| This
year there is a cloud hanging over this years ceremonies due to current
world events and affairs. Whether you agree or disagree with what is
happening, there is no denying the impact and imprint that they will have
on our lives. But as a part of trying to maintain a respectful
normalcy, the show must go on so as to showcase and revel in the freedoms
that we are defending. Also casting a lesser pall over things is the
campaigning, criticisms and controversy caused by reaction to the nominees
since their announcement a few weeks back. Nonetheless, tomorrow
night, under a muzzled attitude, with a somber tone, and with what will
surely be a patriotic and outspoken fervor, the show will go on.
This years nominees, more than any other year, reflect the Oscars tendency to lean more towards popularity than quality. Granted, there are some wonderful movies and nominees, but as the debate goes every year, are these really the best of the bunch? I don't really think so, but then again, when is the best of anything ever rewarded. There is one seeming shoo-in, another where a lifetime acheivement may be rewarded, and the potential for some crossover, counterculture controversy. In some cases, I will use my Will Win and Should Win categories. Some will have commentary along recommendations of notable Oscar omissions, in others, I will simply pick the winner and move on. Now, without further adieu, my picks for whom will strike gold, who will be robbed, and whose invitation got lost in the annual maelstrom of favoritism. I will start with the documentaries, short films and such, then through the technical categories and work up to the biggest ones. Best documentary feature Bowling for Columbine My Pick: Bowling for Columbine This
was not just the best documentary, it was in my opinion, the best film of
the year. Granted, I have not seen any of the others, but since
Dogtown & Z-Boyz (the second best documentary of the year) was not
nominated, this should be one of the locks of the night. Should be
fun to see Moore's comments, along with a certain Best Song nominee,
should be one of the highlights of the night. Best documentary short subject The Collector of Bedford Street Will Win: Twin Towers Best live action short film Fait D'HiverI'll Wait for The Next One Inja (Dog) Johnny Flynton This Charming Man (Der Er En Yndig Mand) Will Win: Inja (Dog) Best animated feature film of the year Ice Age Will Win: Spirited Away Best animated short film The Cathedral Will Win: The Chubb Chubbs Are Coming Disney vs Sony in this one. ChubbChubbs was a hilarious version of an alien crying wolf in the weirdest bar this side of the Star Wars cantina, however it did on the forgettable Men In Black II, which means that people didnt, or at least shouldnt, have seen it. Mike's New Car was a tie-in from Monster's Inc that Disney crammed down our throats, but was actually a bit more creative and humorous then the whole of Monsters Inc. Chubb Chubbs wins by an umm, tooth. Achievement in sound Chicago Will Win: Chicago This will be one of the many categories, where Rings
will prevail if there is a sweep. I foresee a Star Wars scenario
though, where it will win most of the technical and other categories but
be shut out otherwise. Frankly, this should be between Black Hawk
Down, and (as much as it pains me to say) Pearl Harbor, for their
realistic battle recreations. Black Hawk should win in that
instance, because part of its appeal came from the sights and sounds which
took us right into the middle of the battle whether we liked it or
not. Achievement in sound editing The
Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers Will Win: The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers Technical awards like this offer the only chance for movies that would not normally even get a sniff of gold. This applies here as well, as Pearl Harbor walks away with this one. Achievement in visual effects The
Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers Will Win: The
Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers Visually, only other movie matched Rings stunning effects, but since
the academy shied away from Potter, it will easily win this one. Achievement in art direction Chicago Will Win: Chicago Achievement in cinematography Chicago
- Dion Beebe Will Win: Far
From Heaven Achievement in costume design Chicago Will Win: Chicago This
is one that Chicago truly deserves to win. The outfits definitely captured
the playful darkness of the 20s and 30s. While Gangs and Hours played
on the typical period piece mode that Oscar voters seem to love, the
omission of Catch Me's visually explosive and relevant fashions remains a
mystery.
