AMES, Iowa (AP) - George W. Bush scored a convincing victory in an Iowa straw poll, passing an early test of political potency that could unravel other Republican presidential campaigns.

Millionaire publisher Steve Forbes and former American Red Cross chief Elizabeth Dole finished second and third in the unofficial balloting conducted by the Republican party. Weak showings by former Vice President Dan Quayle and former Tennessee governor Lamar Alexander will raise questions about their political viability.

Aides had said Alexander would almost certainly drop out if he didn't finish among the top four candidates. He finished sixth. Sources close to the campaign said he is almost certain to drop out of the race.

A total of nine White House hopefuls poured millions of dollars and spent hundreds of hours in this initial caucus state to test their political strength.

"We met our expecations and we won this straw poll the Iowa way - neighbor to neighbor," Bush said in a victory statement immediately after the results were announced.

The straw poll is a pay-to-vote staple of Iowa politics, a party fund-raiser that looks more like a state fair. Barbecue fumes wafted from tent to tent, as country music stars and other celebrities entertained supporters.

Though no straw poll winner ever has won the Republican nomination, the contest has helped and hurt any number of candidacies ahead of the first real votes, the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary.

Introduced amid a burst of fireworks, patriotic tunes and a spray of balloons, Forbes didn't mention Bush by name but took steady aim at the Texas governor during his speech.

"The power of these Washington elites won't be tamed, bent or broken by a candidate who relies on pollsters and tutors to tell him what he thinks," he told a capacity straw poll crowd numbering more than 24,000.

Taking a higher road, Bush called his rivals "fine candidates" and stuck to his standard speech - delivered with little passion. "Together, we will prove that someone who is conservative and compassionate can win without sacrificing principles," he said.

Bush received nearly one third of the vote, or 7,418.

Forbes' second-place finish was solid but somewhat disappointing. Having outspent the entire field, the millionaire conservative had hoped to show his money and message made him a serious vote-getter. He earned 4,921 votes.

Elizabeth Dole, wife of former presidential candidate Bob Dole, had 3,410 - a solid showing for a first-time presidential candidate trying to expand the party's base to include more young and professional women. In a statement, she declared her showing "a great victory."

Alexander, with 1,428 votes, and Quayle, with 916 votes and an eighth-place finish, were the night's biggest disappointments.

After a closed-door meeting, Alexander's staff left the arena. One aide had tears in his eyes. Alexander has been running for president virtually nonstop for six years, having lost the 1996 nomination deeper into the primary season.

"We're going to go back to Tennessee tomorrow to consider our options," said Mike Tuffin, Alexander's New Hampshire field director.

Quayle's spokesman said the former vice president is in the race for the long haul. "No changes. No wiggle room," spokesman Jonathan Baron said. "We're going to conserve our resources and we plan to compete."

Still, his finish behind three other conservative contenders - Gary Bauer, Pat Buchanan and Alan Keyes - could dry up his fund-raising sources.

Bush supporters declared that the victory solidifies his standing as the GOP front-runner. They suggested that the results should thin the field.

"I think that, though this is not a scientific process and even though some demean it, you just have to take stock of where you are - whether you can raise the money and whether you can continue," said Montana Gov. Marc Racicot, one of Bush's closest political allies. He was in Iowa to campaign for the Texas governor.

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