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Albania has given up Communism and is very poor with a collapsed economy. But the Albanians, like the Afghans, have a warlike tradition of vendetta and support of kin. It was predictable that if the Serbs tried "ethnic cleansing" in Kosovo by driving the Albanians out, unofficial Albanian guerrillas would be likely to join in. Support from Turkey or other Islamic countries, including Libya, is imaginable. International pressure failed to dissuade the Serbs, resulting in first expulsion of Albanians, then war between NATO and Serbia. There are growing disputes with Greece over the Greek minority. Many Greeks in Greece believe the southern province ought to be Greek territory (Northern Epirus). The situation of Albanians in Macedonia is also a potential cause of conflict and there was the beginning of a guerrilla war there in 2001, which may have been suppressed after threats and pressure from the European Union and NATO. Albania itself seems unlikely to engage in wars across its borders but the government is very weak and does not control its citizens. War now (2009) seems very unlikely. |
