Simply stated, the fans in Milwaukee are pissed. The organization has spent foolishly, fell far short of its promises, and now wants to cut team payroll to $30 million for 2004.
Soon after the end of last season, financial shadiness on the behalf of the Brewers came to public attention. I could write all day about the stupid financial decisions that management has made, but looking back and complaining really is useless at this point. The organization, deeply in debt, planned on cutting salaries almost in half. Following this, Ulice Payne, who was loved by Brewers fans because he shelled out promises like they were fireworks on the Fourth of July, was fired for not keeping his mouth shut. Needless to say, the fans who were promised a winning team in Miller Park have had just about enough. I don't think I need to address the importance of not pissing off customers. Though the fans have more than a right to be upset, they have to realize that unless they'll come 30,000 strong to every game this year, the Brewers cannot spend $50,000,000 in salary and be profitable. You all get the point, and I really don't want to talk about this. The situation with upper-management and fans is a mess.
Through this whole fiasco, Doug Melvin and his assistants have done all they can to make the team better. Melvin has even less to work with this year than he did last year when his biggest signing was Royce Clayton. With the exception of Geoff Jenkins, all the higher priced players from last year are gone. Brewers fans are outraged only because they see that the team is spending less and therefore cannot do as well as last year when they finished well below 500. These fans (read some editorials in the Journal Sentinel) need to think and certainly need to stop talking and influencing other fans. Most of the players that were lost were utterly useless and/or certainly not worth their pricetag; Glendon Rusch, Royce Clayton, Eric Young, Mike DeJean, but most of all JEFFREY HAMMONDS. HE IS FINALLY NOT BEING PAID ANY MORE!!!! And that brings us to the last pricetag, Richie Sexson.
The Sexson trade could not have come at a worse time. Richie was the biggest fan favorite in Milwaukee and for good reason. Though he would be paid a modest price for someone of his caliber, $8 million in 2004, the Brewers could not afford to keep him. Even more than the price was the fact that Sexson would be a free agent at the end of the year, and the Brewers could not afford to get nothing for him. Melvin needed to trade him but also needed to keep the fans from tearing down Miller Park. Therefore, he engineered a trade to bring in several players to help the team in 2004 and create a new fan-favorite, Craig Counsel. Whether this is a smart move or not has a ton of other factors including the ability to trade other players, the quality of the prospects received, and the existence of any other offers which could have been taken. Only time will tell if this was a smart move, but I think Melvin certainly did his best to minimize fan fallout.
Now to the fun part: How is the team looking right now for 2004?
The Sexson trade has assured that the team will have plenty of depth at third base, second base, and shortstop. Even if Junior Spivey is traded, and I really hope he is because he is not needed and the Crew could get something for him, the team will have plenty of second basemen. The trade also brought a starting cathcer in Chad Moeller, a new first-baseman in Lyle Overbay, and hopefully some more immediate pitching help in Chris Capuano. Though Spivey, Counsel, Overbay, Capuano, and Moeller will likely contribute well to the 2004 cause, the key to the Sexson deal is pitching prospect Jorge de la Rosa. I certainly would have liked to have seen the Brewers get more of a prospect or prospects than this, but maybe de la Rosa will turn out to be good. He is 22 and pitched pretty well in mixed duty between AA and AAA last year. Some question marks remain as to whether he will be used as a starter or reliever, and I highly doubt he will ever be a top-notch pitcher. However, the Crew is in great need of more pitching depth after almost every pitching prospect got hurt last year.
Besides the players from the trade, Melvin is again going with his attitude of quantity will eventually equal quality. This is true of his minor league agenda as well as his agenda for the big league club where Melvin has numerous holes to fill again this year. Very few players remain from last year's squad, and Melvin is being very patient with pushing prospects into holes they may not be ready to fill. I'll go position by position and lay out who is gone and who is getting a shot...
