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MetsJournal--2002 Mets Predictions MetsJournal 2002 Mets Predictions


Calendar:

*Sorry about the delay, I've been really busy. I'll try to get as many as possible up before Opening Day, but they will all be up by April 7th.

Roger Cedeño
Al Leiter
Bruce Chen
Joe McEwing
Armando Benitez
Edgardo Alfonzo
Roberto Alomar
Pedro Astacio
John Franco
Grant Roberts
Shawn Estes
Mike Piazza
Mo Vaughn
Steve Trachsel
Dave Weathers
Mark Guthrie
Jeff D'Amico
Jeromy Burnitz
Jay Payton
Vance Wilson
Gary Matthews, Jr.
Dicky Gonzalez
Rey Ordoñez
John Valentin
Mark Johnson
Jason Phillips and Jorge Toca
Mets lineup as a whole
Remaining Starting Pitchers
Remaining Relief Pitchers
Mets Pitching Staff as a Whole
Mets Individual Player Batting Statistics
Mets Individual Player Pitching Statistics
mets


Roger Cedeño
27 year-old switch-hitting outfielder

While Steve Phillips has been heralded for his great acquisitions of power hitters, such Mo Vaughn and Jeromy Burnitz, and defensive wiz Roberto Alomar, Cedeño may be the sleeper in the off-season. Cedeño, who signed a four year deal worth $18 million, is one of the fastest men in the majors, and the leadoff hitter the Mets badly needed. Since Rickey Henderson left in 1999 (okay fine, he left in 2000, but his will to play with the Mets left in 1999), the Mets have lacked a true leadoff hitter. They have tried, among others, Timo Perez, Benny Agbayani, Derek Bell, Joe McEwing, Tsuyoshi Shinjo, Jay Payton, Matt Lawton, Darren Bragg, Melvin Mora, Darryl Hamilton, and Jason Tyner. Cedeño is the guy they’ve been searching for. In the 1999-2000 off-season, the Mets had to give up Cedeño in order to get pitcher Mike Hampton, a move that got them to the World Series. The Mets didn’t really want to give up Cedeño, but if they had to in order to get Hampton, they would. The Mets had fond memories of Cedeño and Cedeño had fond memories of the Mets, so when he became a free agent this winter, both parties were thinking the same thing.

Cedeño is arguably the fastest man in the majors. In 1999 he came in second to Arizona’s Tony Womack in stolen bases and stole both a career high and Met record 66 bases. Last year he had 55 and finished just 1 stolen base behind Seattle’s Ichiro, the league leader. While fast, he’s not the perfect leadoff hitter. His career on base percentage is a meager .355, due to very few walks (only 36 last year), and a solid but not special batting average: .281.

Cedeño has been in the majors 7 years: 4 with the Dodgers as a backup outfielder, one in a platoon situation with the Mets, one as a starter (though on the injured list most of the year) with Houston, and one as a starter in Detroit. He had his best year by far with the Mets, setting career highs in games (155), runs (90), doubles (23), walks (60), stolen bases (66), on-bases percentage (.396), slugging percentage (.406), and batting average (.313).

If in the lineup, Cedeño will be the leadoff hitter. He’s been hurt only once in his career, so it is a safe bet to say he’ll only be out day-to-day with scrapes and bruises. While at the top of the lineup, he can do so much. When on base, pitchers are distracted by his speed, so in addition to stealing bases, he’ll allow the number two hitter to see some mistake pitches and maybe hit them a few hundred feet or so. He’ll probably have a season close to his 1999 season, now that he’s back in a park he likes with a manager he likes with players he likes, though who knows? That could’ve been a fluke. Even if it was, expect this man to do much setting of the table, while the guys behind him clean it up.

dude BA HR RBI OBP SLG H R BB K SB G AB
Roger Cedeño .295 5 39 .375 .400 178 123 75 96 58 158 605


Al Leiter
36 year-old lefthanded starting pitcher

Back for his fifth season with the Mets, Al Leiter is the definative staff ace. Though there are questions relating to his age (37), health (was out for a month last year, and for long after was on a pitch count), and overall ability in this late stage of his career.

