in the NFL regular season, I thought I'd do a quick wrap up to show you how much I suck at picking teams.
In the AFC East I picked (in order) the Pats (13-3), the Fish (11-5), the Bills (6-10) and Jets (2-14) when in reality the Pats are 10-4, Jets 8-6, Buffalo 7-7 and Miami is eliminated from postseason play at 6-8. Obviously the biggest disappointment has come from the lack of big-time play of Miami and Culpepper's inability to stay healthy or competitive. Though the defense has been pretty solid, their offensive lacking was way too substantial. But I must give credit to where credit is due and at 8-6, the Jets are in a 4 way tie for the AFC wild-card.... a phenomenal feat for a team that has struggled in recent years.
In the AFC North I took the Steelers (12-4), Bengals (11-5), Ravens (5-11) and the Browns (3-13). My obvious mistake was placing took much confidence on the shoulders of Roethlisberger after his off season of terror. The Steelers (currently 7-7) struggled early in the season on offense, defense and in controlling turnovers and now it seems too late to make a run at the playoffs. Very few picked Baltimore (11-3) to win the division this year and most of my apprehension came from the questionable performance of McNair and whether or not the defense could stay healthy. With both of those qualms settled, look for this team to be hot at home in the playoffs. Cincinnati (8-6) is still trying to prove that last year's record wasn't a fluke and Palmer is still trying to get his surgery behind him. And the Browns (4-10).... well they suck.
I'm most confident in my AFC South Picks: Indy (14-2), Jags (11-5), Titans (6-10) and Texans (2-14). Indy (currently 11-3) has faltered in the past few weeks but rebounded Monday Night against the Bengals to clinch the division and start a run at home field advantage. They are a solid team on defense and can be explosive under the guidance of Manning. Jacksonville (8-6) has been one of those teams that will surprise you one week with phenomenal play but then stink up the field only seven days later. They are inconsistent and that is their weakness. If they manage to squeeze in as the 6th seed look for their postseason to be short lived. Originally I had the Titans (7-7) finishing 2nd in the AFC South and for obvious reasons... they are finally starting to gel on the field and the offense is coming together. 2006 has been a rebuilding year, but nonetheless, look for the Titans to come out hot in '07. Again, the Texans (4-10)... the suck too. Its hard to win games when your point difference is over 100.
In the AFC West I took Denver winning the shebang at 13-3, the Chargers in second at 10-6 then KC and Oakland finishing out at 7-9 and 5-11. If LT stays healthy and Philips stays cool, we could easily see the Chargers (12-2) advancing through the playoffs to the Super Bowl. Keep in mind they have great chance of winning home field advantage and that they are undefeated at home this season and you've got quite a playoff picture forming. These last two games will be a test for Cutler and the Broncos (8-6). Even if Denver finishes at 8-8 they can feel confident as long as Cutler goes out with a decent (90.0 or above) QB rating. And the Chiefs (7-7) have, like the Jags, been too inconsistent to be much of a threat. Randy Moss should start raising hell over in the bay, cause the Raiders (2-12) definitely need some help next year.
Because I don't really care about the NFC I'll just wrap up my picks:
East
I picked Giants 11-5, Skins 9-7, Cowboys 8-8, Philly 5-11.... This division is ridiculous... Dallas is right now 9-5, Philly is 8-6 and the Giants are 7-7 and all three have decent shots at the postseason... I have mercy and will do nothing more than state the skins' record: 5-9.
North
I took Chicago 11-5, Vikings 10-6, Packers 7-9 and Lions 3-13... Put too much faith in the Vikings to play solid D and put up points.... by the way NFC North Record vs AFC Teams: 4-12. Chicago has all but locked a Super Bowl Berth at 12-2, the only NFC team with more than 10 wins, the Packers and Vikings struggle at 6-8 and the Lions may hit my prediction exactly. They are 2-12.
South
I picked the Looked-Good-On-Paper-Panthers to win it all at 14-2, Atlanta to follow at 9-7, tied with the Bucs and the Saints, whose defense I was wary in, to finish at 4-12. I would like to mention that my one surprise team in the NFC was the Saints.... and what a surprise they have been. At 9-5 they have locked up the division and Brees looks to break Marino's season yardage record. Atlanta is in the thick of the NFC playoff race at 7-7, with Carolina "Can't Play 4th Qtr Football" at 6-8 and the Bucs at 3-11.
West
Took Seattle at 11-5, Arizona at 9-7, Rams at 5-11 and the 49ers at 2-14. The 49ers (6-8) have shocked me this season and are still eligible to win the division! How crazy is that?!? Seattle, even with its top guns healthy, doesn't look like the team of '05 and at 8-6 is struggling to win this tight division. The Rams enjoyed early success but then faltered and also sit at 6-8. Arizona, like Miami, became a huge bust for a lot of people and at 4-10 can officially call this year the "rebuilding year."
With only 6 of the 12 playoff spots locked up by Week 15, I look forward to watching the last two weeks of the season develop.... who really wants to be play football in January? I can't wait to find out.
Go Steelers!