nytimes

October 7, 1999

Israel Changes Its Style in South Lebanon

By DEBORAH SONTAG

JERUSALEM -- The operational nature of the chronic low-level warfare in southern Lebanon has markedly changed over two months as both Israeli and Shiite Muslim guerrillas look ahead to the Israeli troop withdrawal pledged by Prime Minister Ehud Barak.

Israel has increased its bombing of suspected guerrilla targets in response to an intensification of attacks by Party of God forces, military officials say. By Wednesday afternoon, Israeli planes had carried out six air strikes in 24 hours.

Israel has also scaled back deployment of ground troops with the specific aim of avoiding casualties, even if it means forgoing attacks that would inflict damage on the guerrillas.

In an unusual concession on Wednesday, the Army Chief of Staff, Lieut. Gen. Shaul Mofaz, acknowledged a new reticence to take risks, saying he preferred to "keep our losses down" and "kill fewer Hezbollah fighters" if it meant protecting more Israeli soldiers from danger.

Israeli military officials also said they had reduced the use of ground troops because new technology had improved their weapons' accuracy.

"What we are really doing is introducing technologies that partially substitute for the physical presence of soldiers," Deputy Defense Minister Ephraim Sneh said in an interview. "The bottom line is that it has improved the efficiency of our presence in southern Lebanon. We can stave off the guerrillas from our border with a lower price."

It is unclear whether that amounts to a tailored strategy of preparation for Barak's promise to pull out of southern Lebanon by next summer. Some military experts suggested Wednesday that the change could represent nothing more than the latest tactical shift in a 21-year-old conflict.

It is difficult, however, not to see the move as a shift of tactics geared to a political goal. It is undeniable that the Army, like it or not, is facing a nine-month deadline for withdrawal, as Barak moves to extricate Israel from an unpopular and seemingly unwinnable fight.

Barak's pledge to bring home the boys was a centerpiece of his campaign, and some experts said they believed that it catapulted him to his overwhelming victory in May. But he did make the pledge on the assumption that he would quickly renew a dialogue with Syria, which effectively controls Lebanon and holds sway over the guerrillas. And that renewal has yet to happen, at least openly. Back-channel conversations through third parties, including the Americans, have been held.

But for political reasons, Barak seems to consider himself bound to withdraw anyway, even without Syria's help. Last week, when Dr. Sneh suggested that the deadline need not be rigid, Barak sent a pager message to Israeli reporters in 25 minutes, distancing himself from the comment.

The Israeli Defense Forces did not fulfill a request today to release full statistics on the air strikes. But Yediot Ahronot, one of top three newspapers in the country, reported on Tuesday that the air force had conducted 100 sorties in Lebanon in the past month. The newspaper called that a record number and said the bombing had intensified since June, when Israel, in retaliation for rockets fired at northern settlements, conducted its most severe bombing of Lebanon since 1996.

The paper also quoted senior officers in Lebanon who said neither Israeli troops nor special units had been sent on ambushes or offensives deep in Lebanon "for some time."

In describing the army's approach, Dr. Sneh said: "The policy is very prudent, not in the sense of cautious, but clever. We are not going toward danger. When there is something efficient, we do it. And we have had some nice successes destroying the artillery of the Hezbollah in the last couple of months."

Israel first sent troops to Lebanon in 1978 to attack Palestinian guerrillas. Since 1985, it has occupied a nine-mile-deep border zone in southern Lebanon, to protect its northern towns from attack. But the steady loss of Israeli soldiers and the poor prospects of an end to the conflict have embittered many Israelis.

Israel has lost 13 soldiers in Lebanon this year. In 1998, 23 died in the conflict, and in 1997, 39 were killed, not including 73 who died in a helicopter crash.

Brig. Gen. Shlomo Brom, who recently published a study on Israel's engagement in Lebanon for the Tel Aviv University Jaffe Center for Strategic Studies, said the army was indeed improving its ability to use aerial force, particularly by becoming quicker to locate guerrilla strongholds and retaliate.

But he said:

"I'm afraid it's not the end of the story. Hezbollah will now look for tactics that will make it less vulnerable to airborne attacks, and then we're back to the drawing board.

"There is no silver bullet that will allow us to withdraw to the international border and have everything be O.K. Prime Minister Barak is a very intelligent person with vast military experience, and I can't imagine he's thinking in such simplistic terms."