Leiter is one of a growing number of late bloombers, players who reach their prime in their mid to late thirties. The list of such players includes Luis Gonzalez and Randy Johnson. In the beginning of his career Leiter was relatively hard-throwing lefty who struck out a fair share of batters but had no idea where his pitches were ending up. Similar to a David Cone type pitcher, he led the American League in walks in 1995 while with Toronto and the National League in 1996 while with Florida. After winning the World Series with the Marlins in 1997 (he was actually the starting pitcher of Game 7 of the World Series. He ended up getting a no-decision since he was pulled before Edgar Rentería’s bottom of the ninth walk-off RBI single) he was traded with Dennis Cook to the Mets in exchange for a number of prospects, including one of the Marlins’ current starters, A.J. Burnett. Each year after coming to the Mets his stats began to improve. In 2000, he went 16-8 and led the club with a 3.20 ERA, while striking out 200. More impressively, in 208 innings he only walked 76. Last year he went down in April with an arm injury. Though he came back when expected, he wasn’t his full self, and for weeks afterwards he was on a pitch count.

This year many questions have been asked about him. Will he stay healthy? Will he pitch beyond his years? Will he buckle under the pressure? I see him doing well. He's embraced New York and he can feel how much Met fans need a championship this year. I think he'll step up to the challenge and take others with him.

dude G GS IP W-L R ER K BB SV BS WHIP ERA
Al Leiter 34 34 188 17-9 78 71 177 51 0 0 1.20 3.34


Bruce Chen
24 year-old lefthanded starting pitcher

Lefty Bruce Chen is one of the harder Mets to predict a season for. For one, he will probably be traded either before the season even starts or by the trade deadline. Two, his role on the club is uncertain (which is why he’ll probably be traded).

Chen, a native of Panama, came to the Mets last season from Philadelphia in the trade that sent Dennis Cook and Turk Wendell to the Phillies. For a number of years he was a top prospect in the Braves organization who couldn’t find his way into a very full Braves rotation. At the trade deadline in 2000, the Braves needed a reliable veteran arm to get them deeper into the playoffs. Chen was the one they had to give up to pry Andy Ashby from Philadelphia. After a poor first half of 2001 split between Philly and Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, Chen once again was traded away from a playoff contender in exchange for veterans.

After an extremely busy off-season that saw fellow lefty starter Glendon Rusch depart the Mets, Bruce Chen has remained, though maybe not for long. In the deal that sent Rusch out of town, the Mets got back 6'7" righty starter Jeff D'Amico. Before the trade, a deal involving Rusch or Chen for Burnitz with several other players tossed in had come up numerous times. The deal had two purposes. The obvious one was to get a power-hitting outfielder. In addition, it was supposed to unload one of our six starting pitchers. Instead, we got back a starter and we still have six.

If the Mets had to rank their starting pitchers, Chen would probably come in sixth and last. While he's not bad, he's just not as good as the other five: Al Leiter, Pedro Astacio, Shawn Estes, Steve Trachsel, and Jeff D'Amico. One's first thought here is "Just put him in the bullpen." Yet, if you watch Chen, you realize that most of his trouble comes in his first inning of work. Numerous times last year he would have nothing in the first inning, giving up a few runs and pitching out of a jam, yet pitch close to perfectly the rest of the game. That kind of pitching style is not one that would lend itself well to relief work.

In the search for a solution, several times on the FAN (the New York sport talk-radio station, heavily devoted to the Mets) callers or hosts have suggested the possibility of Bobby Valentine using a 6-man rotation, a far-fetched, though not entirely bad idea. If you think about it, the 6-man rotation could help several starters very much. Al Leiter, Pedro Astacio and Jeff D'Amico, all easily injurable, would have more rest between starts. The shaky and unreliable Steve Trachsel and Shawn Estes would have more time to review each start and see exactly what they did wrong, so they could correct it in their next start. And Chen, well he would get a spot in the rotation and a start every sixth day.

As I said earlier, I do not believe Chen will remain with the Mets the entire season, but if he does I think it will be as a starter. He still has options, and so if all the Mets' starters are healthy come Opening Day, don't be surprised to see Chen in Norfolk. However, if one starter goes down (which, between D'Amico, Astacio, and Leiter, is likely), Chen would probably be right back up to fill his spot. If Chen does stay with the Mets, he should have a solid, but by no means surprising, year.

dude G GS IP W-L R ER K BB SV BS WHIP ERA
Bruce Chen (assuming full season with Mets) 20
dude
17
dude
95
dude
4-3
dude
50
dude
47
dude
76
dude
42
dude
0
dude
2
dude
1.42
dude
4.45
dude


Joe McEwing
29 year-old righthanded utilityman

While Joe McEwing (also known as Super Joe and The Giant Slayer) may not like it, he's the perfect guy for the Mets. While he's not a starter, he can be as important in any one game as any player on the team.

