP ratio above .4 last year, and his ERA reflected it at 3.47.  Though he probably will have a good year, I doubt he can put up the kind of core numbers seen by other closers.  Then again, maybe last year was a fluke.  Either way, I wouldn’t take him sooner than the sixth round.

 

Jason Isringhausen: Though I am frightened of drafting anyone in Tony LaRussa’s bullpen, Isringhausen is a very good closer.  He has settled into a 2.50 area ERA and should get around 40 save chances in St. Louis.  I don’t think last years injury should bother him much since he pitched well the second half last year.  A solid draft pick who should be consistently solid.  Again, Isringhausen is a guy that is likely to fall a bit in drafts.

 

Robb Nen: I’d have him in the top five if it weren’t for last year’s injury.  He should be ready for spring training but keep an eye on him if you want to draft him.  The only thing to say is that he could be a great steal if he stays healthy because a lot of people are going to skip him.  Again, don’t draft him too early, and if you’re risk aversive, don’t draft him at all because we have no clue how he’s going to rebound.

 

Matt Mantei: Mantei has been highly ranked on everything I’ve seen.  He has great stuff and a lot of potential.  However, I am not a fan of the fact that he is an injury factory.  He seriously takes component parts and manufactures injuries.  Though he could have a killer season, I’d look elsewhere if all the previously mentioned guys have been taken in the round you want a closer.

 

**Special Note: When drafting some of these guys, remember that they will be ranked low because of last year’s numbers.  Many amateur players will completely forget to look for these guys, and players not at the draft typically just draft off the top ranked available players.  Don’t count on this in competitive leagues.**

 

Joe Borowski: Though he had a solid season last year, he has nothing besides that to prove this year will be good.  At to that the fact that he’s got some pretty good setup men behind him who’ll replace him very fast if he struggles.  Also, remember the Dusty Baker factor.  The Cubs win most games 2-1 meaning that the starting pitcher will get a complete game.  The Cubs should lead the league in complete games meaning less saves for Borowski.  Unlike most of the other closers, it won’t be bad luck that reduces his save opportunities.  He was the closer all of last year and only had 37 save chances for a playoff team.  He will likely be overrated by Cubs fans in your league, so don’t worry about drafting him.

 

Arthur Rhodes: Everyone is questioning Billy Beane’s move of putting of using Rhodes as the closer.  This criticism makes sense given Rhodes not being a great pitcher last year, right?  Look at his numbers if you have the time.  I know a lot of you know about Billy Beane, so it won’t be odd when I say Rhodes was the victim of bad luck last year.  His K and BB numbers went down a bit, but not enough to warrant such a significant hike in ERA.  These could represent a trend, but it also might be a fluke and Rhodes could be as good as he was in 2001 and 2002.  Now, I’m not saying that Rhodes is going to be a great closer, but I am saying he is underrated.  Beane is not going to breakup his setup combo of Bradford and Rincon, so I don’t see Rhodes as having too much competition.  It’ll take some pretty bad pitching from Rhodes to lose his position.  I also believe in the ability of Rick Peterson, the A’s pitching coach, to straighten out a pitcher.  I don’t know if he even needs to turn things around because a 4 ERA likely won’t get him demoted.  Though he is still risky, I think Rhodes could fall down to a lower round where he’d be a good pick.  He could fall as low as the seventh or eighth round where I’d be willing to pick him.

 

Eddie Guardado: Steady Eddie has been very steady the past few years as a closer.  It is official for now that he’ll be closing games this year as Kaz Sasaki is back in Japan.  Even though Eddie is not the typical closer, I’m pretty comfortable with him.  His numbers will be solid, but certainly not amazing.  He should get a good amount of save opportunities in Seattle as well.  The only problem I see is if the Mariners decide to put someone else in as closer.  This move would come partially because they may need a lefty setup guy.  That being said, they signed him to a pretty big contract, which will provide incentive to keep him as closer.  He’s a pretty solid pick if he lasts until the eighth round or so.