Catcher: Both Eddie Perez and Keith Osik likely will be gone. The Braves signed Perez and by doing so may have given the Brewers an additional draft pick in next year's draft. This was a fantastic move on Melvin's behalf. He offered Perez abritration thus assuring that if he signed with a different team before a set deadline, the Brewers would be compensated. Though he and Osik played their hearts out last year, the Brewers certainly could use more production out of their catcher spot. Chad Moeller should be an improvement defensively, but most likely won't turn any heads with the bat. For a solid backup to Moeller, the Crew has some serious work to do. They certainly cannot depend on any help from the minor leagues where Kade Johnson, who struggled mightily at AA last year, would be the only player to even consider. Melvin will again throw a bunch of crafty old catchers into spring training and hope one of them stands out enough to become the team's second catcher this year. He recently invited Mark Johnson, major league driftwood, to spring training. The Crew has also recently signed catcher Gary Bennett to a one year deal. I'll sum it all up, basically, Chad Moeller and Jake Taylor will be catching for the Brewers in 2004.
First Base: This position has been left wide open. The early front runner to take Sexson's spot would of course be Lyle Overbay. Overbay was one of the D'Backs top prospects a couple of years ago. However, after two disappointing seasons, the D'Backs more or less gave up on him. Expect the Brewers to be far more patient with him in hopes of finding why he was so highly regarded. If Overbay does not come out of his long slump, I don't know what the Brewers will do. In a similar approach, the Crew has invited Jeff Liefer to spring training. Liefer, much like Overbay, was a top prospect a couple of years ago but never panned out. As a product of the White Sox, Liefer demonstrated for about a month why he was so highly rated but was traded to the Expos where he never fully developed. The Brewers will give him a shot and hope he gets his act together. As you can see, Melvin is searching for another Scott Podsednik. If neither Overbay or Liefer works out, I would expect the signing of some other cheap bastard or moving Helms to first sooner than I'd expect to see prospects Prince Fielder or Brad Nelson playing in the big leagues.
Second, Third, and Shortstop: Moves over the past couple years have made the infield the deepest position the Brewers have at both the major league and minor league level. The team has a glut of solid second basemen in the minors led by top prospect Rickie Weeks. In addition, the team has multiple people who can fill the position in 2004. Whoever does not play at second will likely get a good amount of playing time at shortstop. Wes Helms should be the everyday third baseman, and the Crew really needs a strong season from him next year. Being the most likely power source from the right side of the plate, Helms could be hitting cleanup or in the five-hole every game. If Spivey is not traded, he would start most games at second. This would leave time to be split between Bill Hall, Craig Counsel, and Keith Ginter at short. All three would also back up Helms and Spivey at third and second respectively. Because of his plate approach and solid power numbers, Ginter left a lasting impression with the organization after last season. Therefore, Yost and Melvin want to find a place for him to play every day. He may end up platooning in the outfield as well as the infield.
Besides the glut of prospects at second base, the Crew also has players knocking at the door on the left side of the infield. J.J. Hardy is regarded by many as the team's top prospect as was expected to see some time at short later in the 2004 season. He will get a shot during spring training to win some people over and maybe get a chance to make the team. I would highly doubt that they'd keep him on the team unless they planned to use him every day. The same is true for prospect Corey Hart at third base. Hart, who won the MVP of the AA Southern League last year, would certainly benefit from another year of development in the minors. Expect to see Hart, Weeks, and Hardy up in September but probably not sooner.
The young prospects will not be the only ones competing to win a job during spring training. Melvin has also snagged a few other players who could win the everyday shortstop position, fill in if someone is traded or injured, or just be used as pinch hitters. One of these players is Matt Erickson. Erickson, a 28 year-old from Appleton, put up outstanding numbers in AAA last year. In 98 games at Albuquerque last year, he slugged .463, had an amazing .442 on-base percentage, and a solid 43/42 walk to strikeout ratio. You never know what you're going to get from a player like this, but in my opinion trying players like this out is a great idea because there is very little risk involved. We all saw what kind of results the team got from Scott Podsednik last year. Although Erickson played in a high scoring AAA league last year, his numbers were too good to ignore. At the very least, it will be interesting to see how these invitees compete with the roster players and prospects in spring training and throughout next year.
