Fantasy Baseball 2004
Preseason Analysis
Starting Pitchers
Overview:
Since
a lot of you ask me my advice of fantasy baseball, I thought it would be good
for myself and other fantasy players if I accumulated my thoughts and findings
before the season began. By doing so, I
hope to learn from my prediction mistakes for next year’s draft and provide
some well contemplated insight into draft strategies for everyone this
year. Although I have put a lot of
thought and research into this analysis, by no means are my predictions
foolproof. However, after looking at
some fantasy baseball rankings on various websites, I have no doubt that my
predictions have a better chance of being more accurate than those of many
“experts.” That being said, I’m sure
some of my predictions will bomb, so please no one get too pissed at me. Hindsight is always 20/20.
In my opinion, starting pitchers are the most difficult position to predict, thus the most difficult to draft, in fantasy baseball. Looking at this year’s players leads me to believe this will be an especially difficult crop of pitchers to predict. The reason pitchers are so unpredictable is the fact that they are quite prone to injury and bad luck. Whereas a hitter would play 160 games if he stayed healthy, a starting pitcher will only play 35. Over the course of a year, luck is far more likely to even out over 160 games than it is over 35 games. Too many people ignore this fact. I doubt that too many people who took Randy Johnson with the first overall pick last year won their leagues. In addition, people often overlook the fact that pitchers’ fantasy value, just like hitters, is at the mercy of their teammates. You will hear people say, “Todd Walker is going to have a down year because he’s got no bats around him” way sooner than you’ll hear, “Bartolo Colon is going to have a great season because he’s got a great defense, solid run support, and an awesome bullpen behind him.”
Considering
how difficult it is to predict pitchers, I try to find the most logical and
sure successes I can when drafting. The
first thing I look at is the pitcher’s numbers from the past few years. I think too many analysts see “trends” in
numbers and work off of them. Although
trends often are an indication of decline or rise, trends can be very
misleading. Since there is so much luck
that goes into a pitcher’s numbers, it is important to focus on a longer time
frame and more luck-proof numbers such as walks and strikeouts than wins and
ERA. However, trends can be particularly
useful if associated with a correlating factor, such as an age above 40, that
likely will affect the pitcher again in the next year. I believe that Kevin Brown is due for a slip
sooner than I buy into the talk that Barry Zito will be bad next year. After looking at the general numbers, I look
into the player’s current team, his age and injury background, the ballpark in
which he plays, and the difficulty of the lineups he will likely face.
Draft Strategy:
Because of the uncertainty with starting pitchers, I would recommend shying away from picking them in the first round. When I look at the pitching crop, I see about 10 guys that warrant going in the first few rounds. However, about half of them are extremely risky based on being unproven, old, or injury prone. After these first few, is a small group that warrants a fourth or fifth round pick. If you don’t take a pitcher in the early rounds, these guys certainly would be definite targets. After this group, I see a whole group of guys that are interchangeable. There are a few dozen guys that I can see having a high 3’s or low 4’s ERA. Some of these guys could probably be taken all the way until the end of the draft.
Again, because of the uncertainty of
the position, you have to be careful of wasting an early pick on a starting
pitcher. One thing to keep in mind is
how easy it is to pick up good free agent pitchers in most leagues. There are a lot of good young pitchers and
some guys just have crazy-good fluke seasons like Esteban Loaiza did last
year. If push comes to shove, you can
always go with my “pick up the guy starting against the Tigers at Comerica”
strategy that was successfully deployed last year.
I hate ranking these players because
so much is opinionated and thus too close to call. Therefore, I will group these guys in the rounds they should
fall.
Player Ratings:
Mark Prior: I
would be shocked if Prior wasn’t taken with one of the first five picks in a
draft. He has great numbers, and his
age could be a mixed blessing. On one
hand, one could argue that since he is still young and inexperienced he likely
will improve upon his incredible numbers from last year. Many would point to his extremely good
second half last year as an indication of a certain Cy Young in 2004. However, there are definitely some things to
look out for with him. In no way is he
low risk for a pick this high. Since he
is so unproven, there is also the possibility that last year’s numbers were
semi-fluky. Also, he pitches for the
worst pitcher’s manager in baseball. I
still cannot believe Dusty Baker put him back out in the game last year after
that collision with Marcus Giles. This
equates for a much greater chance of being injured. He also could have the NL’s worst defense behind him this year,
and again will not get too much run support.
