Independents
rush for power..
When Venezuela's president-elect comes into office at the start of 1999, he will have a handful coaxing the once prosperous oil economy back on track.
Combating inflation, corruption and high interest rates compares with the worst most Latin American leaders have to handle. But dealing with lower oil prices, a shrinking tax base and a more vocal and dis-satisfied populace sets Venezuela apart.
There are still new reasons for concern by local and international
investors. Initially dismissed as a longshot, the successful presidential
election campaign of former coup leader and army general, Hugo
Chavez continues to shock international financiers. Particularly
disturbing is his support from lower income earners and much of
the population in the rural areas which have been ignored by previous
regimes.
The local stock market took it well though, as the market gained
a modest 3 percent after his victory was confirmed in on December
8.
Charges of corruption and mis-appropriation of public funds was
the key issues which drove former President Rafael Caldera out
of office. This leadership void has led to an unprecidented scramble
for power by many of the country's independent candidates.
New candidates
Even candidates who were considered to be 'long-shots' threw their hats into the ring as strong contenders for the post. This trend is more visible at the local government and parliamentary level where many of the new candidates would not normally get a second look from the electorate.
More importantly, the election took a lot of strength from Venezuela's
two traditional parties, Acción Democrática (AD)
and Copei. Their ability to frustrate the strategies of the new
president was severely limited as they continue to operate in
a political environment that is increasingly dominated by independents
in the congress.
The regional and legislative elections were originally scheduled
to take place simultaneously with the presidential contest on
December 6. However, because of the weight of the independent's
push, the AD and Copei, joined forces to push through a bill in
congress to separate the two events. The assumption is that the
strength of their party `machines' should be enough to push their
own candidates over the top rather than have the presidency fall
into the hands of an independent.
They hoped that a string of victories in the local elections in
November might give them a better chance to weigh in at the December
contest, or at least give them a respectable foothold in congress.
At press time the final results were still pending but opinion
polls suggest that they may be partially right. AD is expected
to win in 12 to 15 of the 23 gubernatorial races, improving on
the 11 they won in 1995. Most of the rest are expected to go to
Copei. However, there are several borderline cases, where alliances
between other parties have split the votes to provide serious
challenges.
Their efforts were in vain as the expected AD victories are mostly
in the least populous states, and will therefore have little influence
on the presidential election. Also, local analysts say that victories
by the two traditional parties will tend to reflect the prestige
of individual governors rather than support for their parties.
Opinion polls however, are not all that reliable here, because
Venezuela, with the current proliferation of independents, is
entering uncharted territory.
Decisive outcome
In many ways, the outcome of the the legislative elections
will be decisive.
Forced to acknowledge the strength of the independent movement
or face defeat, the two main parties shed their own candidates
and threw their support for second placed candidate Römer,
rather than bow to a Chavez victory.
What is significant, is that pollsters suggest that Hugo Chávez's
followers may win the senate. There is also considerable agreement
that some groups may be virtually wiped out, like Irene Sáez's
original base, IRENE, and Convergencia, the vehicle used by Rafael
Caldera for his successful presidential bid.
Many expect that left-of-centre parties such as the Movimiento
al Socialismo (MAS), Patria para Todos (PPT) and Causa Radical
will suffer losses. The big questions, though, are what size of
a congressional base AD and Copei will retain, and how much of
a base the two main contenders, Hugo Chávez and presidential
favorite Henrique Salas Römer, will be able to build.
Executive Time "Online" also has a printed version
which is available throughout the Caribbean and some selected
North American cities.
For information about subscriptions and advertising for both the "Online" and in the printed version.
