That's 583 days, 14 hours, 26 minutes until … The Year 2000. The projector screen at the fromnt of the conference room had a live countdown clock running in the background as the two-day "Arab-Y2K" conference opened 27 June at the Gezirah Sheraton Hotel.
The conference, billed as "The (first) Arab Strategic Conference and Exhibition for Managing the Year 2000 Computer Crisis" was organized by the Arabian Scientific Information Co. SHUA’A in cooperation with the Arab Management Society. It was attended by over 300 businessmen, government employees and technology consultants from Egypt and five Arab countries (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Jordan, Libya and Bahrain).
Opening remarks were made by Nasim Smadi, General manager of SHUA'A who welcomed the speakers and attendees and highlighted the presence of such a large number of professionals that share the feeling of urgency needed to address the Y2K Crisis and to act immediately to minimize its effects.
A management problem rather than a technical one
Egypt may be a little behind some other countries in getting started addressing the Y2K issues but the conference speakers made it clear that the problem is well known and very serious.
Dr. Ali El-Salmy the chairman of the Arab Management Society emphasized that the Y2K problem is "a management problem and is not a computer problem". It is about business survival not about Information Technology (IT) management. The message was unanimous with most of the speakers stressing the same themes: "The time to act is now - we are possible already too late", "No one is immune - everyone will be affected in some way", and "the three most important aspects are testing, testing and testing."
Dr. Moustafa Kamel, manager of Technology Development Program of the Information and Decision Support Center (IDSC) presented a paper entitled "The Year 2000 problem: the biggest challenge in the last decade of the 20th century". Dr. Kamel stated that while the cost of mitigating the effects is estimated by 1.3 trillion dollar worldwide and 1 trillion dollar in lawsuits, the cost of not doing anything will be much higher.
Egypt forms Ministerial Committee to address Y2K
Dr. Kamel reported that the Egyptian government has formed a high ministerial committee consisting of seven ministers, the governor of Central Bank of Egypt and four IT professionals. The committee is headed by the Minister of Communication and Transportation.
Also established is a Technical Advisory Committee, assisted by a team of experts from Egypt's universities, which will make regular progress reports to the Y2K Ministerial committee.
Y2K is to be declared a high national priority and a Crisis Management project headed by the Central Agency for Population Mobilization and Statistics (CAPMAS) began in June 1998. National Legislation changes affecting Y2K are expected to take place by the end of this year. The national plans call for action to renovate equipment and systems of mission critical services and essential private sector entities before June 1999, allowing a period for testing during the 2nd half of 1999.
Y2K Cost in Egypt estimated at 2 billion pounds
"The cost of mitigating the Y2K problem worldwide is estimated by 1.3 trillion US dollars with an additional 1 trillion dollars in lawsuits expected. The cost in Egypt alone is estimated at 2 billion pounds. The cost is expected to increase as the year 2000 becomes closer" said Dr. Kamel.
Testing takes longer than expected
One of the guest presenters, North America, was Mr. Jim Grant, a Year 2000 consultant from C.G. Games and Associates, who said he was impressed with the attendance and professionalism of the conduct of the conference. "This is a real conference, that shows it (Y2K) is being taken seriously in Egypt".
Grant has worked with several large clients in Canada and the US, and is part of an Executive Advisory Panel which deals with Information Technology ad Information Management Issues and reports to the Government Advisory office of the US, "our last two meetings have been mostly about Y2K."
Grant said that even the well managed companies which have started Y2K remediation projects are facing difficulties in scheduling, "testing is taking 2 to 4 times as long as anyone had planned for". This means the Egyptian plan for testing in the last half of 1999 leaves little room for contingencies.
Threat to Embedded Systems highlighted
Embedded systems, that is machines, manufacturing devices, cars and practically anything electromechanical with microchips inside also got a lot of attention at Arab-Y2K. There are millions of embedded systems in Egypt, including many in the infrastructure systems of Telecommunications and Electricity. Unless these systems are checked, the entire power grid could be at risk. And there are embedded systems in many devices where we might not be expecting them: security systems, bank vaults, elevators, hospital systems and Global Positioning Systems are just a few examples. These systems are very hard to test and require specialist on each type of equipment. But the main problem, the presenters said, was finding the embedded systems, making even this very technical area more of a business and management challenge than a technical one.
Good news/ bad news
Another of the highlights of the first day's session included a presentation by Shell Egypt explaining the successful ongoing company wide effort required to attack the Year 2000 problem. Khaled Sheta, General Manager of Information Systems for Shell Egypt concluded that Y2K is a "non negotiable business challenge, with a non-negotiable deadline".
Another presentation included a scary English-language film that predicted more and more disasters, company shutdowns, and grounded aircraft as Year 2000 approached.
SHUA'A says Arab-Y2K was a success
Project Manager for the Arab-Y2K conference, Wafiq Ezzedin was very pleased with the conference, "the turnout is very good, all of the presenters have been excellent and done what they promised. They have been clear and to the point. Even one of our exhibitors offering a Y2K solution, told me he was very glad to attend the first session and hear the lectures".
One thing is for sure, the Year 2000 problem is real and time is short. It has a deadline that cannot be moved and the clock continues to tick, the conference ended at 582 days 7:00 hours … until Y2K-day.
PC World Egypt will be following the Year 2000 issue and reporting on worldwide and local activities in our regular feature "Y2K Watch" beginning in our next issue.
Kilen Matthews, is a international IT and Year 2000 consultant for Y2KEgypt (http://www.y2kegpyt.com) and can be reached by email at KM@y2kegypt.com.
