TALLAHASSEE -- It's a political mix guaranteed to fire up a uniquely Florida stew of seamy intrigue: a vote to legalize slot machines at existing dog and horse tracks and jai-alai frontons in Broward and Miami-Dade counties.
A gambling industry spending wildly in the anything-goes bazaar of South Florida. Accusations of payoffs to county officials, and questions about the election's legality. Last-minute fly-ins by Gov. Jeb Bush and state lawmakers to lobby against the machines.
But the pell-mell madness leading up to Tuesday's vote to approve slot machines in those two counties may just be spring training for what's shaping up as a brutal lobbying war in Tallahassee over the next two months.
"I think one thing for sure," said Rep. Randy Johnson, a Republican from Celebration who is among the most fervent gambling opponents in the Legislature. "This (South Florida campaign) is a skirmish. Not even a battle and it's certainly not the war. The tent is going to get folded up and moved to Tallahassee Tuesday night."
The pro-gambling lobbyists agree.
"I think it will be one of the most debated and discussed issues of this session, without question," said Ron Book, one of Tallahassee's most powerful lobbyists who is leading the proslots effort.
The news of a political firestorm over slot machines in the two-month legislative session that begins Tuesday may surprise voters. Most may have figured the matter was settled when they voted to approve the slots option for South Florida last November.
But should both counties approve the slots Tuesday, lawmakers have to fill in the details, deciding things like hours of operation, the number of slots, the tax rate that will be paid to the state, etc. Some predict that Bush, with help from a staunchly anti-gambling House, will insist on limits so stringent that the pari-mutuel industry will fold its hands and move on to a court battle.
"Left up to the Legislature alone, we would pass a bill," said Sen. Steve Geller, D-Hallandale Beach. "I believe that (Bush) will insist on a bill that would be so objectionable to so many people that the pari-mutuel industry would try to kill the bill and would prefer nothing at all."
Pari-mutuel owners in South Florida promised to give 30 percent of their revenue to school districts statewide. Geller said that Bush could insist on a much higher tax rate, essentially driving the slots out of business before they even open.
Geller suggested that too-tight limits on the hours of operation or on the number of machines could also serve to kill a bill.
Geller said a trip to the court system to sort out the legalities "will clearly happen." That would allow a push by Johnson and others to put the matter before voters again next year.
But other lawmakers think there is a political limit on such chicanery, especially since lawmakers have already led a repeal of a voter-approved high-speed rail system and are currently working to make it harder for voters to approve constitutional amendments.
"People are getting a little bit tired of (lawmakers) not agreeing with their vote and trying to change that through whatever means," said Sen. Jim King, R-Jacksonville.
Largely absent from the antislots battle both last year and most of this year, Bush has thrown himself into the fray with gusto. That's no surprise.
Bush's anti-gambling stance is resolute. King quips that Bush would "buy back the lottery if he could."
Bush campaigned Friday against the measures in both counties. He called influential Spanish radio programs. And he's trying to mobilize Christian conservatives to fight.
And though he said his focus is on the Tuesday vote, he mused last week about the possibility of growth management laws restricting expansion of gaming facilities.
"Going through the development process could become a serious issue. They're not exempt from that. Which brings up an interesting point: How long will it take (to get things approved)? It could take forever," Bush said.
Yet another dynamic affecting lawmakers is the impact in their own districts. What seems to be a parochial South Florida issue could evolve into a direct impact statewide.
For one thing, existing Indian casinos like the Seminole Hard Rock in Tampa could expand. And the pressure for other dog and horse tracks and jai-alai frontons to push for expanded gambling would be great.