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The1996 study Close to Home, includes figures which indicate that the St George region tends to reflect more closely State patterns for living situations of older people. For example in 1991, 64% of people over the age of 65 years in NSW lived in a family household (ie with people who are related), 24% lived alone and 2% lived in a group household (ie with people who are unrelated).
In Kogarah, the figures are similar with 64.7% of people over the age of 65 years lived in a family household. 24.7% lived alone and 1.4% lived in group households.
The graph below shows living situations of older people in Kogarah.
PEOPLE WITH DISABILITIES
There are definitional and statistical issues that arise when seeking to get accurate information about people with disabilities. On a statistical level there is a huge discrepancy between estimated persons with a disability and number of persons who are actually in receipt of a disability assistance. Various agencies have different definitions of disability related to the purpose for which that definition arises.
The 1993 ABS survey of disability identified that there were 72,000 people in the St. George area with a disability.
In 1996 it was estimated that 12,000 people or up to one quarter of Kogarah's population are directly affected by difficulties of poor physical access to buildings services and facilities. In 1997, it was estimated that 961 people with disabilities in the Kogarah Council area were receiving some form of assistance from the NSW Ageing and Disability Department and that approximately 900 residents received the disability support pension.
In relation to housing needs, cost of housing is an important issue. The Department of Housing has an eight year waiting list for people with disabilities.
In 1997, a community consultation program was implemented by Kogarah Council. The Kogarah…Keeping in Touch consultation identified the following needs in relation to housing and accommodation:
· the need for more hostel accommodation;
· the need for nursing home developments;
· the need for dementia specific accommodation facilities;
· the need for community living housing for people with intellectual disabilities.
OLDER PERSONS HOUSING DEMAND POTENTIAL
The publication "Strategies for meeting changing housing needs" (to be referred to as Guide for Councils) produced by Planning NSW includes on page 4, Table 1. Older Persons Housing Demand Potential. This table shows that Kogarah Council area is ranked thirty-second (32nd) of forty-six (46) Metropolitan Local Government Areas (referred to as LGAs) ranked by number of people in each age cohort, in terms of demand for aged housing from most to least.
The table indicates that by ranking by age cohorts, Kogarah is below the mean of all Metropolitan Local Government Areas, in terms of demand for older persons housing.
In the 85 and over age cohort, Kogarah is currently ranked nineteenth (19th) from forty-six Metropolitan LGAs. However, the table also reveals that as the age cohorts shift, Kogarah's ranking will decrease over time relative to the rest of Sydney. When Kogarah's 'baby boomers' population, in the 45-54 age cohort, reach "old-old" age cohorts, Kogarah's ranking will decrease to twenty-ninth (29th), which is below the average ranking of LGAs in Sydney. The predicted large increase in demand of an ageing 'baby boomer generation' is not excepted to have such a significant impact on Kogarah, as can be expected in a large proportion of LGAs in Sydney.
The table below shows estimated data based on figures from Planning NSW.
Estimated Resident Population by Age, 20 June 2000 Age Kogarah Proportion 45-54 6,954 13.2% 55-64 4,964 9.4% 65-74 3,954 7.5% 75-84 3,068 5.8% 85+r 1,114 2.1% (Source: Planning NSW analysis of ABS data in "Guide for councils: supporting information")
The table on the next page illustrates how the above data was used to calculate Kogarah's calculation of age cohort movements over time for 2010 and 2020. The figures have been adjusted using estimated death rates based on averaged figures supplied in Guide for Councils. The figures illustrate the expected increase in 'old old' age cohorts, as the 'baby boomer' population shifts.
Calculation of Age Cohort Movements over time taking into account death rates (2020) Age (2000) Census Count (2000) Cohort Shift (2010) Deaths 2010 Adjusted Cohort Shift (2020) Deaths 2020 Adjusted 45-54 6,954 55-64 4,964 6,954 54 6,900 65-74 3,954 4,964 109 4,855 6,900 152 6,749 75-85 3,068 3,954 248 3,706 4,855 304 4,550 85+ 1,114 3,068 649 2,419 3,706 951 2,755 1,114 2,419
The table below illustrates the calculation of age cohort movements over time taking into account death rates for 2006 and 2016, using ABS 1996 census data. Note: the age cohorts available from 1996 Census data are different from those in the table above. Several cohorts have been collapsed into larger age cohorts.
