Washington Post Staff Writer

Monday, March 22, 1999; Page D10

Frozen estuaries are dotted with ducks and the footprints of locals who brazenly took the shortest path across. So perhaps the home crowd at Hartwall Arena, accustomed to walking on water, would not consider a gold medal performance by Fairfax's Michael Weiss a miracle achievement.

But others in the skating world certainly would.

Weiss arrived here as the U.S. champion for the first time in his career but he remains a relative newcomer by international skating standards, assured of nothing except an icy view from his hotel window. Weiss, 22, is considered one of several skaters with a shot at winning a medal in an event that for the first time consists of three rounds, including a qualifying round Monday.

But considering the trio of Russians Weiss will be facing, and the return to competition of three-time world champion Elvis Stojko of Canada, Weiss could easily go home with nothing in hand but his suitcase.

That, however, is not his plan.

"If I skate all three programs as well as I can, I do think I could be the world champion," Weiss said after a morning workout today. "I think I could easily be a medalist."

In the women's competition, which begins Wednesday, U.S. champion Michelle Kwan enters as the overwhelming favorite. She has won 10 straight competitions dating back to last year's world championships, and is seeking to become the first U.S. woman in 31 years to win three world titles. Peggy Fleming last did it in from 1966 to 1968.

Kwan will have an interesting -- if not serious -- challenger in Uzbekistan's Tatyana Malinina, who in Kwan's absence won the recent International Skating Union Grand Prix final in St. Petersburg.

Malinina, the eighth-place finisher in last year's Olympics, has never finished better than 13th at worlds and wants her first major international medal. Should both she and Weiss get one, that would mean two trips to the podium for Virginians. The 26-year-old Malinina moved to Dale City last November to train because of poor conditions at her home rink in Tashkent.

Both Malinina and Weiss will have their hands full.

The three Russians entered in the men's event -- Alexei Yagudin, Alexei Urmanov and Evgeni Plushenko -- finished in that order at the ISU Grand Prix final.

Weiss, fresh off his national championship victory in Salt Lake City, finished fourth.

Behind him? Another Russian, Alexander Abt, who is not here because Russia was limited to three world championship entries.

"I just think of them as individual skaters," Weiss said of his Russian competition. "Everybody is beatable. Even the program Yagudin did at the Grand Prix final, I can name a few times my long program would have beaten that."

The Russians seem to benefit from their national rivalry. All long ago executed quadruple jumps in competition. All are considered practitioners of the style that makes judges swoon. Yagudin is the defending world champion and has won two straight European titles. Urmanov, the 1994 Olympic champion who landed his first quad in competition eight years ago, missed all of last season with a groin injury. Plushenko, who is just 16, won the Russian national championships this year and has twice landed quadruple toe loop-triple toe loop combinations in competition.

Weiss, still seeking to land his first quadruple jump in competition, will also have to contend with Stojko, last year's Olympic silver medalist who has spent most of this season trying to recover from a nagging groin injury. The lesser-known Zhengxi Guo of China and Andrejs Vlascenko of Germany also cannot be discounted.

"There are five guys that could win," said Weiss's coach, Audrey Weisiger. "It will be interesting to see which one the judges want to win."

Weisiger said Weiss might be aided by the new change in format, in which the long program is skated twice, first in the qualifying round and again in the final free skate. The qualifying round will account for 20 percent of the final score. The short program is worth 30 percent and the free skate 50. (Previously, the qualifying score did not count, the short was worth one-third of the score and the final worth two-thirds.) Weiss is all but certain to advance out of qualifying. The question will be, in what place will he land?

Weisiger said she thought Weiss would play it safe in qualifying, saving his quadruple toe loop only for the last event. The way she sees it, the new format will reward consistency.

The way he sees it, he is due for a reward.

"I've positioned myself really well with the judges," said Weiss, who has finished no lower than fourth in every event he has entered this season. "My goal has been to reach this point. . . . I'm going to go for it all."

© Copyright 1999 The Washington Post Company

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