The Nielsen survey figures –
and
their face saving public misinterpretation by the ODTR
The Nielsen terminology
The Nielsen figures – they can be accessed on www.nielsen-netratings.com/hot_off_the_net_i.jsp
– for domestic Internet usage in Ireland in June 2002 are:
Number
of Sessions per Month 8 |
We
have highlighted the ones that are relevant for comparing the Internet success
of countries.
Green text: For some – and we don't only think of TD's
here – it may be easier to come to grips with these terms and figures by
imagining the figures were about cheese consumption.
Current Internet Universe Estimate
– it is the least important; it just estimates the number of people who have
ever accessed the Internet from home. Useful only as it indicates how many
people could currently use the Internet from home. The ODTR review calls this
the “Internet penetration rate”.
In cheese terms: how many people have ever tasted cheese in
their home.
Active
Internet Universe –
important figure: how many people do actually use the Internet from home. How
many active users a country has (active is defined as having actually used the
Internet from home during the last month at least once).
How many people do regularly eat cheese (defined as having
eaten cheese at least once during the last month).
Time Spent per Month – important
figure: average monthly online time of the active Internet user.
The amount of cheese the average regular cheese eater
consumed last month.
Combining the Nielsen figures with the total population
figures of a country, in Irelands case 3.91 million, will transform the absolute
Nielsen figures into percentage values.
Relating the size of the population with the average online
time per user and the active Internet universe will give the all-important Average
Online Time per Citizen. This figure allows the most
meaningful comparison between the home Internet usage of different countries,
just as you would compare wine consumption or television viewing time or
whatever of different countries by comparing the average consumption per
citizen.
How much cheese has the average citizen consumed last month.
The ODTR only fancies the “Internet penetration rate”
The ODTR review elaborates most of the chapter on “Internet
penetration” rates, illustrating them with two charts. “Internet penetration
rate” is nothing but the rather meaningless Nielsen figure of the Current
Internet Universe Estimate expressed in percent.
Just as it is rather meaningless to deal with the question
of cheese consumption of a country by concentrating on the figure of people who
have ever tasted cheese.
The first ODTR review chart shows that the “Internet
penetration rate” stagnated since last year at 34 %. The ODTR found a more
positive wording, it comments: "The Internet
penetration rate has stabilized from April 2001 to April 2002.”
The second chart compares the “Internet penetration” rate of different countries. Here it is (from the ODTR review):
The
chart shows Ireland on third last place, albeit distinctively above Spain and
France.
To deflect from the poor showing of Ireland the review adds
the following commentary to the diagram:
"Results from the ODTR's recent consumer survey showed
39% of those who do not have access to Internet at home were not interested in
going on line. Perhaps greater awareness of relevant content may increase the
numbers accessing the Internet from home."
This is a serious case of red herring, a non-issue, copied
unashamedly from the propaganda arsenal of EIRCOM. World and dog know that
between 30 and 40 percent of the population of any country under any
circumstances will not warm up to the Internet and computer world.
And if the civil servants of the ODTR really think, "Perhaps
greater awareness of relevant content may increase the numbers accessing the
Internet from home," they might as well pack and
leave.
The important figures – not shown by the ODTR
The next Nielsen figures, which are far more important than
the above, are not shown as diagrams. On their own and nicely and deceptively
worded (has remained… consistent with…),
they look inconspicuous enough:
"According to Nielsen's Internet figures (…), the
active Internet Universe in Ireland has remained at 16% since our last review.
The active Internet universe refers to the number of people who have access to
the Internet at home and have used it during the month.
The average home user spent just under 4 hours online in
April 2002, consistent with previous reviews."
But it is exactly these Nielsen figures that contain a
condemning verdict on the Irish Internet policy makers and regulators. They
contain a bombshell. They show that the incumbent EIRCOM's misuse of its
monopoly status, with Internet access pricing in multiples of that of other
countries, facilitated by (instead of regulated against) the ODTR has been
nothing less than an act of national sabotage.
When we look at comparative diagrams of the important Nielsen
figures, we can see why the ODTR review did not want to show them.
Comparing the active Internet usage figures
Only less than half of the Irish people who have Internet
access from home do actually use the Internet from home (defined as having used
it at least once during the last month).
With
active Internet usage Ireland is down to the level of the non-English speaking
Spain and France (our figure of 14.8 % is based on 3.9 million population in
Ireland). And in both Spain and France the active usage is growing and not
stagnating, as is the case in Ireland.
We should as well keep in mind that the World Wide Web is a
predominantly English language medium, which makes it much harder to adapt to
for non-English speaking countries.
Comparing the average user online time
When we compare the times an Internet user is spending online
Irelands rating is worse.
Ireland
is decisively last with 3hours and 36 minutes, no other country is below 5
hours.
Just to remind of how the ODTR review handles this damning
figure: "The average home user spent just under 4
hours online in April 2002, consistent with previous reviews."
Comparing the online time of the average citizen
The most meaningful comparative figure is of course the
online time per citizen. That's how all other things – be it cheese
consumption or television viewing time – are normally compared.
And when we compare the average monthly online time of the
Irish citizen with those of the other countries it's becoming all too clear:
Internet Ireland is in a coma.
With
32 minutes average online time per citizen we are closer to the level of the
developing world than the developed countries – and that as an
English-speaking people.
Who would have guessed that from the ODTR review?
3. Broadband Access – a Survey to deceive the public
Having failed to regulate against EIRCOM’s blockage of ADSL
broadband rollout, the ODTR conveniently upgrades the humble and clearly
narrowband ISDN to the status of broadband in its review:
"2.3.1 Broadband Access
As illustrated in table 2.1, ISDN and leased lines are the
predominant broadband access technologies that companies have at present
Table 2.1: Types of broadband access companies have at
present
Broadband Access Present
ISDN 68%
National Leased Lines 53%"
There is one big problem with this information: ISDN just is
not broadband.
Broadband is generally defined as always-on, flat rate
Internet connections and data communications that are faster than conventional
modems or ISDN. Commonly the term is used for connection speeds from 512 k
upwards.
And there is a second problem. What about the leased lines?
Are we right to assume that most of them are 64k or 128k lines – again clearly
narrowband – just sold for outrageous prices?
We consider this chapter of the ODTR review to be a serious
and intended misinformation of the public, which is simply not acceptable.