How to Deal with the Crisis in North Africa and the Middle East (2011)
Dr. M. A. Fazal
Introductory
At the beginning of 2011, a crisis erupted somewhat abruptly in Tunisia and then spread to Egypt, Jordan, Yemen, Bahrain, Libya, Algeria and even in Iran. By the middle of February 2011, the ruling regimes were overthrown in Tunisia and Egypt. At the time of writing this article in March 2011, civil war was going on in Libya. Elsewhere, the popular protests were threatening the longstanding stability of the area. The consequences of these political upheavals were by no means confined to North Africa and the Middle East. The disrupted economies of Tunisia, Egypt and Libya pushed up the rate of immigration into Europe. The Middle East and North Africa being the most important source of oil and gas supplies, the political upheavals in these regions had the effect of inflating the price of gas and oil, thereby affecting the economic stability of the rest of the world, in particular that of the West, at a time when the demand for oil and gas was rising very rapidly in China, the second largest economy in the world. This calls for consideration of the questions as to the cause, or causes, of this crisis, and how to deal with the problems created thereby.
Analysis of the Problem
It was being pointed out that the crisis was due to the hostility of the Islamic world towards the West, or that Islam as a religion has been hostile to the western way of life. It ought to be pointed out that this view is based on a misconception or misunderstanding of the teachings of Islam. Islam’s attitude towards non-Muslims is that individuals and groups have to take responsibility for their own faith and actions. There is no need or justification for entertaining hostility towards non-Muslims on the part of Muslims. The theological justification for the application Sharia law (Islamic law) to Muslims only, and its non-application to non-Muslims, is provided by the Holy Koran, the Muslim holy book. Thus, Chapter 109 (verses 2-6) of the Holy Koran directs Muslims to say to non-Muslims:
“2. I worship not that which you worship.”
“3. Nor will you worship that which I worship.”
“4. And I shall not worship that which you are worshipping.”
“5. Nor will you worship that which I worship.”
“6. To you be your religion and to me my religion.” (Islamic monotheism)
If that is the attitude of Islamic teaching towards non-Muslims, why does the radicalised section of the Muslim youth present a terrorist threat to the West, as illustrated by the attacks of 11 September 2001 and of 7 July 2005 in London, one might ask. The explanation seems to be as follows: First, radicalisation affects only a small section of the Muslim community and not Muslims in general. Second, what are the causes of radicalisation among Muslims? Could these be addressed, one must ask. Surprisingly, these questions have never surfaced in public discussions in the West. The most important factor seems to be the way in which the Palestinians have been treated, both during the process of establishment of Israel involving the forceful seizure of their homes and lands, and their expulsion and concentration in refugee camps and subsequently. In other words, Palestinians have been subjected to somewhat similar treatment to that accorded to the Jews in Europe by the Third Reich, yet the West has consistently supported Israel against the Palestinians. The US veto of the UN Security Council Resolution of 18 February 2011, condemning the Jewish settlements in the West Bank as illegal, was the latest illustration of Western support for Israel on the matter.
Secondly, the war in Iraq and Afghanistan pursued by the West is perceived by the radicalised section of the Muslims as a war against Islam. Thirdly, the USA’s military, financial and political support of the corrupt and repressive regimes directed not only against their own population, but also against the Palestinians, is similarly regarded. Egypt’s support for the Israeli blockade against Gaza illustrates this point. Egypt’s support for this blockade was obtained by the US military and financial aid for Egypt.
Causes of Popular Protests
It appears that there are primarily two causes of popular protests in these countries:
(a) Poverty, youth unemployment and soaring cost of living
The young people at the vanguard of the protests sweeping the Arab world and exasperated demographic: the lucky ones stuck in poorly paid jobs they hate, and the unlucky touting degrees that do not get them anywhere. A generation muzzled by tradition, deference, and authoritarian rule; Morocco: inflation 2.5%, youth (aged 15-24) unemployment: 21.9%; Tunisia: inflation: 4.5%, youth unemployment: 21.9%; Egypt: inflation: 12.8%, youth unemployment: 21.7%; Jordan: inflation 4.4%, youth unemployment: 27%; Syria: inflation: 5.9%, youth unemployment: 16.5%; Algeria: inflation: 5%, youth unemployment: 45.6%; Libya: inflation 3%, youth unemployment: 27.4%; Sudan: inflation: 11.8% (no data for youth unemployment is available at the present time); Saudi Arabia: inflation: 5.7%, youth unemployment: 16.3%; Yemen: inflation 12.2%, youth unemployment: 18.7%; Bahrain: figures are not available but unemployment is likely to be high among the Shia sect of the population. Discrimination exists between the Shia and Sunni sects (Guardian, 15 February 2011, pp.16-17).