 

Armando Benitez: Benitez really isn’t a great pitcher.  A lot of people are going to want the closer of last year’s World Series champions, so his position is overrated.  He blew 8 saves in 34 chances last year because he walked 41 guys in 73 innings.  On a side note, remember how quick Braden Looper was replaced last year even though he was doing an adequate job?  His control is not very good, and he’s likely to fall much sooner than he should in most drafts.

 

Braden Looper: As I mentioned above, Looper did an adequate job last year in Florida, but he certainly wasn’t great.  He really doesn’t have great stuff.  Unlike most other closers, he doesn’t get too many strikeouts; 56 in 80.2 innings last year.  Add to this lack of dominating stuff the fact that he plays on the Mets now.  If he does do well, he will be on the trading block really fast to a team like the Red Sox who won’t use him to close.  I’m assuming the Mets will not contend, and I’m assuming it’ll continue its trend of having fire sale in July.  All in all, Looper is a bit overrated.

 

Joe Nathan: Nathan is taking over as the Twins closer this year, and I think he’ll do a descent job.  He had a great season last year, which included 33BB and 83K in 79 innings of work.  I’m not too concerned by the fact that this was the only good year he’s ever had in his short career.  He has no experience at closing, but the Twins is typically a closer friendly fantasy team.  Eddie Guardado has shown that any old fat slob can save 40 games a year for the Twins.  Nathan also won’t get traded at the deadline, nor do I see the Twins going out and signing someone to replace him then.  Since Nathan could slip into low risk rounds, he is a guy that definitely could be a steal.

 

 Jorge Julio: The pressure has been turned up in Baltimore, and I don’t think Julio is going to get away with the pitching he’s given the past couple seasons.  He is one of few closers that have been in the closer position with the same team for the past two years, so that helps his stock out a little bit.  However, Baltimore is expecting to win much more this year and it isn’t going to stand for blown saves 20% of the time.  Julio was given a shot because of his electric arm and youth, but don’t be shocked if he is taken down this year in place of Mike DeJean.  Then again, maybe he’ll turn everything around and be the dominating pitcher he was supposed to be 3 years ago.  Such a turnaround is a risky bet for someone likely to fall a little too early in drafts.  People will be high on Julio thinking the off-season acquisitions will add win and thus add to his value, but I think the off-season moves will actually hurt him.

 

Francisco Cordero: Cordero stepped up last year and earned the shot he’s getting this year in Texas.  Though he won’t get a ton of save opportunities in Texas, but he should be okay when he does.  The job is his to lose, and, unless Jeff Zimmerman comes back healthy or Jeff Nelson does something extraordinary, I don’t see anyone else joining him at closer.  Like every other year though, there is the possibility that this Ranger’s closer will be traded at the deadline.  All in all, he is a pretty good pick who should fall pretty far.

 

Dan Kolb: Kolb was excellent at the end of last year, Doug Melvin loves him, and no one is going to take the job from him.  He would have to pitch incredibly terrible to lose his job.  He should get a decent amount of saves and puts up very solid other numbers.  His 1.96 ERA might have been a little lucky last year, but he has a very good arm, so his ERA shouldn’t move up too much.  Kolb is a good, underrated pick even though there is the chance he gets traded in late July.  Since you all are Brewers fans here, you’ll be able to pick up the guy who fills in for him if he does get traded, which he probably won’t.

 

Mike MacDougal: He was quite shaky closing last year for the Royals and actually lost his job towards the end of the year.  He was all over the place last year.  He throws hard with good movement, but sometimes that movement is his worst enemy.  The Royals should be a pretty solid team, and that means; 1) MacDougal will have a good amount of save chances, and 2) The Royals will not put up with too many blown saves.  Though he hasn’t gotten much negative press, don’t be surprised if MacDougal loses his job early in the year to someone like Jeremy Affeldt.  He’s still not a bad pick in a late round, but try to take someone like Kolb sooner than MacDougal.

