A Sketch for Futuristics
Historians are fond of saying that the study of the past can help us to understand the future. We agree and point out that all our ideas about the future necessarily come from the past, not the future itself, for the very simple reason that the future, by definition, has never existed. What has happened in the past is our only source of guidance to what may happen in the future.
Futuristics might even be defined as "applied history". It picks up where history leaves off. Futurists are not content with just understanding what has happened in the past; they want to use their knowledge to develop an understanding of future possibilities. Futurists emphasize that the future, not the past, is the focus of human action, and that the value of the past is that it can be used to illustrate the future.
But how can the past be used to study the future? One way is to assume that conditions that have existed in the past will continue into the future. This is the "Principle of Continuity". If we follow this principle, we anticipate that the future will remain the same or it will continue to change in the same way it now observed to be changing. The Principle of Continuity allows us to believe that the Java Sea will be in its customary place in the year 2050 and that the world's population in the year 2050 will be far higher that it is now.
The second principle, which may be called the "Principle of Analogy," is based on our observation that certain patterns of event recur from time to time. If we observe an event that we believe is like a certain preceding event, we may forecast that the new event will be followed by certain other events similar to those that occurred after the similar, previously observed event. When the mercury in a barometer falls, we forecast that a storm may be coming. There are also "leading indicators" in the business cycle. The Principle of Analogy can also be applied in politics; for example, a new situation may be described as a "G 30 S", thereby suggesting that it may be followed by consequences similar to the appeasement of the Indonesian communists in 1966.
Knowledge of the past does not automatically become knowledge of the future. Knowledge of the future must be created by using data obtained in the past as raw material for fashioning ideas about the future. In fashioning such ideas, we use a number of mental tools as well as our experience with using the tools. The tools are concepts and theories that "work" for us. In our thought processes we also use our own desires, because a primary purpose of our thoughts is to decide what would really please us, so that we can take action to achieve it.
Our desires are not the only force affecting our choice of the memories that fill our thoughts. We also are exposed to an incredible barrage of sensory data from our present environment. These external stimuli have an immediacy and urgency that is generally lacking in the data stored in our brains. Sensory data also help shape the ideas that we have about the future. For example, if we happen to overhear someone say something interesting we may quickly decide to say something in response.
When we try to think seriously about what might happen in the future, we face a certain dilemma. Everything that we know is derived from the past. If we wish to think about what might please us in the future, we find that the only happen situations we can readily imagine are variations on those that we experienced in the past or that we have heard about someone else experiencing. It is very difficult to do much more than try various combinations of images stored in our memory; we cannot easily leap outside our memories and seize something truly new. There is one way, however, to develop ideas that are not based simply on memories and logical connections: We can exploit the chance connection of thought that ordinarily are kept separate. Two memories that normally reside in separate compartments in our minds can--through the operation of chance--come together and form a new idea. Chance allows to develop concepts that are beyond the power of memory, logic and desire. The importance of chance events may seem strange, yet human beings owe their very existence to the operations of chance. We are the result of billions of years during which chance combination of events, even of atoms and molecules and genes were seized upon and utilized.
Chance is an essential element in creativity. In trying to develop a new idea that might be used in writing a poem, developing a scientific theory, or imagining a new business, a person needs to do two things: (1) provide his mind with the needed structure, that is, familiarize himself with the problem and information that might be used in fashioning useful solutions and (2) introduce into his thinking an element of chance. Normally, this element of chance is provided by the events of everyday life. Unrelated events push the conscious mind in new directions so that a new connection is made and a new idea is born. The new idea is tested mentally; if it seems to work well, the person becomes exalted: he has just had "a good idea."
Creativity allows us to generate ideas about what might be in the future--things that otherwise would be unimaginable. With creativity, we can fashion possible future worlds that have never existed, but that we might choose to build. Read D.S. Halacy's work, Science and Serepindity: Great Discoveries by Accident, 1967, and you will be amazed how many scientific discoveries were done just by the operation of chance! Creativity cannot give us knowledge about the future, but it can help us to discover new concepts about things that might be possible. In effect, creativity helps us to use the past in new ways to discover the possibilities of the future.
Few people think of themselves as forecasters, yet all of us are constantly making forecasts. If we did not do so, our lives would be impossible. If we want to talk to someone, we dial a certain sequence of numbers, because we believe that we do so we may soon a reasonable chance of accomplishing our purpose by following a certain series of actions.
Much of our everyday forecasting is so routine that we do not even recognize that it involves a constant series of exercises in futuristics, that is exploration of the future aimed at helping us decide what to do. But when we move beyond our everyday situation into the more distant future, we become less sure of ourselves and more self-conscious about our "futurizing."
