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Explanation
Russia is fighting a very brutal and active war in Chechnya,
similar in tactics and methods to the war the USSR fought in
Afghanistan.
It has several disputes with former members of the Soviet
Union, especially Georgia and Ukraine. With these its methods
tend to be not so much military as "commercial" - trade
sanctions and boycotts. With Georgia
there have been arbitrary bans on importing Georgia's main products.
With Ukraine there are threats to
interfere with gas supplies. In both cases it is not clear what
the policy aims are but perhaps those ruling Russia regard both
territories as 'natural' parts of Greater Russia, as they had
been part of the Russian Empire of the Tsars.
With the EU as a whole there are veiled threats to the supply
of gas, on which many states in Europe have become dependent.
There have also been unexplained deaths and assassinations
of critics of Vladimir Putin the president of Russia, including
deaths abroad, such as of a dissident Vladimir Litvinenko in
London (November 2006) allegedly poisoned with Polonium 210.
Does this amount to state terrorism?
Russia supports separatists in Georgia - Avkhazia and South
Ossetia. Russian troops are in the breakaway republic of Trans-Dniestria
in Moldova.
Russian troops are also based in parts of former Soviet Central
Asia.
At the end of the Cold War and the break-up of the Soviet
Union, Russia seemed to be a weak power that no longer exerted
power outside its borders, where the government couldn't even
raise enough taxes for its operations. Now (2006) the government
is stronger, no longer subject to democratic control, and exerting
power via its energy exports. The former KGB - a secret police
and intelligence organisation that was the core of the power
structure of the USSR - has recovered under the new name of FSB
(Federal Security Bureau), and seems to be using some of the
same methods as during the Communist period. Thus Russia seems
to have some of the same political features as the former Soviet
Union but without a Communist party. Could it be classified as
Fascist?
Probably not but the government has become more authoritarian, like that of the Tsars.
Is it a danger to its neighbours? Yes, to some of them. It
would seem to be unwise of governments in the EU to become dependent
on Russia's oil and gas supplies. One response to the gas dependence
seems to be new plans to build nuclear power stations in Britain
and other countries and to get supplies of gas from such countries
as Algeria and Nigeria.
What are Putin's policy aims? It seems likely that his first
aim was to restore the power of the Russian state and reduce
the amount of democracy that occurred after the end of the Soviet
Union. Then he is trying to restore the prestige of Russia abroad,
especially in the countries of the "near abroad" -
the former Soviet Republics. Does he intend to re-create the
old Russian Empire as it existed before 1918? Probably he and
the people who put him in power intend something like that. However,
as it no longer has a world wide association of idealists in
a Communist party it seems unlikely that the new Russian Empire
would aim to have influence in third world countries in other
continents.
The following countries may have apprehension about Russia's
intentions for them:
- Finland - formerly ruled by the Tsars
- Estonia - formerly ruled by the Tsars and with a Russian
speaking minority
- Latvia - formerly ruled by the Tsars and with a Russian speaking
minority
- Lithuania - formerly ruled by the Tsars and with a Russian
speaking minority
- Poland - part of it was ruled by the Tsars since the 18th
century
- Ukraine - an integral part of the Russian empire for centuries
- Belarus - an integral part of the Russian empire for centuries
- Moldova - ruled by the Tsars and annexed by Stalin from Romania
- Armenia - an integral part of the Russian empire for centuries
- Georgia - an integral part of the Russian empire for centuries
- Azerbaijan - conquered by the Tsars
- Kazakhstan - conquered by the Tsars
- Uzbekistan - conquered by the Tsars
- Turkmenistan - conquered by the Tsars
- Kyrgizstan - conquered by the Tsars
- Tadzhikistan - conquered by the Tsars
- Mongolia - closely associated with the USSR
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