-By Thomas K. Bowles 3/8/01
First of all, I'd like to start off by offering my condolences to the family, friends, and fans of Dale Earnhardt. His death is incredibly tragic, and you won't find anyone associated with NASCAR that has not been affected by his passing. It would be easy to write an article about his tragic loss, but there are hundreds of articles out there written by competent writers who do Dale far better justice than what I can put into words. Dale was never my favorite driver, but I always respected him and was hoping, like most NASCAR fans, that he would someday capture his eighth title. He will be sorely missed...but instead of focusing on Earnhardt's death, I'd like to focus on what this means for NASCAR Winston Cup Series in the immediate future.
It was interesting to hear Bill France's comments a little over two weeks ago at the press conference following Earnhardt's death. While France remarked that the sport may never be the same, he indicated that someone, somewhere, will step up to fill Earnhardt's shoes. While it's hard to imagine anyone ever completely fulfilling the legacy Earnhardt left behind, a closer look shows that Earnhardt's death, while tragic, may merely accelerate a changing of the guard in Winston Cup that was already close at hand. What do I mean? Well, this may surprise some fans, but at 49, Earnhardt was the oldest driver running in the Daytona 500 this year. While Dale was obviously immensely successful driving Winston Cup in his late 40s, winning 6 races from 1998-2000 and finishing runner up in the points a year ago, his performance does not reflect the declining patterns of most of the all-time greats. Recently retired Darrell Waltrip won his last race at 45, and last finished in the Top 10 in points at age 47. David Pearson won his last race at 46, and ran only a handful of competitive races in his final seasons. Benny Parsons and Cale Yarborough last won races at age 45 and 47, respectively; each retired two years later. Even the King, Richard Petty, last won a race at age 47 and was rarely a competitive force upon hitting age 50, although he did not retire until age 54. While there have been drivers such as Earnhardt, Bobby Allison, Harry Gant, and Dick Trickle that have broken that pattern, it is reasonable to conclude based on past performances that even for the great drivers, a sharp decline in driving performance begins to occur around age 45 or 46. With that said, here are the full-time Winston Cup drivers who will be between the ages of 42 and 46 by the end of 2001:
Rusty Wallace (45), Terry Labonte (45), Mark Martin (42), Bill Elliott (46), Brett Bodine (42), Ron Hornaday (43), Jimmy Spencer (44), Ricky Rudd (45), Mike Skinner (44), Sterling Marlin (44), Bobby Hamilton (44), Robert Pressley (42), Dale Jarrett (45), Rick Mast, Ken Schrader (46)*
*-oldest current active full-time Cup driver (Dave Marcis is now part-time)
This is a group that combined has around 4,000 Winston Cup starts and 236 Winston Cup victories (312 if you add the late Dale Earnhardt). Additionally, if you again count Earnhardt, they have won 12 of the past 17 Winston Cup Titles (only Gordon, Bobby Labonte, and now-retired Darrell Waltrip have won one during this span). In comparison, the other drivers currently racing on the Cup circuit account for only around 115 victories (it depends on who you consider an active Cup driver), led by Jeff Gordon, who has 52 (no one else has more than 16). Now, I'm not suggesting that all these veteran drivers are just going to magically start running at the back of the pack, but we're entering a critical time period during the next few years where a large number of Winston Cup veterans are going to either retire or start on a pronounced downside of their careers. By the end of 2004, based on the patterns above, a good number of these drivers will no longer be in Winston Cup, or planning their own retirement tours.
A similar situation happened to NASCAR in the late 1980s. By 1988, NASCAR was looking at the retirements or impending retirements of David Pearson, Benny Parsons, and Cale Yarborough. Richard Petty was past his prime, and while Darrell Waltrip would win Daytona in 1989, he would never again achieve the greatness he had in the mid-1980s. The drivers above currently account for Additionally, during that year the sport learned it had permanently lost one of its young, promising stars in Tim Richmond, to a mysrerious virus..he would die in 1989 of AIDS. To top it all off, the summer of 1988 saw Bobby Allison's horrendous crash at Pocono which ended the veteran's racing career at age 50. NASCAR was at a crossroads...but out of the ashes stepped up Earnhardt, Elliott, Rusty Wallace, Terry Labonte, and Mark Martin. Then, in the early 1990s, we saw Jeff Gordon, Bobby Labonte, Jimmy Spencer, and Jeff Burton emerge, and the sport never skipped a beat, even with the retirement of Petty and the agonizing decline of Darrell Waltrip.
Fast forward to 2001. Once again, the sport has recently lost its elder statesmen on the track, with the retirement of Darrell Waltrip and the tragic death of Earnhardt. Two of its promising young stars have also been killed - Kyle's son Adam Petty, and 1998 Rookie of the Year Kenny Irwin. Now, it is true that losing drivers to deaths on the track is far different than losing them to retirement, and there are certain safety issues that need to be looked at so that this does not keep happening (but that talk can be saved for another time and place). As hard as it is to understand right now, Darrell Waltrip and Dale Earnhardt share something similar - neither one will be out there racing on a Sunday afternoon ever again. And, while Earnhardt's death will continue to rock this sport for a long time, he's not the only star that's going to be leaving this sport in the next few years. To replace them, comes the new breed - Tony Stewart, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Kevin Harvick, Matt Kenseth, Elliott Sadler. Out of the ashes will again rise drivers who will begin to make a name for themselves in place of those left behind. So, for those who are calling NASCAR dead on arrival of this recent tragedy, remember Bill France's words, and rest assured that the sport will keep growing and changing just fine, thank you.
P.S. For all the talk about losing as much as half of stock car racing fans throughout the country in light of Earnhardt's death, the Rockingham race and the Las Vegas race both were the highest rated sports programs of the weekend, delivering 7.0 and 6.2 ratings, respectively.