Forecasting may be viewed as the purest form of futuristics, but there are other activities that are closely related and often intertwined with forecasting. Once such activity is goal-setting--deciding which possibilities we want to realize rather that those that are likely to occur. Another related activity is planning--setting forth the steps needed to reach our goals. Futuristics logically precedes goal-setting, that is, we identify possible goals before deciding which to try to realize. Planning logically follows goal-setting: After a goal is determined, we set forth cost effective series of steps to realize it. In actual practice, however, futuristics, goal-setting, and planning tend to become highly intermingled, and many of the same tools are used in all three. Among the tools are mechanical devices like computers as well as procedures like Delphi polls. Confusing the situation further is the fact that one class of forecasting techniques--the so-caled "normative methods"--is goals as basis for forecasts, thus reversing the "normal" sequence of moving from futuristics to goal setting to planning (Consider our PJPT's!).
Trends Extrapolation: A Method Everyone Uses
The simplest assumption about the future that we can make is that the future will be exactly like the past: things will remain as they are. The next simplest assumption is that things will change in the same ways they have changed in the past, that is, a change that has been observed in the past will continue into the future. If the population of a city is known to be increasing at the rate of 2% a year, we assume that it will continue to do so in the future, and we can use simple arithmetic to calculate what the population will be in five years. In other words, we can generate a forecast by observing a change through time in the character of something and projecting (extrapolating) that change into the future. In making a forecast, we naturally disregard shrot-term changes or fluctuations, such as the swelling of city's population each morning as people come to work. What is important is the longer-term change, that is, the trend.
Trend extrapolation is one of the most commonly used ways to generate a forecast. City planners, economists, demographers, and many other specialists constantly extrapolate trends--consciously or unconsciously--when we think about the future. So, too, do ordinary people. Assuming that the future will be like the past or the past changes will continue in the same direction and rate is a perfectly sensible way to begin trying to understand the future. It should not, however, be the end of our endeavors, because trend extrapolation can be very misleading. For example, we might estimate that a child aged four has grown at the rate of five inches a year, and then calculate that this rate of growth means he will be more than 13 feet tall at the age of 34! We would not accept this forecast, because we know that human beings--of which the child is an example--never grow that tall. Long before he reaches the age of 34, we forecast, his rate of growth will slow and eventually halt at a height that will probably be somewhere between five feet and six and a half feet. In making this forecast, we have, of course, shifted from the Principle of Continuity to the Principle of Analogy.
This slowing down of growth is frequently encountered among living things: an organism or a colony of bacteria will grow rapidly for a time and then its growth will slow and eventually stop. If growth did not stop, the organism or bacteria would eventually become bigger than the world itself--and extrapolating still further, bigger than the solar system and universe!
A new technology may exhibit a growth curve strikingly similar to those found in biology. When railroads were first developed in the early 19th century, they found many customers eager for rapid, inexpensive transportation. Railroads developed rapidly during the 19th century, but the 20th century their growth slowed because they began to saturate their market and because new competition appeared in the form of automobiles, trucks, and airplanes.
But sometimes growth does not follow the pattern we expect. Just when we expect growth to slow--or even when it has actually started to slow--it suddenly picks up again. Such situations have occurred in the history of technology, and when we consider the nature of technological development, we can understand why, in most technologies, many technical approaches are tried. Each approach encounters limitations, but just when the technology itself might seem to be encountering an insurmountable obstacle, a new technology arrives to keep the technology improving.
But will technology really improve fast enough? No one knows for sure, since the factors that control the development of technology are not clearly understood. Optimists can point to the steady improvement of technology--and with technology the standard of living. Pessimists can stress the ominous parallel to the growth of biological system. A practical policy-maker might take account of both positions by adopting measures aimed at (1) reducing the rate of population growth, (2) developing new technology that will be less harmful to the environment, (3) encouraging the development of life-styles that are not costly in environmental terms, and (4) encouraging technology that can raise the standard of living without also damaging the environment. Fortunately, the four points. Fortunately, the four points above have been adopted by the Indonesian Government.
Scenarios: Making Up Stories about the Future
A scenario may sound exotic in our discussion of futuristics, but in its simplest form, it is very common. It is simply a series of events that we imagine happening in the future. Our everyday thinking is filled with little ventures into the mysterious world of tomorrow, or next week, or next year. And those ventures are scenarios, though rarely as well developed as the elaborate scenarios prepared by professional researches working for government agencies, the military, and commercial enterprises.
A scenario begins when we ask: "What would happen if such-and-such occurred?" For example, "What would happen if we went to the theater on Saturday night?" Once this question is posed, we can begin to imagine the various consequences of the event. First, certain preparations would be necessary for this event to occur; for example there would be the need for transportation to the theater. In addition, if the event does occur, there will be additional consequences, such as being absent from home at a time when we anticipate that a relative might come.
