Celebrity Blackjack, MLB version: The New York Yankees now sit at the green felt with an ace (Randy Johnson) up, the dealer showing a five, waiting for the hit.

It is looking good for the Bombers. The table tilts in their favor. Does that World Series pot have their name on it?

Not so fast. As fans of both blackjack and baseball know well, there is no sure thing. A lot depends on the turn of that next card.

When Commissioner Bud Selig signed off on the paperwork that on Monday found its way onto his "In" tray, his consent handed Johnson to the Yankees. There is no guarantee that 10 months hence, Selig will be handing the World Series trophy to George Steinbrenner.

Yes, the Yankees have done a marvelous -- definitely resolute, possibly exaggerated -- job of shoring up their pitching. Good for them. They needed to do something. Could you believe that sad-sack rotation they dragged down the wire, and into the postseason, last year?

General manager Brian Cashman has signed and negotiated a solid team. He has painted an even bolder bull's-eye on the backs of the Yankees. But that's all he has done. He hasn't made 29 other teams disappear, he couldn't ask them to please not show up.

All the moans about New York again letting the competitive air out of the 2005 season fall on deaf ears here. Hasn't anyone been paying attention?

If there is one thing that the last four seasons have taught us -- besides, that is, to fear the Wild Card -- it is the wonderful unpredictability of a baseball season, and of the Second Season.

For fun, we added the payrolls of the last three World Series winners, and came up with $242.8 million -- or only a couple of Carlos Beltrans above the Yankees' projection for 2005. And that's including Boston's Major League runner-up tab of $130.4 million last year.

The point? You have to spend money to make money, and the Yankees understand that even better than Donald Trump. But there is little correlation between top dollar and top dog.

In fact, it's about as much correlation as between Randy Johnson and World Series titles. He has been pitching for 17 seasons, and at a higher level than just about anyone else for a dozen of them. He has been in just one World Series, winning it with the 2001 Diamondbacks.

His teams have had other chances. Johnson has pitched in five postseasons -- the explicit reason he was wanted by the Yankees, who were reasonably certain of getting there even without him.

Johnson has lost seven of his eight career starts in Division Series. He's to be the icing on the Yanks' cake, but he has a poor track record. He was acquired on July 31, 1998, by the frontrunning Houston Astros -- who two months later dropped the Division Series to San Diego in four games, with Johnson taking two of the three losses.

At that time, Johnson pitched magnificently but was undercut by an absent offense. And that's exactly the point -- an awful lot of elements have to click for a team to achieve its destiny. In the offseason there is no such thing as a clincher.

The Yankees enter every season as favorites to reign, and 2004 was no exception. Their newest notoriety, however, is more legitimate.

A year ago, everyone was agog over an All-Star lineup completed with newcomers Alex Rodriguez and Gary Sheffield. The latest round of improvements has centered on the more critical area of pitching, with starters Carl Pavano and Jaret Wright having preceded Johnson, and relievers Mike Stanton and Felix Rodriguez also on board.

So unlike last spring, when the glare off that marquee batting order blinded people to pitching trouble spots, the Yankees merit the pole position. Anyone actually not picking them to go all the way is giving in to some biases.

They should win. They would be shocked not to. If not this year, they could have to wait a long time for a better shot.

You know where "shoulda, woulda, coulda" rank.

But with all the pieces in place, the Yankees are prepared to campaign for a return to what they consider their rightful place -- atop that champagne-drenched podium in the locker room, with Steinbrenner holding up the World Series trophy for the world to see.

They'll watch their steps, understanding that many things can sidetrack them. Three main roadblocks:

The Jason Giambi issue: However they dispense with him, the Yankees have to be careful that Giambi doesn't become a divisive force in the clubhouse -- whether or not he's actually there.

Change for change's sake? From the time Orlando Hernandez joined the Yanks' rotation, on July 11, he, Jon Lieber and Javier Vazquez went 19-10. During the same stretch, replacements Johnson, Pavano and Wright were 24-14 -- marginally better, considering the investments made in them.

Knocking on wood: Health is such a big issue for every team, it's virtually a cliche. But considering their age and thinness on and off the mound, it's critical to the Yankees. Mike Mussina's elbow, Kevin Brown's back, Sheffield's shoulder and Bernie Williams' knees are all hot spots.

Notice we left Johnson off the medic watch. It only seems that a private hospital room should be a perk he negotiates in his new contract extension. Yes, he has a tricky back. Yes, he has arthritis but no remaining cartilage in his right knee.

What he also has is that fire in his eyes. Randy made either 34 or 35 starts every season since 1998, with the exception of 2003 (curtailed by the right knee problem that required surgery). He has desire, an insatiable hunger to excel, the need to be counted on every fifth day.

Now, of course, he also has the motivation to prove that the Yankees' six-month quest for him was worth the effort. Some go in search of the Holy Grail. Considering the physique of their newest pitcher, the Yankees may be said to have found their Holy Rail.

If Johnson, who has worn that hazy Big Unit tag long enough, would like a new nickname along with his new address, there's one available. We could officially bestow it upon him sometime in, say, late October.