What makes a guy like Super Joe so valuable is his versatility. While Lenny Harris could pinch hit and make occasional starts, his defense was far less than average at any position and his pinch hit record is deceiving. While he does have more pinch hits than anyone else in baseball history, he has made a career out of pinch hitting and thus has a pinch hitting average of around .250, meaning only 1 out of every 4 pinch hitting at-bats does he come through. Super Joe however, is different.

Besides for the 1999 season, when he was the everyday secondbaseman for St. Louis, Super Joe has been a utility guy his whole career. He's played every position except pitcher and catcher, and been healthy and ready to go whenever called upon. He is the definition of a "gamer." He loves to play the game more than anything else and doesn't let anything stop him from playing and playing his best. He respects the game, the coaches, the umps, and his teammates and opponents alike. In addition, he does everything he can to be the best he can be between the chalk lines. He's always one of the first ones to the ballpark each day, reportedly showing up at around 1:00 PM for regular 7:00 PM night games, and always one of the hardest working. One of the things that has helped his game is that he knows his game. He knows what type of player he is, what he means to the team, and instead of complaining about his lack of playing time, he appreciates every inning he's on the field.

While his role this year will be less than it was last year, it will be recognized just as much by the team. Last year, due to injuries to Edgardo Alfonzo, Robin Ventura, Jay Payton, and Benny Agbayani, Super Joe saw time at 6 different positions (all except pitcher, catcher, and centerfield) totalling 66 starts and 116 total games. Not only is he a good defensive player (the only position at which he's bad at is firstbase, where he's terrible, and at second and in the corner outfield positions he's better than average), but extremely he's clutch. When Harris couldn't come on to pinch hit, because, say a lefty was on the mound, Super Joe was the guy. When the Mets lacked a true leadoff hitter, Super Joe slipped into the one-hole, and had streaks of 3 and 5 straight games with leadoff hits. In addition, he has a good mixture of speed and power for a guy his size (5'11", 170). Not only does he steal some bases (8 last year, tied for the team league--good considering he only started 66 games), but he has some pop too (8 homers as well, again in only 66 starts).

While Super Joe will see less playing time, you won't hear any grumbling coming from him. From Super Joe, look for a smile and a good season.

dude BA HR RBI OBP SLG H R BB K SB G AB
Joe McEwing .276 5 22 .333 .440 65 37 20 51 7 104 235


Armando Benitez
29 year-old righthanded closer

mets G GS IP W-L R ER K BB SV BS WHIP ERA
Armando Benitez 74 0 74 5-3 26 22 98 37 46 6 1.15 2.68


Edgardo Alfonzo
28 year-old righthanded thirdbaseman


Roberto Alomar
34 year-old switch-hitting secondbaseman


Pedro Astacio
33 year-old righthanded starting pitcher


John Franco
41 year-old lefthanded setup man


Grant Roberts
24 year-old righthanded middle reliever


Shawn Estes
29 year-old lefthanded starting pitcher


Mike Piazza
33 year-old righthanded catcher


Mo Vaughn
34 year-old lefthanded firstbaseman


Steve Trachsel
31 year-old righthanded starting pitcher


Dave Weathers
32 year-old righthanded middle reliever


Mark Guthrie
36 year-old lefthanded middle reliever


Jeff D'Amico
26 year old righthanded starting pitcher


Jeromy Burnitz
33 year-old lefthanded outfielder


Jay Payton
29 year-old righthanded outfielder


Vance Wilson
29 year-old righthanded catcher


Gary Matthews, Jr.
27 year old switch-hitting outfielder


Dicky Gonzalez
23 year-old righthanded starting pitcher


Rey Ordoñez
29 year-old righthanded shortstop


John Valentin
35 year-old righthanded utility infielder


Mark Johnson
34 year-old lefthanded firstbasemen/outfielder


Jason Phillips and Jorge Toca
25 year-old righthanded catcher and 27 year-old righthanded firstbaseman


Complete Mets Lineup


Remaining Relief Pitchers


Remaining Starting Pitchers


Complete Pitching Staff


Individual Player Batting Statistics


Individual Player Pitching Statistics