Tenken: Japan’s Theatre Missile Defence

 

 

“If you look at world history, ever since Humanity began waging war, you will see that there’s a permanent race between sword and shield. The sword always wins. The more improvements that are made to the shield, the more improvements are made to the sword. But sometimes the person carrying the most lethal sword can be the one carrying the best shield as well.”

 

Former Prime Minister Hiraoka Kimitake, Mainichi Daily News, December 17, 1999.

 

On 30 May 2004, at 2.24.28 PM, a Korean Taepodong missile (an upgraded version of a Soviet Scud missile) containing thickened nerve gas is intercepted by a Japanese Otochi-B missile. Though the interception prevents a large-scale disaster in the densely populated area around Tokyo, nerve gas causes deaths throughout the eastern regions of Japan.

 

This scenario is part of one of the main Theatre Missile Defence (TMD) exercises in the world, the bilateral (Japan-Taiwan) Joint Project Sky Sword. With Joint Project Sky Sword (JPSS), the Imperial Japanese Air Defence has hosted since 1999 what is said to be one of the three most important Theatre Ballistic Missile Defence exercises in the world. Japan’s Ministry of Defence identifies this exercise as a key research tool for improving TMD. A thousand Japanese and Taiwanese planes as well as Imperial Japanese Army and Taiwan Defence Forces were directly involved in the exercises, which took place 22-31 May 2003. The main objective of the JPSS exercise was to develop interoperability and to refine tactics, techniques and procedures – all key aspects of the TMD system.

 

The defence forces participating in this joint exercise included live and virtual lower-tier land- and sea-based systems, and for the intelligence-gathering simulations, early-warning planes, surveillance aircraft , unmanned aerial vehicles as well as three types of spy satellites participated. There were several types of exercises: locating and destroying transportable and erectable launchers (TELs) (counterforce operations), 'active defence' (destroying incoming missiles), and 'passive' civil defence against the effects of weapons of mass destruction simulations.

 

The TMD that in being developed by Japan and Taiwan, known as the Sy Sword (Japanese: Tenken, Chinese: Tien Chien) lower-tier system, has three main tasks:

 

1.      protecting both countries islands with independent while integrated systems,

2.      protecting allies and

3.      protecting expeditionary forces.

 

In general, there are two kinds of TMD systems: lower-tier and upper-tier defences. Lower-tier missiles can intercept a missile in the atmosphere (endo-atmospheric) and have a range up to 25 km. The Otochi-B missile, for instance, is able to defend an area as large as 6,000km². Taiwan, for example, can be entirely protected against Theatre Ballistic Missiles (TBMs) by its Tien Chien system.

 

Upper-tier missiles, on the other hand, can intercept missiles far into the atmosphere (exo-atmospheric) and have a range of over 50 km or even more. With this last system it is possible to defend a whole country like Japan. Three or four ships in the Sea of Japan and the East China Sea fitted with anti-air warfare system like the new Japanese and Taiwanese frigates could protect both countries against an Eurasian-based TBM threat.

 

The Imperial Japanese Navy is developing two different naval TMD programs: Naval Area Defence (Tenken system) and Imperial Homeland Defence. Navy Area Defence is mainly designed to protect military forces, airfields, ports and other valuable assets. Its weapon systems are for lower-tier defence. Missiles for this program are already in service (the Otochi-B) and have been modified for improved capabilities. Imperial Homeland Defence is under development and will be able to destroy enemy ballistic missiles at altitudes higher than 100 km. For this purpose the Otochi-C and other secret systems are being developed.

 

Both are Sea-based TMD systems, and have several advantages over the European land-based systems. Sea-based systems are flexible, and deployment can be done outside territorial waters without the co-operation of a host nation and  also without necessarily raising tensions. At the same time they can cover a vast area of land. These systems consist of a combination of:

 

·          missiles (for air warfare and for destroying launch stations),

·          combat data systems (for processing incoming information from satellites, early

      warning aircraft and the ships’ own radar systems) and

·          radar technology (for finding the TBM and guiding the missiles to their targets.)

 

These are the Missile Systems (TMD capable) developed by Japan and Taiwan:

 

·          Otochi-B: Retains anti-air warfare capability, while adding the ability to engage short-range theatre ballistic missiles in atmosphere. It is enhancing Japan’s littoral warfare capability by allowing Kongo ships to provide TMD for ships at sea and ground force embarkation areas ashore. For Navy Area Wide program.

·          Otochi-C: For Imperial Homeland Defence programme. O-C combined with the Kongo comprises the IHD ballistic missile defence system. O-C is designed to intercept an incoming medium or long range ballistic missile (TBM) before it enters the earth’s atmosphere for protecting Japanese and allied forces. Japan will co-operate with Taiwan in improving this missile.