Achievement in film editing
Chicago Will Win: Chicago Achievement in makeup
Frida Will Win: Frida
Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original score)
Catch Me If You Can Will Win: Catch Me If You Can
Achievement in music written for
motion pictures (Original song) "Burn It Blue" -
Frida. - Music
by Elliot Goldenthal, Lyrics by Julie Taymor Will Win: "Lose Yourself" - 8-Mile
It
would be the highlight of the evening to see the incendiary, controversial
Eminem win the award. But that alone is not the reason I am
predicting a win. Frankly, the song was the one that best fit the
spirit and attitude of the film, and was actually contained in the film,
not just added in for the purpose of possibly contending.
Best foreign language film of the year
El Crimen De Padre Amaro - Mexico Will Win: - Nowhere
in Africa If Amaro isn't considered too
controversial, it could steal this one away from Africa.
Unfortunately, the best foreign film of the year, Y Tu Mama Tambien, was not
considered eligible, or it would have won this outright.
Screenplay based on material previously
produced or published Will Win: Adaptation Screenplay written directly for the screen Will Win: My Big Fat Greek Wedding This is the only chance for the Academy to recognize the overlooked Wedding, or the Foreign Film ineligible Tambien, both of which are worthy. However Haynes could sneak in with Heaven Performance by an actor in a supporting role Chris Cooper - Adaptation Will Win: Chris
Cooper - Adaptation These nominations anger me the most if only for the omission of the best supporting performance of the year, Arkin's tortured pessimistic insurance salesman in Conversations. Once again the Academy shows that it can rarely remember a movie that opened before summertime. Of those that are nominated, Cooper seems to be the favorite amongst most, but this isn't role he deserves it for, that honor goes to Lone Star or any number of other supporting roles that he's had. Harris is in the same boat, but not favored. Walken's tortured romantic, everyman portrayal of a loyal father watching his son's life aspire and spiral out of control simultaneously is the most deserving byfar. Performance by an actress in a supporting role Kathy Bates - About SchmidtJulianne Moore - The Hours Queen Latifah - Chicago Meryl Streep - Adaptation Catherine Zeta-Jones - Chicago Will Win:
Catherine Zeta-Jones - Chicago Performance by an actress in a leading role Salma Hayek - Frida Will
Win: Nicole Kidman - The
Hours Thus
begins my rant on the deliniation between leading and supporting
roles. Moore's role in The Hours was more of a lead than Kidman's so
their nominations are flipflopped in my opinion. Moore is deserving,
but Kidman had the early momentum and may carry that through.
However Zellweger could sneak in, since the Chicago love fest may reward
her as well Performance by an actor in a leading role Adrien Brody - The PianistNicolas Cage - Adaptation Michael Caine - The Quiet American Daniel Day-Lewis - Gangs of New York Jack Nicholson - About Schmidt Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis - Gangs of New York A two man race here, between the multi-winner Nicholson, and the industry favorite Lewis. Cage's portrayal of dual personalities was admirable, while Brody's sad tortured musician was powerful, but in the end, I think Lewis should carve up the competition and carry home the gold. Achievement in directing Chicago - Rob MarshallGangs of New York - Martin Scorsese Talk to Her - Pedro Almodovar The Hours - Stephen Daldry The Pianist - Roman Polanski Will Win: Gangs of New York - Martin Scorsese Easily the most controversial and talked about category of the evening, and this time not because of the usual process of omitting one of the Best Picture nominees. Between Polanski's not attending due to fear of arrest and William Goldman's powerful campaign against Scorsese, this category has turned downright ugly. Marshall could sneak in, due to the predicted Chicago sweep, but the odds are still on the Academy finally recognizing Scorsese at least 10-20 years too late. Best motion picture of the year Chicago Will Win: Chicago Usually the most dramatic point of the evening will be anti-climatic and as obvious a game of Horse between Michael Jordan and Clara Peller. With the best films of the year omitted, Chicago basically walks away with the award for the "best of the rest" Enjoy the show, but remember most of all what is most important in the world. Whether you believe in the reasons or support the decisions of our leaders, please keep the men and women protecting our freedom and serving our country, in your thoughts and prayers in your every waking moment. Thank you, and God Bless America |
