Countdown to Y2: Ready - Set - Fail ! ... Plan for it.
If, like most people, you missed the early warning about the Year 2000 problem you have a second chance - sort of - to catch up and get ready for the essential challenges of the Y2K problem..
When the "dreaded computer consultants" started telling everyone about the Y2K problem a couple of years ago, most businesses and organizations scoffed or laughed at the idea of it being a "real" problem. However, some took it seriously.
Now, very few people are saying the Y2K problem is no big deal. So what can we learn from that experience? The ones who recognized the problem have "lessons learned" that you can use to make the best use of what time is left.
Moreover, it is a good idea to see what those "ahead of the pack" organizations are doing NOW, that you should be doing. If not, history will likely repeat itself and you'll be behind schedule facing the next big Y2K crisis: Y2K Specific Contingency Planning.
In previous columns, I've talked about the phases of dealing with the Year 2000 Problem: Denial, Fear and finally, Realism (I'm hoping I can drop "Panic" off the end of my list). We face the same delays in getting organizations to deal with the need for Y2K Contingency Planning.
Hard as it is to believe, the same people who were in denial when the Y2K problem was first raised are now doing the same thing about Y2K contingency planning!
Y2K Contingency Planning Denial Argument #1:
"We'll fix our Y2K problem"
"We're working on the Year 2000 Problem and we'll get it fixed. We've made it a priority, staffed it and funded it and our President / Chairman / Fearless Leader is on the team..."
So what? So you'll do a good - maybe world class - job of assessing, remediating, testing (ha!) and implementing your Y2K fixes. Even the best organizations in the world have a 5 % error rate in their system implementations. Something is still going to break. What percent of implementations do you get done perfectly - and on time?
No widget-maker is an island...
Even if YOU do everything right and get everything fixed in time, what
about your business partners, suppliers, shippers, and customers? What
if THEY have crucial business functions affected by Y2K?
You have a problem if any of your mission critical business processes are affected by Y2K failures in your systems or those of other organizations.
Y2K Contingency Planning Denial Argument #2:
"We already have contingency/backup plans"
"We have contingency plans for each of our mission critical systems..."
So did the city of San Francisco in early December, 1998, when a major backup system, designed to carry the electrical load if San Francisco lost its main transmission lines, apparently failed to do its job. The safety manager of the state Public Utilities Commission (PUC) said the power utility had a backup system, but it failed.
"I'm very disappointed," said Julian Ajello, who is supervisor of the Northern Californian Safety Division of the PUC. "I've been hearing about these contingency plans for years. This is the first time they've been tested. I don't know why they didn't work."
Why are your current Y2K Contingency Plans probably inadequate to deal with the Year 2000 Problem?
"We don't have time"
"We're working on the Year 2000 Problem and we don't have the time to work up new contingency plans for our organization. We'll do that after we get our Y2K problem fixed."
What good will all your 95% Y2K compliant systems if you are out of business because some of your mission critical business processes were affected by that 5 % you didn't get fixed. And, it bears repeating, you must plan for failures that are beyond your control - failures in the functioning of your mission critical business partners and infrastructure suppliers.
The morale is: the time for Y2K contingency planning is NOW, not December, 1999 when panicking organizations will be doing what they should have done last year.
USAID conducts Y2K Conference at CAPMAS
A four day conference dedicated to the Year 2000 problem was held 14-17 December at the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics (CAPMAS) in Nasr City. CAPMAS has a fantastic new conference center and the chairman, General Ehab Elwy, along with Dr. Vincent Battle of the US Embassy, Ms. Cheryl McCarthy of USAID and Dr. Telal Wassel, Corporate Vice President of Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC), the firm which provided the Y2K expertise for the conference, made opening remarks.
USAID, which is still receiving failing marks from the US government's own assessment co-sponsored the conference. Ms. McCarthy in her opening remarks urged attendees to use self reliance and get to work on the most important functions of their organizations. "Don't wait or depend on us," she said, indicating that USAID will continue its efforts with seminars "like this one, when for modest investment... we can assist the government and public sector to do their job."
The first presentation was made by Dr. Judith List, Vice President and General Manager of Integrated technology Solution for Bellcore, a wholly owned subsidiary of SAIC. List summarized Y2K Problem Management as one of priorities. "Above all else, Y2K is a management and prioritization issue."
In the following four days the team from SAIC and its subsidiary Bellcore made detailed presentations on topics ranging from mainframe, client/server and Desktop Y2K issues to specialists discussing challenges and their experiences in fields as diverse as telephone systems, biomedical devices and health care and electrical power systems.
The one theme which was made clear was that the Year 2000 problem is a matter of extreme importance and the highest levels of management must get involved and set priorities. The Good news was statements that "Y2K will not be the end of the world." The bad news is that none of the experts predicted that Y2K would be completely solved - by anyone.
The catch phrases "Test, test, and test some more" and "there is no silver bullet (a simple / magic cure-all solution)" were heard many times during the presentations. Another point was that "Y2K Awareness" is not a one time task. Communicating the problem - and the senior management level commitment to fix the problem - is essential day in and day out to maintain momentum and focus.
Kilen Matthews is an Internet and Year 2000 Consultant for Y2KEgypt LLC. He can be reached by email at kilenm@y2kegypt.com or at https://www.angelfire.com/ma/kilenm.