Outfielders: There are two things that are keeping Geoff Jenkins on the roster to start the 2004 season: 1) Fans do not want to see him go too. 2) The Brewers are incredibly thin in the outfield. Expect to see Jenkins, Podsednik, and Ben Grieve starting to start the season. Grieve is another one of Melvin's low-risk investments because the Brewers will pay him little over the league minimum. Melvin is again looking for Grieve to break out of a long funk and regain the form that won him the rookie of the year award in 1998. The problem with him is that he is incredibly injury prone. If anyone has time to look at his injuries from last year, I would highly recommend it. This, in addition to Jenkins being injured or traded, leaves the team looking for reliable backups in the outfield. Brady Clark will again see solid playing time, and as I mentioned before Ginter or maybe even Spivey would be moved to the outfield. As we all know, the Transformer is always available though he looked quite shaky out there last year. Unlike the infield situation, the team has no prospects to play out there in 2004.
Do not expect to see John Vander Wal out there next year. The Brewers offered him arbitration, but he does not seem interested in accepting. This could work out great, just like the Eddie Perez situation, if Vander Wal signs with some other team in the near future, the Brewers would get another compensatory first round pick in 2004. Let's keep our fingers crossed that he signs somewhere soon.
Melvin has invited a few other players to get a shot such as Jeff Liefer, Jon Nunnally, Chris Magruder, and more. The research I've done and the little I've seen these guys, with the exception of Liefer, do not indicate much of anything impressive. Because the team will carry so many infielders and pitchers, I would not be surprised to see them have only Grieve, Jenkins, Podsednik, and Clark on the roster to start next season. When one of these guys gets traded or injured, which will happen, there will be some serious patchworking to be done. I don't expect Melvin to go out shopping for many more outfielders or infielders either.
Pitchers: Not much has changed from the end of last year. The probable pitching rotation is still Sheets, Kinney, Doug Davis, Franklin, and Obermueller. Don't expect Luis Martinez to start the season off anywhere but AAA unless he proves he can pitch in the majors during spring training. Last year he was murdered in spring training. Almost every one of the pitching prospects who were said to have a chance at the roster at the beginning of last year got hurt, so do not expect much starting help from youngsters. There are a ton of guys who could pitch out of the bullpen and make spot starts. Once again, Melvin is going for quantity and hope it turns into quality. The bullpen will again be led by Dan Kolb at the closer spot. The setup role will be taken by the Vizcianos, Mike Crudale, the Transformer, Travis Phelps, and many many more. Dave Burba will again get a shot to contribute. The team could get some production from youngster in the pen, and the guys the team picked up in the Sexson trade and rule five draft will see time. For the most part, the bullpen is really up in the air though the Brewers certainly have a good amount of pitchers to give a shot to. Since Melvin will most likely make a few more purchases and since all of the pitching is so unclear, I will leave this topic to a later report.
So, here are some things to look for the Crew to do in the next few months and an overview of how the team is looking for next year:
1) Stay away from signing any higher price players.
2) Find a way to trade Junior Spivey.
3) Entertain offers for Geoff Jenkins.
4) Continue to look for deals.
-Points 1-4 relate to the fact that the organization is still building for the future. Anything it can do to improve the team for 2005 and on is a smart move.
As for this next year:
5) I think the team will have decent run production and could be one of the most fiesty teams to face. Counsel, Spivey, Ginter, and Podsednik all take a bunch of pitches and get on base. If the team can get enough power out of some players, and if certain players regain their form from seasons ago and stay healthy, the offense will do alright.
6) The starting pitching staff is more experienced this year than last. Due to the sheer number of pitchers that will get a shot and be at AAA, expect much better results from the fourth and fifth starters. The bullpen is largely unproven and I have no idea how it will end up being.
7) This will be the whitest team in a long time and should often have all nine starters be white, especially if they trade Spivey.
8) Though the team has lost Sexson and cut salary, something tells me it will improve from last year but not reach .500. As it stands now, I would put them to finish in fourth place in the central division. Though this opinion will not be shared by many, something tells me to have confidence in Doug Melvin, Ned Yost, and the character players on the team. However, only time will tell if players stay healthy, avoid slumps, and can improve.