Though his bullpen has improved with Latroy Hawkins, I put very little
emphasis on this for Cubs pitchers since Dusty Baker never pulls anyone. Statistically he was lucky last year in
facing some of the easiest batters in the league. His opponents had a combined .744 OPS last year. When compared to Mike Mussina’s .782, Prior
definitely faced lesser competition.
However, I’m sure Prior will again get the benefit of facing easier batting
because he is in the NL Central. With
all this in mind, I’d still be shocked if Prior’s ERA was much above 3.00. Since he has such a smooth delivery and is
so young, his chances of being hurt aren’t too great even though Dusty Baker
would pitch him back-to-back nights.
Even though he will probably have a great season and certainly should
have great strikeout numbers, he still is overvalued because of the media
attention and Cubs fans. Don’t pick him
unless he slips into the middle of the first round or lower. If you see a Cubs fan behind you in the
draft, pick him and trade him to that person for his/her first 7 picks.
Randy Johnson, Pedro
Martinez, Curt Schilling, Kevin Brown: I have lumped all
these guys together because of their incredibly high ceilings and high
risk. All of them battled injuries the
past few years. Of them all, I would
recommend Pedro the most. He is the youngest
of the bunch, still has perhaps the best stuff in the game, and plays for a
very good team. His ERA hasn’t been
above 3.00 since 1996. Although his
“dead arm” and slipping K/BB numbers from last year are quite a concern, I
would consider taking him later in the first round. I don’t think I’d take Schilling, Johnson, or Brown any sooner
than the second round. It depends on
your draft strategy whether or not you should choose to go after these
guys. If you are like me, you wait
until the later rounds to pick risky players.
However, some people who aren’t as active with free agents do need to
pick riskier players in the early rounds if they want to win. I strongly believe that to win the league
you have to make several sleeper picks.
Since all three of these guys could put up Cy Young numbers, it is
conceivable to pick any one in the first or second round, but I wouldn’t
recommend this.
Randy Johnson had an awful year last
year and is 40. He will have great
strikeout numbers as always, but I cannot see his full season numbers
warranting this early of a pick considering last year’s arm troubles.
Schilling has always had great
strikeout/walk numbers, but has always given up a lot of home runs. Last year his walk rate increased by about
75%, he battled injuries, and his home run rate stayed about the same. People will argue that those numbers are the
result of a one-time injury, but the fact is that Schilling has never really
had an incredible ERA. At age 37, too
many question marks surround him. Even
though I don’t see him as being as injury prone, I am not a fan of his ERA
potential. He was lucky to post a sub-3
ERA last year, and with a change to the AL East, I doubt he will pull that off
again this year. He will get a lot of
run support and should rack up more wins, but for the most part he is largely
overvalued. That being said, if he is
available in the late second round I would consider taking him.
Kevin Brown is loaded with risk and
upside. On the plus side, he is going
to get over a run per game of support more this year than last. He also posted a 2.39 ERA last year and has
nasty stuff. However, his career has
been plagued with injuries, and at 38, I wouldn’t put too much money on him
staying healthy this whole year even though he stayed pretty healthy last
year. His strikeout numbers are fading
and, like Schilling, he has made a move to the AL East, so I certainly would
not take him in the first 2 rounds. He
is still pretty risky in the 3rd round and likely won’t be available
because he is so overrated being on the Yankees.
Jason Schmidt: Schmidt
is a pretty solid early pick. He has
stayed healthy the past two years, and put up incredible numbers last
year. His ERA likely will move up a
little bit from the 2.34 mark last year, but he still will have a good WHIP,
strikeout numbers, and win totals. His
“one-year wonder” tag might have some legitimacy, but it also might mean he
will fall to the second round. Although
I would probably target a hitter with these picks, Schmidt is a solid pick if
you are really concerned with pitching or in a pitching intensive league. He had off-season elbow surgury for what its worth.
Roy Halladay: Harry
Leroy Halladay is one of the safest picks around at starting
pitcher. His BB/K rate was awesome last
year, he is young, gets ample run support, and has never shown to be injury
prone. He should accumulate a 3 ERA,
200 strikeouts, and 20 wins. For risk
evasive individuals like myself, this is your guy. His Cy Young might make him overvalued in some leagues, but he is
be a definite 2nd round pick if available.
