DES MOINES, Iowa (AP) - Texas Gov. George W. Bush threw down a gauntlet to the Republican presidential field with a clear and convincing victory in a battle he had been advised to duck.

In some ways, the story line of the upcoming campaign will be how those rivals respond to the challenge.

"The race is now George W. Bush's to lose," said Drake University political scientist Hugh Winebrenner.

Bush started late, raised the bar of expectations by vowing to win Saturday's straw poll against candidates building toward the event for months, and then did precisely that.

"We have more than accomplished what we set out to do," an elated Bush declared.

"There's no way to say this is anything but a solid win," Michigan Gov. John Engler said as the strategists and campaigns began to assess a straw poll eagerly awaited by many to take the measure of a large and diverse Republican field.

Publisher Steve Forbes met one challenge, and then found himself confronted immediately by another. He demonstrated that an expensive and intensive grass-roots campaign could land him a second-place showing, and he was arguing that set him up as the alternative to Bush.

"Now Bush will have to engage us on the issues and the issues are our playing field," said Forbes strategist Greg Mueller. "The wind of inevitability is out of the Bush sails."

"I think I am the conservative alternative to challenge the status quo candidates," Forbes said. Like the third-place finisher, Elizabeth Dole, Forbes has never held elective office and faces the challenge of seeking the nation's highest office as his first.

Dole argued that her showing earned her top-tier standing and respect from the pundits, saying a brand-new pool of young and professional women is fueling her campaign.

"We have an invisible army and that's another reason we won," she said. "It's the people the pollsters didn't survey."

It's far from clear that Dole can motivate that army in numbers that pose a threat to Bush, well beyond the 3,410 votes she drew in the straw poll.

Conservative activist Gary Bauer finished fourth with his church-based network and seeks to coalesce social conservatives, although Forbes is courting the same group. The publisher brings along a personal fortune, and some pragmatists argue he can level the financial playing field with Bush.

"I think I've got staying power," Bauer contended. "We expect to go all the way to the convention."

For the other Republican candidates, there was little good news in the straw polls results. Some acknowledged it openly, others did not.

"The No. 1 rule in politics is to peak on Election Day" and not in a summertime straw poll, former Vice President Dan Quayle said on CNN. He said he "absolutely" will continue in the race despite his eighth-place finish.

Former Tennessee Gov. Lamar Alexander headed home to assess his options. Aides said today that he had decided to drop out of the race. Both he and Quayle faced serious fund-raising questions, and it would be hard to convince financial backers they have a realistic shot at the nomination.

There have been frequent suggestions that commentator Pat Buchanan could move to another party if his bid for the GOP nomination falters. His fifth-place showing, along with his reaction to it, did little to quell the rumbling.

"I don't know exactly where I'm going to be in August of 2000," when the nomination is awarded, Buchanan said. His fiery blend of conservative populism isn't a good fit with most of the alternative parties, and it's difficult to see him carving out a role within the GOP either.

Arizona Sen. John McCain skipped the straw poll, and he has left little doubt he'll bypass Iowa's leadoff caucuses next February to focus on the New Hampshire primary.

"I may not want to be a part of that," said McCain, arguing he'd prefer to focus on more traditional election campaigns.

He faces trouble, however, because he is left out of the political mix in the meantime, and candidates criss-crossing in Iowa get far more attention.

"It's a meaningless kind of senseless thing," McCain said of the straw poll.

It also offered an early definition of the presidential campaign, and McCain wasn't included.

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