In our minds, we may develop a large number of scenarios in an effort to decide whether or not to go to the theater on Saturday night. We develop these scenarios intuitively, however, discuss them with each other and with friends.
What Does a Scenario Do for Us?
First, it makes us aware of potential problems that might occur if we were to take the proposed action. We can then (1) abandon the proposed action or (2) prepare to take precautions that will minimize the problems that might result.
Second, the scenario gives us an opportunity to escape from a potentially disastrous action--or to realize a tremendous opportunity. Either eventuality may be tentatively identified by developing a number of scenarios. For example, as we develop a scenario we begin to think about how to get to the theater and how to get back. As we review in our minds the various alternative means of transportation, we recognize that the brakes on our automobile are defective. If we rake the car to the repair shop today, it will be ready in time for our excursion to the theater. Otherwise, we might find ourselves using it on Saturday despite its unsafe condition, and possibly having a fatal accident.
Third, the scenario can mobilize others--get them involved in assessing a situation and planning action. People tend to become more involved in a situation when they are faced with a concrete choice. At hat point, they must think about consequences and are led into the various aspects of the problem.
The act of developing a scenario in a think-tank may differ very little in essence from the scenario-preparation that all of us do in our minds everyday. However, a policy analyst generally prepares his scenario more carefully and writes it down so that other analysts can review and comment on it. Moreover, unlike the fiction writer, the police analyst is generally not concerned with literary embellishments, but simply with identifying potential events that could have an impact on the situation he is studying.
Writing a scenario is not a difficult task. All that is required is imagination and familiarity with the situation for
which one wishes to write a scenario. A person wishing to probe the future of the political and energy situation in Indonesia and its possible consequences might begin by assuming that the Indoensian Government's energy/political policies will not remain essentially unchanged from that they were in the first PJPT (Long Term Planning) and then proceed to imagine what might happen on the basis oh known trends. Here is how a scenario might look.
Indonesian Political/Energy Scenario Based on Known Trends (1985-1990)
When we develop a scenario, we free ourselves from strict bondage to the past. No longer are we assuming that the future will be like the past except more so (as in trend extrapolation). Instead, we have begun to see the future as offering a wide variety of possibilities. Furthermore, the realization of these possibilities may hinge on dicision that we ourselves make. The future now is realm of infinite possibilities, may of which may never have occurred in the past. The scenario is not just a means of exploring possible interactions of various events, but a way that we can shape the future. The typical scenario indicates, in fact, a number of points where human decisions will be made, and how these decisions will affect later events.
Scenario-writing introduces imagination and creativity into the toolbox of futuristics, and the creativity enlarging techniques, discussed earlier, may legitimately be used in developing scenarios. If we are seriously interested in exploring the future we must make a special effort to look at "far-out" possibilities, because one of the few things that we can be sure about is that the future will be filled with them.
References
Bell, Daniel. 1973. The Coming of Post-Industrial Society: A Venture In Social Forecasting. New York: Basic Books.
De Jouvenel, Bertrand. 1964. The Art of Conjecture. New York: Basic Books.
Helbroner, Robert L. 1974. An Inquiry into the Human Prospect. New York: W.W. Norton.
Kauffman, Draper L., Jr. 1976. Teaching the Future: A Guide to Future Oriented Education. Palm Springs: ETC Publications.
LaConte, Ronald T. and La Conte, Ellen. 1975. Teaching Tomorrow Today: A Guide to Futuristics. New York: Bantam.
Naisbitt, John. 1986. Megatrends. New York: Warner Books, Inc.
Schumacher, E.F. 1973. Small is Beautiful: Economics as if People Mattered. New York: Harper and Row.
Shane, Harold G. 1974. The Educational Significance of the Future. Bloomington: Chi Delta Kappa Foundation.
Djojohadikusumo, Sumitro. 1977. Science, Resources and Development Selected Essays. Jakarta: Intermasa.
Dolman, Anthony J. 1976. RIO: Reshaping the International Order, a Report to the Club of Rome. New York: Dutton.
Toffler, Alvin. 1970. Future Shock. New York: Random House.
Toffler, Alvin. 1980. The Third Wave. London: Pan Books.
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The foregoing scenario suggest how a government policy (or-non-policy) can have constructive or disastrous consequences that may not be anticipated by the policymakers. Putting all the facts together gives us a rather hopeful or terrifying scenario that suggests alternative series of consequences of decisions being made today. By identifying the possible consequences now, we can take action to make them less likely.
Samsuri, lecturer at the Faculty of Letters, Universitas 17 Agustus 1945 Surabaya.