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The next BIG Race Analysis is...
The 42nd Bowling Green Handicap
8th Race @ Belmont
NOTE: Yes, I'm still here. It's amazing isn't it? Where can you get information like this for free? Everywhere, right? Just kick back and relax. I'll hit one pretty soon.
1. Parade Ground...Sellers/118...He may have finally reached a race in top condition. His works lately have been very good. He likes this track and though he's never faced this exact distance, he's run well longer so there's no concern there. Didn't like the way he seemingly gave up in the Manhattan though. That is a nagging image. Howard winning at 20% this year and 31-90 days off he sports a 27% winning mark from more than 200 starts. Sellers back after two lackluster finishes with Pat Day.
2. Fahris...Migliore/113...Finished nicely in the Dixie fresh off the boat. Then threw in a stinker in the grade 1 Manhattan. Came back nicely in an allowance and could be sitting on a good effort here. He was a group 3 winner in the UK and McLauglin is hitting his stride nicely this year. 29% at the meet, 23% for the year with a positive ROI. He and the MIG teaming up with 23% winners an a positive, barely, ROI. Don't be surprised to see him in the money here.
3. Chorwon...Borel/115...Likes to come from way out but I'm not sure he'll get the kind of pace he needs here to be effective. He finished 4th last year, beaten nearly 6 lengths. He is 4 for 5 at the distance so that is a positive. Nothing wrong with the workouts, especially the last one. Might be a bit over his head here. He'll have to step up to do it. Pace makes the race though.
4. Federal Trial...Davis/118...Rooooobie's back and he's 4-3-1 on the 3/4 brother to Skip Away.
He doesn't work nearly as fast as his brother though. In fact, he seems downright lazy in the morning. But the 4 year-old has strung together some mighty impressive performances since last November. Got a bit of a slow start as Yagli made his move in the Manhattan or I believe he would have been much closer. He probably wouldn't have won, but it would have been interesting. Now 2nd race off the short break and he should be sitting on a BIG one here. Goldfine winning 21% this year and 23% 31-90 days layoff. He's captured 32% of graded stakes entered and all of the above categories come complete with a positive ROI.
5. Heavens East...Smith/111...Has performed nicely a level or 2 below this. Other than the fact that he is 2 for 2 at the distance, there really isn't any reason to believe that he could win here.
6. Honor Glide...Santos/113...Came in off the layoff with a new trainer after being managed by Vestal. Turf specialist Clement brought him up to the race with some oddly spaced and rather ordinary works but he showed signs of old when finishing a strong 2nd behind Comic Strip. Now the works are stronger and there seems to be a pattern developing. I'd say he's a definite threat. And he'll own a say in the pace as well.
I might be following my heart as much as my head here but I think Federal Trial puts in quite possibly a career best to win this. With Yagli mysteriously declaring from Ascot this week, he could be poised to take a shot at the division lead with a solid performance here.I'll go with Honor Glide in second. He'll be tough if he can approach some of his past form 2nd off the layoff.
Fahris makes the exotic prices interesting here. Either that, or he sets the pace and folds.
1. Federal Trial
2. Honor Glide
3. Fahris
Best of luck everyone!!!
RESULTS:
6 Honor Glide............20.40 8.40 6.40
1 Parade Ground..................4.20 3.30
2 Fahris................................5.80
Exacta $70.50 Trifecta $523.00 TOR-2:11
©1999 Brad's BIG Race Analysis