 

Danny Graves: Graves is my “steal of the draft” closer this year.  I know you’re thinking, “Danny Graves?  The Reds?  He and the team suck!”  Though Graves had a really bad year last year at starting pitcher and wasn’t really great as a closer before then, I am counting on a rebound this year.  Okay, I’ll be honest.  I don’t think Graves’ numbers are going to be great.  The entire reason why I am so high on him is the fact that he’ll double as a starting pitcher.  With Graves, you can have 6 closers in your lineup, or you can have 5 and a top setup guy with great numbers.  Top setup guys are great players to have, but usually they come at the expense of playing a closer every day.  I will touch on this subject more when I discuss some setup guys to consider.  You all definitely want Graves on your team because there is no risk really.  You may also want Ryan Wagner in your bullpen because he’d take over for Graves and would put up good numbers.

 

Danys Baez: Baez will be one of the last closers taken in the draft, so he’s worth targeting.  He isn’t great, but he’s also not too bad.  He’s got a little competition behind him, but as the season starts he’ll be the guy in Tampa.  There is a good chance he’s traded or loses his job, but he is still a good pick in the late round to which he will fall.

 

Shawn Chacon: Most people don’t like Colorado closers, so he should fall very late.  He was injured last year and there really is no telling how he’ll be this year.  If he goes down or sucks, Brian Fuentes will be ready to step into his shoes.  You know my feelings; it’s worth giving him a shot because he is low risk.  Most importantly, he will qualify as a starting pitcher. If he is really killing you, you can drop him and pick up Fuentes. All in all, I'd definitely aim for drafting Chacon.

 

Billy Koch: Koch was god-awful last year.  For some reason, the Sox still are giving him another chance.  He has potential, but God was he bad last year.  Still, he is worth a pick for the same reasons as Chacon.  Damaso Marte will be quite ready to take his spot if he screws up or is traded.  Since you all will have Danny Graves on your team, you will already have Marte as a reliever.  Okay, maybe not.  If he was available though and you saw Koch struggling, it’d be smart to pick him up.  Again, low risk pick with Koch who could turn out great.  The later rounds are the times to take risks.  Okay, we may need to scratch all this because the Sox are signing some Japanese guy.  He likely will be their closer.  Okay, I’m getting word now that Shingo Takatsu is his name.  Check to see who’s announced before your draft.

 

Chad Cordero: Cordero could be a great pick in this draft.  The “could be” aspect relates to the fact that there can’t be any bullpen by committee in Montreal/San Juan if Cordero is going to be very valuable.  All signs point to Cordero winning the closer spot, but you all need to keep an eye on this sooner to the start of the season.  We all saw how long the Spo’s stuck with Rocky Biddle last year.  What is so great about Cordero is that he won’t be traded if he is really good.  Since most of you probably don’t know, Cordero was the Expos’ number one pick last year.  He is a college pitcher with a solid arm who the team wants to make the closer of the future.  He had 12K, 3BB, and a 1.64 ERA in 11 innings last year.  He will be a good pick even if there is a bullpen by committee and a great pick if he wins the full time job.  There is a chance that the Expos will sign Ugueth Urbina, so keep an eye out on the closer situation in Montreal before your draft.

 

Bob Wickman: Wicky was always a pretty solid closer.  His injury last year is going to make him fall way too far in drafts this year.  Assuming he can hold the job through spring training, he is the guy in Cleveland.  If he screws up, David Riske, who is another candidate as a full time reliever for your team, would probably take his spot and be quite valuable.  The Indians play a lot of games against the AL Central early in the year, so Wickman would rack up a nice amount of saves in April and May.  Assuming he holds the job (make sure before drafting him), he is a very good pick.

 

Toronto Closer/Justin Speire; I thin Speire is the most likely candidate to close in Toronto though I wouldn’t be surprised by a bullpen by committee.  If Speire does win the job outright, expect good things from him.  Even pitching in Colorado last year, he had 23BB, 66K, and a 4.05 ERA in 73.1 innings last year.  That should translate to a mid-3’s ERA and a secured spot as Blue Jays closer.  Since the Jays will win a lot this year, Speire could be a huge steal late in drafts.