Javier Vazquez: He
is right up there with Halladay as one of the more sure picks in the
draft. He could have over 250
strikeouts this year, his walk numbers are excellent, and playing on the
Yankees ensures him quite a few wins.
He is young and not injury prone.
The only two risk factors with him are how well he will adapt to the
city of New York and if his ERA will climb much being in the AL East. His ERA should stay slightly below 3.5 and
his strikeout, WHIP, and win numbers should be great. He may last late into the 3rd or even 4th rounds
in most drafts. He could be a real
steal at this point.
Tim Hudson: Probably
the result of being in the “big three,” Hudson always seems to be overlooked
for how steady and good he is. He is
still young, doesn’t get injured often, and has great numbers. His ERA should again be below 3, his WHIP in
the low ones, he’ll have more than 15 wins again, and he puts up decent
strikeout numbers. He is a great pick
for a risk evasive person and is really overshadowed by the high-ceiling guys
ahead of him. There is a decent chance
he’ll last until the 4th round in most drafts, and I wouldn’t
hesitate at all to pick him up here. If
you don’t draft a pitcher early, strongly consider taking Hudson in the 3rd
round. Of course, if you drafted a
starting pitcher or two in the early rounds, go after a hitter here.
Barry Zito: There
is reason to be concerned about Zito after a huge fall in the walk and
strikeout numbers last year. However,
anyone who has seen Zito pitch knows he’s a very solid pitcher. He is quite young, has started 35 games each
of the past three seasons, and still pitches in a great pitcher’s park. I don’t buy into the “Zito decline trend”
and think he should rebound a bit this year.
I’d expect upwards of 15 wins, a low 3 ERA, solid strikeout numbers and
an average WHIP. Because he is getting
so much negative attention, there is a good chance he drops into the 5th
round where he could be a very solid second starter.
Mark Mulder:
I have always contended that Mulder has the best stuff of any of the A’s
starters, but he always gets the least hype.
He is young and, like Zito and Hudson, should put up solid win and ERA
numbers. However, the one element that
plagues Mulder is injuries. Though he
is by no means terribly injury prone, he has run into some small problems in
the past. This being said, he is still
a very good pick who could fall into the 5th round. He’d also be a great pick at this point.
Kerry Wood: His
value has gone up the past few years because he has stayed healthy. However, all of the warnings I gave about
Prior I also pass on to Wood. Wood will
likely have a very good ERA, decent wins, and excellent strikeout numbers. However, there is a good chance he’ll lead
the NL in walks and thus take a hit in WHIP.
Because Cubs fans will litter your league and greatly overvalue him,
Wood won’t be available in the late 4th round where he should be
picked.
Mike Mussina:
He had the unlucky task of facing the league’s most difficult hitting last
year, and he managed to have an excellent season. He has had some semi-flaky seasons in years past, but for the
most part has been consistently good and healthy. Again, he should face tough hitting, but is due for a lot of
wins, and excellent WHIP, solid ERA, and decent strikeout numbers. He is a definite if he lasts until the 5th
round.
Roy Oswald:
He has been consistently great since entering the league three years ago. Pitching in a terrible pitcher’s park, he
has managed to post a career 2.92 ERA and close to a strikeout per inning. The only blemish on his record, and the
thing that could make him a serious sleeper, were his injury problems in
2003. He is another guy that could slip
to the late 4th round, but with his Cy Young potential is definitely
a risk worth taking that late.
Josh Beckett:
Okay, the guy has a great arm, but I cannot imagine him not being overvalued in
every league. He had a great end to
last season, but has never proven to be a consistent pitcher who can stay
healthy enough and have enough control to warrant an early draft pick. Since he likely will go in the late 2nd
or early 3rd round, I wouldn’t worry about picking him too much.
Johan Santana:
Johan has become the ace of the Twins and has some very interesting
numbers. His ERA was .7 point lower as
a starter and over 2 points lower on the road.
He had a 1.94 ERA on the road last season! He has very good stuff and I think is ready for his first full
season as a starter. He could perhaps
last until the 6th round in some leagues, and warrants a good amount
of though in the 5th round.