Calculation of Age Cohort Movements over time taking into account death rates (2016) Age Census Count (1996) Cohort Shift (2006) Deaths 2006 Adjusted Cohort Shift (2016) Deaths 2016 Adjusted 25-39 11,043 8,165 7 8,158 0 0 0 40-54 9,416 11,043 25 11,018 8,158 19 8,139 55-64 4,233 9,416 73 9,343 11,018 85 10,933 65-74 4,134 4,233 93 4,140 9,343 205 9,138 75+ 3,683 7,817 852 6,965 4,140 1,210 9,895 6,965
KOGARAH'S ESTIMATED DEMAND FOR INDEPENDENT LIVING According to Guide for Councils, each council area should aim to satisfy the demand for housing of 20% of 55-74 year olds seeking more manageable forms of housing. The table below reveals that it is estimated that approximately 4,014 people will be seeking more manageable forms of housing by 2016.
Kogarah's Estimated Demand for Independent Living in 2010, 2016 Age adjusted 2010 2016 55-64 6,900 10,933 65-74 4,855 9,138 total 11,755 20,071 20% 2,351 4,014
DEMAND FOR LOW CARE ASSISTED LIVING/CONGREGATE HOUSING - (RESIDENTIAL CARE FACILITIES/HOSTELS)
According to Guide for Councils, each council area should aim to provide opportunities for the development of low care assisted living/congregate housing (residential care facilities/hostels) for at least 5% of the population in the 70-85 year old age group. The given age cohort differs from the available figures. The figures in the table on the next page were calculated using age cohorts 75+. The table reveals that it is estimated that approximately 495 people will be seeking low care assisted living or congregate housing by 2016.
Estimated demand for low care assisted living/congregate housing - (residential care facilities/hostels) in 2016 Age adjusted 2016 75+ 9,895 5% 495
DEMAND FOR HIGH CARE RESIDENTIAL FACILITIES
According to Guide for Councils, each council area should aim to provide opportunities for the development of high care residential facilities.
Demand for high care residential facilities Demand for high care residential facilities % 2016 2020 Age Cohort (75+) (75-85) 75-79 9% 891 410 80-84 18.30% 85+ 34.9% 332 Total 891 742 Figures for high care are difficult to calculate, as figures quoted do not equate with the cohort categories on available statistics. The available age cohorts have been calculated with the minimum percentage of estimated demand. Therefore it is estimated, based on available figures that Kogarah's possible need for high care residential facilities is approximately 891 people by year 2016. The estimated figure for year 2020 illustrates a drop in demand. The demand rates are likely to reduce, if health levels improve as is forecast.
HOW DOES SEPP 5 DEVELOPMENT IN KOGARAH ADDRESS THE NEEDS OF OLDER PEOPLE OR PEOPLE WITH A DISABILITY?
In recent years, all SEPP 5 housing has been multi unit housing in the Residential 2(a) Residential Low Density Zone.
The type of developments provided under SEPP 5 have not addressed the identified specialised needs of either older people or people with disabilities any more than any other form of medium density developments in the Kogarah Council area. None of the recent developments provide on site support services and facilities. None have been designed to meet the needs of any particular group.
Because the developments have been in the low-density zone, they have been further away from shopping, health services and transport than most other multi-unit housing in Kogarah.
SEPP 5 permits multi unit housing in zones which might otherwise prohibit housing for older people and people with a disability. However, Kogarah Council's LEP expressly provides for such housing in a number of zones and permits other forms of more specialised housing that meets the needs of older people or people with a disability (see below).
As can be seen from the supply figures above, only 69 additional dwellings have been added to the housing stock under SEPP 5 since 1995. The contribution of SEPP 5 to meeting the housing needs of older people or people with a disability in the Kogarah area has thus been small.
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