 

Pittsburgh Closer: I really have no idea who is going to close for this team.  Ugueth Urbina may end up on the Pirates, which of course would make him a decent fantasy pick, but only time will tell who is the teams full time closer.  Of course, it could do the dreaded bullpen by committee, but I get the feeling that the Pirates are going to stick with one guy.  If it doesn’t sign Urbina, Salomon Torres should be the closer.  If not, expect Juan Acevedo or someone else.  Follow the reports later in the off-season to see who steps up, and pick the guy in the draft in the late rounds.

 

Detroit Closer: Surprise everyone! I have the Tigers’ closer as the last ranked in the league.  It is really funny.  The Tigers have 8 guys in the bullpen who would all be no better, and no worse, than each other at closer.  The Tigers could conceivable go by an 8-man closer by committee.  I think I have drafted the Detroit closer for each of the past three years in the later rounds, and I have never been too happy.  I guess the full-time job is Fernando Rodney’s to lose.  He is an exact clone of the past two closers, Matt Anderson and Franklyn German, who each failed me miserably.  He throws extremely hard and has little to no control.  He was great in winter ball I guess, so maybe he has figured out how to pitch a baseball rather than just throw it.  Follow him in spring training and, if you are desperate, pick the Detroit closer. Ughhhhhh.   

 

Draft Strategy:

 

I have tried my best so far to explain to everyone an effective strategy for drafting relievers.  It seems obvious, but some people don’t seem to realize that they have to maximize the value of their picks.  The greatest factor that goes into maximizing each draft pick is the existence of a substitute player.  If a player can be substituted by someone else at a later point, that player is not as valuable.  Though it is true that no reliever that is drafted in the sixth round will likely substitute for Eric Gagne, I will demonstrate how much more a value you can add to your team by drafting closers later on.  Here is an example from my Champion Brew City Broken Bats Team from last year:

Closers drafted: Armando Benitez (7th round), Kalvim Escobar (10th round), Antonio Alfonseca (14th round), Scott Williamson (17th round), and Matt Anderson (19th round).  Alright, so I did a pretty bad job right?  And you shouldn’t pay any attention to my strategy of drafting, right?  Wrong folks.  I led the league in saves.  I didn’t just lead the league, a competitive one, in saves, I won the saves category by 45 saves.  I had 141 at season’s end while the closest guy behind me had 96.  That guy behind me spent two of his first four picks on Eric Gagne and Billy Koch, while I took Manny Ramirez and Ivan Rodriguez.  I never traded for a closer; I actually traded Benitez away because I sensed he’d be traded.  I got almost all of my saves from the free agent markets.  In my winners’ league, I did not have the same success mostly because I was only able to draft one closer, Mike DeJean.  I did put up a late surge and pick up a couple points, but your draft strategy cannot be one where you completely ignore closers.  I made that experimental mistake, which turned out to not be a too huge of one, so we can all learn from it.  I still think drafting no closers is better than drafting too many early.

Hopefully I’ve made my case clear as to why to target the middle-level closers in the later rounds, but I will elaborate some more.  If you ran a team on Yahoo last year, you all should check your teams before Yahoo resets them in early to mid February.  Just go to the fantasy baseball page and your teams will still be there.  I bet you will notice that the league winner did not draft too many early closers.  The guy who won my winners’ league didn’t pick a closer until the 10th round.  In my two private, semi-competitive leagues, both of which I won, I didn’t draft a closer until the 10th and 11th rounds respectively.  I’m sure most of you will have at least somewhat similar stories from your leagues.

 

Valuable Non-Closers:

 

One of the best ways to maximize pitching output is to effectively use setup men as I said with my Danny Graves analysis.  Here’s an illustration of what Graves can do:

 

-We’ll take Graves’ numbers from his last full season as a closer; 32 saves, 6 wins, 4.15 ERA,1.26 WHIP, and 49 K in 80 innings.  Having Graves frees up a roster spot for a sixth closer or a top setup guy.  With the extra spot last year, I would have taken Octavio Dotel, so let’s add his numbers to the equation: 6 wins, 4 saves, 97 K, 2.48 ERA, and a 0.97 WHIP in 87 innings.  So, all in all you’d have 36 saves, 12 wins, about a 3.1 ERA, about a 1.1 WHIP, and 146 K in 167 innings.