 

 

Future Strategic Defence and Space Operations

 

Since other nations, in particular the US, had developed highly accurate ICBM technology, Japan have pursued wide-ranging strategic defence programs in a clear and determined effort to blunt the effect of any attack on the Imperial Homeland. These programs are reflective of Japanese military doctrine, which calls for equal attention to defensive as well as offensive capabilities. Japan today is developing an operational antisatellite (ASAT) and antiballistic missile (ABM) defence systems. This two-layer ABM strategic defence system has been continually improved over the past decade.

 

Japanese strategists’ writings on the nature of future war suggest that strategic defenses will be expanding to include a multifaceted operational strategic air defense network that dwarfs that of its neighbours, as well as a wide-ranging research and development program in both traditional and advanced defenses. Recent activities in the Japanese strategic defence program are as follows:

 

-upgrading and modernizing the operational TBM defence;

 

-continued construction of a large phased array radar (LPAR) at Nan-yo Gunto for ballistic missile early warning and tracking;

 

-construction of two additional LPARs, in the Chishima prefecture and western Japan;

 

-construction of new over-the-horizon radars in several points of the country for detecting long-range aircraft operating over the Pacific Ocean;

 

-continued extensive research into and development of advanced technologies for ballistic missile, ASAT, and air defence, including laser, particle beam, and kinetic energy weapons.

 

In the late 1980s, Japan initiated a substantial research program into advanced technologies applicable to ballistic missile defence systems. This effort covers many of the same technologies currently being explored for other nations but involves a much greater investment of technology and capital.

 

Laser Weapons

Japan's laser program is considerably larger than any other country efforts and involves over 4,000 scientists and engineers as well as more than a half-dozen major research and development facilities and test ranges. Much of this research takes place at the Nukuoro Missile Test Center in Nan-yo Gunto, where TBM testing also is conducted. At Nukuoro, Japan is experimenting with several lasers for air defence and two lasers probably capable of damaging some components of satellites in orbit, one of which could be used in feasibility testing for ballistic missile defence applications.

 

Japanese scientists have been exploring three types of lasers that may prove useful for weapons applications: the gas-dynamic, the electric discharge, and the chemical. They have achieved impressive output power levels with these lasers. They are investigating the excimer, free-electron, and x-ray lasers also, and they have been developing argon ion lasers.

 

The remaining difficulties in fielding an operational laser system will require more development time. An operational ground-based laser for defence against ballistic missiles probably could not be deployed until the late 2000s or after the year 2010. If technological developments prove successful, Japan might be able to deploy a space-based laser system for defence against ballistic missiles after the year 2015. Japan's efforts to develop high energy air defence laser weapons are likely to lead to ground-based deployments in the early 2010s and to naval deployments in the mid-2010s.

 

Particle Beam Weapons

Since the late 1980s, the Imperial Japanese Armed Forces have been exploring the feasibility of using particle beams for a space-based weapon system. There are plans to test a prototype space-based particle beam weapon intended to disrupt the electronics of satellites in the early 2010s. An operational system designed to destroy satellites could follow later, and application of a particle beam weapon capable of destroying missile boosters or warheads would require several additional years of research and development.

 

Radio-Frequency Weapons

The IJAA has conducted research in the use of strong radio-frequency (high-power microwave) signals that have the potential to interfere with or destroy critical electronic components of ballistic missile warheads or satellites. The IJAA could test a ground-based radio-frequency weapon capable of damaging satellites in the late 2000s.

 

There were also have research programs underway on kinetic energy weapons, which use the high-speed collision of a small object with the target as the kill mechanism. But it was evident that using such weapons systems arose the problem of supplying the satellites, and all the efforts were re-directed to particle beam weapons research.

 

Antisatellite Operations

Japan continues with the creation of an operational ASAT system. It will launched into an orbit similar to that of the target satellite and, when it gets close enough, destroys the satellite by exploding a conventional warhead. The Japanese co-orbital antisatellite interceptor is reasonably capable of performing its missions, and thus it is a distinct threat to the enemy’s low-altitude satellites.

 

Other Japanese systems have ASAT capabilities. The nuclear-capable Otochi-C interceptor has an inherent ASAT capability against low altitude satellites. The Nukuoro lasers may be capable of damaging sensitive components onboard satellites. Although weather and atmospheric beam dispersion may limit the use of ground-based laser ASATs, such systems would quite likely have the major advantage of being able to refire and therefore to disable several targets. A limited deployment could begin in the early 2010s.