The gambling industry's TV and radio ads promise as much as $500 million annually for Florida schools if voters agree on Tuesday to open the door to slot machines. The state's most generous estimate is about $135 million less.
The state's calculation -- derived from a 2003 survey of slots in West Virginia, Rhode Island, Delaware and Iowa -- puts money for schools at about $365 million statewide.
For Miami-Dade and Broward combined, the difference is about $30 million -- enough to build a middle school.
The two estimates differ on the number of machines each site would support, but both use a 30 percent tax rate, the amount the industry has requested.
''We feel very comfortable with our analysis because we looked at other states,'' said Amy Baker, coordinator for the Legislature's Office of Economic and Demographic Research. ``Their analysis is their business plan. They believe they can pull this off, but sometimes business plans fail.''
Slots proponents say their own estimate is low, and that the South Florida market -- with its large population and tourism activity -- could easily generate a tax windfall of $500 million.
''I really do think they are being conservative,'' said former state Education Commissioner Jim Horne, who is supporting the initiative to bring slots to two jai-alai frontons and five racetracks in Broward and Miami-Dade. ``I think they are deliberately lowering the bar.''
The slots initiative is being touted as a way to inject Florida's public schools with much-needed cash, though the Legislature will have to approve the tax rate, and how to dole out the money.
MULTI-STATE ANALYSIS
The state, which studied the issue last summer, figures that each site can handle 1,200 to 1,765 machines. Slots backers say they can easily support more than 2,500 slots at each site, although the average profit per machine would decrease with more slots.
Many of West Virginia's racetracks have 2,500 slots, said Dan Adkins of the Hollywood Greyhound Track and Floridians for a Level Playing Field. ''West Virginia has 1.8 million people,'' Adkins said. ``That's almost the same as Broward County alone.''
One way to generate more money for education, regardless of how much revenue the slots produce: tax the machines at a higher rate. The Legislature will have that option this spring, though the parimutuel industry would lobby heavily against anything greater than 30 percent.
The tax rate could influence how much Miami-Dade and Broward schools would receive.
The parimutuel industry struck a contingency deal with the Florida School Boards Association under which it would give Florida schools 30 percent of the gross, that revenue then allocated using the state's existing formula for funding public schools. The industry says that could bring in about $111 million annually to Broward and Miami-Dade.
But that deal is void should the Legislature vote to tax slots revenue at a rate higher than 30 percent. Then there are no guarantees as to how the money would be split.
BIGGER SHARE SOUGHT
South Florida legislators are pushing for additional funding for Broward and Miami-Dade since they would be hosting the machines.
State Sen. Steve Geller, D-Hallandale Beach, has a bill that would give the two counties $75 per pupil off the top. The rest would be divided among Florida's 67 districts -- Broward and Miami-Dade included.
Another question is whether the money would go to K-12 education, one reason why the Broward School Board has been lukewarm toward slots.
COMPETING SECTORS
''The fact that there's a great deal of uncertainty on how the funds would be distributed is certainly of concern to us,'' said Alberto Carvalho, Miami-Dade's associate superintendent who oversees lobbying. ``Even though it's somewhat nebulous, I believe the common citizen understands it as K-12 education.''
But with the looming financial burden of the new universal pre-K program and growing demands at community colleges and universities, Carvalho predicted everyone will be fighting for the cash.
Broward political consultant Dan Lewis, who is leading opposition to slots, believes the Legislature will act punitively toward South Florida -- giving Broward and Miami-Dade less than the two counties would receive under the Florida Education Finance Program, the per-pupil funding formula that has been proposed by the Florida School Boards Association.
Horne disagrees.
''I really think Broward and Miami-Dade are going to get FEFP-plus,'' he said. ``There are going to be some legislators who don't like it, but I think they are going to be able to make an argument that they should get a larger piece of the pie.''
The formula for doling out the money is important. Broward and Miami-Dade counties have been at a disadvantage under the one used to distribute construction dollars for new classrooms as called for by the class-size reduction amendment, which relies heavily on enrollment growth. Miami-Dade's enrollment is declining, and Broward's growth is no longer as dramatic as it had been in the late 1990s.
IMPACT ON LOTTERY
In addition to the dispute over how much money slots may generate, the industry and the state also disagree on how slot machines will affect the Lottery.
The state believes it could siphon off $55 million a year from that pot, which also helps fund education. The industry believes the Lottery losses would be less.
Herald staff writer Matthew I. Pinzur contributed to this report.