 

These numbers are mighty good and very attainable.  By having Dotel, you are taking away from some innings to other players, assuming you reach your innings cap, but those innings would have been taken by your worst starting pitcher who often hurts the team more than he helps.  Sure, Graves might not have a season like 2001, even though that year wasn’t all that great for him.  However, if he can give you saves as he should, you can get some mighty good numbers from some very low picks.  This is what wins you the league.  Picking a guy like Graves, who can play at starting pitcher, either during or after the draft is the hard part.  The easiest part is finding a guy like Dotel.  Setup guys as he was last year almost never get taken.  By the end of the draft, there almost uncertainly are a group of relievers whose ERA projects to be around or below 2.  These guys also give you extremely good output per inning, which isn’t typically gained from any of your starters.  Just as I have said a closer that can play at SP is valuable, a top setup guy who can play there is also valuable but harder to find.  A good reference here is Rafael Soriano from last year.  Here is my list of valuable setup guys:

 

Rafael Soriano: A few of us got to enjoy Soriano’s 1.53 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, and 11.55 K/9 last year.  The best part is that he was in my lineup almost every night, and I still had 5 closers playing.  Don’t expect Soriano to go undrafted this year as there is a good chance that he’ll be starting for the Mariners.  He is still a sleeper pick for a starting pitcher, but a lot more people know about him now.  If he’s announced as a starter closer to the year, he’ll be drafted probably around the 10th round.  If he’s still in relief, grab him when he falls to the 15th round or so.

 

Jeremy Affeldt: I’m mentioning him because he is also a RP/SP.  Unlike Soriano, there is a good chance that Affeldt will turn into the closer for his team.  Even though Affeldt has a great arm, he isn’t going to produce the same kind of numbers as Soriano.  Unless something changes before the season starts, such as MacDougal going down in Kansas City, don’t draft but do keep an eye on Affeldt.

 

David Riske: There is quite a good chance that Bob Wickman’s arm may not be what it was before his injury and Riske would take over as closer of the Indians.  This may be announced before your draft.  If it is, treat him like you’d treat a guy like Dan Kolb.  Riske is a very good pitcher who not only has a good chance of picking up saves as the year goes along but also a good chance of giving your team solid numbers.  He is a good candidate for reliever.

 

Since this is getting very long, I’m just going to rank some more players and be done.  I am valuing these guys based on their likely ERA, WHIP, and strikeouts.  Also, I am analyzing their chances of becoming the teams’ full-time or part-time closer as the season evolves.  I also highly value the top setup guys who get the ball all the time in tight situations late in games and therefore get the most wins.  LaTroy Hawkins got the ball in every tight game for the Twins last year and got 9 wins because of it.

 

1)      Brad Lidge

2)      Jose Valverde

3)      Guillermo Mota

4)      Ryan Wagner

5)      Felix Rodriguez

6)      LaTroy Hawkins/Kyle Farnsworth

7)      Damaso Marte

8)      Shigetoshi Hasegawa

9)      Tim Worrell

10)   Frankie Rodriguez/Brendan Donnelly

11)  Tom Gordon

12)   Rod Beck

13)   Brian Fuentes

14)   Scott Williamson

15)   Juan Rincon/Grant Balfour

16)   Mike DeJean

17)   Luis Ayala

18)   Chad Bradford

19)   Will Cunnane

20)   Aqualung Lopez

21)   Jeff Zimmerman

 

This list is pretty representative of how I’d rank these guys, but not exact.  Research and choose for yourself as most will be available in the last round of drafts.  The dualistic guys above are guys who share main setup duties.  Pick one of the top guys but keep an eye on all of these lower guys as the season progresses. 

 

**With this wealth of information, hopefully we can all win our leagues this year**