Bartolo Colon: Colon
might stand to benefit the most of all the pitchers in the league from his move
this winter. Being in Anaheim takes him
away from the White Sox run support and defense and puts him in front of a
strong defense and better run support.
Also, remember that 2 years ago he posted a sub-2 ERA and is still
relatively young.
Esteban Loaiza:
Even though most people write off his season last year as a fluke and point to
his ERA being over 4 after the all-star break, it is tough to ignore his 207/56
K/BB ratio. He probably won’t have a
season as good as last year’s, but I also doubt he will have a season as bad as
the years before last. Consider giving
him a shot if everyone passes on him through the first 4 or 5 rounds.
Hideo Nomo: Properly
valued; a good solid 3rd starter who still has an excellent park and
bullpen behind him.
Brandon Webb: Properly
valued; great numbers last year but could be in for a second year slump. Worth a bit of risk and could also be a
solid 3rd or 4th starter.
Dontrelle Willis: Overvalued;
I’m sure someone will jump up and pick him early even though he is at best a
mid-round selection.
Matt Morris: Undervalued;
a very good pitcher that can avoid injury and be dominant.
Rich Harden: Properly
valued; On one hand, he has dominant stuff and is another bright prospect for
the A’s. On the other hand, I don’t
know if he’ll settle down this year and avoid the huge walk totals. He is a good, risky pick if you can get him
late enough. If you have other
starters, maybe selectively start him and give him some time to develop if you
draft him.
- For most other highly ranked pitchers I either don’t have much of an opinion or my opinion is obvious.
C.C. Sabathia: Should
be available pretty late in drafts, is still young, has a great arm, and posts
very good numbers. His ERA was 3.6 last
year with solid strikeout totals, but no one seemed to notice. Though he probably won’t put up Cy Young
numbers, expect good things out of this all-fat team super prospect.
A.J. Burnett:
Injuries last year, but if he stays healthy could put up excellent
numbers. Will be available quite late
in drafts and is worth a low-risk late pick.
Mark Buehrle: I
still cannot explain why he had such an off year last year besides the fact
that he got really unlucky. Since many
others will recognize his being a sleeper, go after him in the middle rounds. He could have a great season in 2004.
Miguel Batista: Being
on the Blue Jays should triple his run support. He has had three solid seasons in Arizona and should put up
around a 4 ERA with good win totals for the Jays. He is a pretty safe and good last starter to have.
Ben Sheets: No one seems to
recognize that Sheets battled back problems for the greater part of last
year. He was developing his change-up
and pitching very well before he somewhat collapsed the second half. If he stays healthy, expect a low 3 ERA from
Sheets who should go very late in drafts.
- There are several good young pitchers and rookies, but I would advise looking out for these guys as free agent pickups. No one can say if they will make their teams or if they’ll be ready for the big leagues.
Recap:
I’d strongly advise targeting the guys I listed in the second bracket. The early picked pitchers are very good, but too risky for me. Their numbers are too easily replaced by a guy you can get in the third round. For instance, I don’t think Curt Schilling is that much more valuable than Tim Hudson. Though it will greatly depend on the situation, I anticipate drafting hitters the first 2 rounds and taking about 3 starters in the next 6 rounds. After this, I’d recommend targeting the sleeper picks and free agent youngsters before wasting top 10 round picks on the glut of players that are all interchangeable. This means try to avoid drafting in that range of players from Roger Clemens to Mark Redman (AKA guys with the low 4 ERA’s) unless you have a pretty good feeling (and reason behind it) about a guy. Also, follow the pitchers’ performances in spring training if you have a late draft. Sometimes, though not always, spring training results can be a good indication for a pitcher. Really though, don’t take these numbers too severely. And lastly, check for injuries and feel how your draft is going. Before making any selection, make sure the player didn’t get hurt over the winter or isn’t still hurt from last year. If a lot of pitchers are taken early, you might have to jump up a round to take these guys. If you completely miss out on the early selections, you will need to target the middle range of pitchers, go after solid middle relievers to help the ERA, WHIP, and K’s, and do the best you can with free agents as the season goes along. Again, don’t be worried if you are a pitcher or two short after the draft. Every year I’ve played I’ve had at least 2 or 3 different starters at year’s end than I did at the beginning.