Oil

Rah! 

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This is all the Oil in the World!

                                                                                                                                                                                                               

How much of this have we discovered?

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Known             Unknown            

How do we know what we know?

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Scientists and Engineers have studying world geologogy to estimate how much oil might remain to be discovered in economic areas and they have done detailed borings to determine what oil is in an existing field, Proven, and how much might be in the surrounding areas, Estimated. The rest is unknown but maybe a good guess although it is likely to be on the low side.

Proven             Estimated             Unknown            

How much does it cost?

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divide table in half with Economic on top and Uneconomic below.

Economic Proven             Estimated             Unknown            
Uneconomic                                    

How can we get more?

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horizontal arrow-Find more of the Unknown

vertical arrow- Lower Costs of Production.

Economic Proven             Estimated             Unknown            
Uneconomic                                    

Then what happens?

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no arrows.

  • The Square gets smaller.
  • Less of it is Unknown.

    Result: It is harder to find where unknown oil is hiding.

    Economic Proven             Estimated             Unknown            
    Uneconomic                                    

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    The First Point of Running Out of Oil: Discovery of new oil = Oil Production - 1975.

    You have to wait for five years after this point is reached and look back at data to be sure to maybe a 60% confidence level that that occured in the past.

    Oil isn't in pools but is embedded in tiny fissures inside sandstone. Sandstone is often used to build old city halls or court houses. Go to such a city hall and fill it with water then put your lips on the outside of the sandstone and suck until you satisfy your thirst.

    Three types of production

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    Primary Least expensive production cost Removes about 10% of oil that is present.

    Secondary Moderately expensive production cost Removes an additional 5% of oil that is present.

    Tertiary Most expensive production cost Removes an additional 5% of oil that is present.

    REMEMBER: Everything varies so these are only general estimates.

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    Bubble point

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    The Second Point of Running Out of Oil: Discovery of new oil = Remova rate of Oil - 2005 - 2030 (est.).

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    Strategies:

  • Spend to develop better recovery methods.
  • Find other energy sources.
  • Use oil efficiently.
  • Limit demand by raising oil prices.
  • Limit demand by rationing.

    Last Updated 9/13/04

    © HWS, 2004