(b) Educated youth from the emerging middle class calling for democracy and freedom
Aristotle, the Greek philosopher, stated in his book ‘Politics’ that the form of government in a country depends on the class structure of its society. If there is a sizeable middle class in the country, that would not tolerate an authoritarian or despotic form of government. They would demand what is termed “democracy”. Karl Marx adopted this analysis. It seems to be relevant to what is happening in North Africa and the Middle East. Thus, it has been said with regard to Egypt and Tunisia that “less tangible than the lack of jobs, but no less important, is a sense of oppression, the stifling of creativity and energy and freedom. In Tunis, Ghazi Megdiche says that the psychological impact of two decades of repression ran deep”. What defined us was not lack of job prospects, but lack of the most basic freedoms: being a teenager in a police state. Megdiche says that “it was absolute stress at all times: we were contorted by nerves and fear and living on edge every day. Anything we did, you were watched. You couldn’t talk about politics, even in your own home. If a young guy went out to pray, he could be lifted by the police (on suspicion of being a would-be Islamist terrorist planning a Jihad / Holy War…Even my parents at home whispered. We never knew our neighbours, never said hello in the entrance hall, for fear that everyone was spying and an informer. You trusted no-one.” (Guardian, 15 February 2011, p.16)
The modern method of communication has added a new dimension to the demands for freedom and democracy. Thus, it has been said that “the wave of Arab protests has acquired some lazy epithets: the Wikileaks revolution, the Facebook uprising, the Twitter revolt. In reality, it is more complex than that. But social media does play a big role in the lives of young Arabs. Some estimates put at more than 100 million the number of new media users across the Arab world. In Tunisia, one in five young people use Facebook.” (Guardian, 15 February 2011, p.16)
The Impact of this Crisis on the World Economy
North Africa and the Middle East are a major source global oil and gas supplies. Therefore, a political crisis in this region has serious implications for the world economy and its recovery from the recent recession. Interference with the supply of energy from this region is liable to push up its price and inject inflation in the economies of various countries of the world. 26.3 billion barrels of oil are produced each year globally. 35.9 percent of this total volume is produced in this region (Saudi Arabia: 12.8%; Kuwait: 3.8%; Iraq: 3.1%; Iran: 5.6%; UAE: 3.4%; Oman: 1.1%; Yemen: 0.4%; Syria: 0.5%; Jordan: 0.00006%; Egypt: 0.8%; Libya: 2.3%; Tunisia: 0.1%; Algeria: 1.7%; Morocco: 0.0002%. Source: International Energy Agency, as reported in the Daily Telegraph, 22 February 2011, p.B1).
As far as the world’s crude oil reserves are concerned, the 2009 figures (in billions of barrels) of proven reserves of OPEC nations, are as follows: Saudi Arabia: 264.6; Venezuela: 211.2; Iran: 137.0; Iraq: 115.0; Kuwait: 101.5; UAE: 97.8; Libya: 46.4; Nigeria: 37.2; Qatar: 25.4; Algeria: 12.2; Angola: 9.5; Ecuador: 6.5; amounting to 1,064 billions of barrels for OPEC nations, the non-OPEC nations accounting for 273 billion barrels (source: OPEC Reuters, as reported in the Independent, 25 February 2011).
With regard to gas supplies, Europe receives 31% of its gas from Russia, but liquefied natural gas (LNG) currently comes mostly from the Middle East. (Daily Telegraph, p. B5)
If the political crisis spreads to Algeria, which could have the effect of removing nearly 2 million barrels of high-quality crude oil from the market, the price could well move above US$220 a barrel. (Sunday Times, 27 February 2011, p.B4) Inflation will soar if the crisis spreads to a major producer, such as Saudi Arabia, which has offered to make up for the loss of oil supplies resulting from the Libyan crisis. Unlike the striking poverty in Tunisia, Egypt and other countries, the Saudis are relatively well off. Although poverty also exists in Saudi Arabia, the government has invested billions of dollars in welfare. The King announced on 26 February 2011 that the government is to add a further 37 billion dollars into its spending programme designed to help lower and middle income earners among the 18 million Saudi nationals. It would include pay-rises to offset inflation, unemployment benefits, and affordable family housing. (Guardian, 24 February 2011) Nonetheless, the risk remains. “If Saudi Arabia were to fall, an unlikely scenario, there would be an earthquake across the world economy” (Independent, 25 February 2011, p.2) The gravity of the situation for the world economy arising out of the crisis in North Africa and the Middle East is also demonstrated by the following statement. “The turmoil in the Middle East [and North Africa] pushed the oil price close to the crucial $120 mark at which it may threaten global growth, putting the UK at a growing risk of a dangerous inflationary shock.” (Daily Telegraph, 25 February 2011, p.B3)
Forces Behind the Popular Protests
It would appear that there are three forces behind the popular movement. First, the radicalised Muslim youth, who take a radical view of Islam: This point has been addressed above. Second, the slogan of democracy: The West, including the US in particular, has been pushing the call for the introduction of democracy in North Africa and the Middle East to replace the autocratic regimes there. It is not appreciated that democracy developed in Europe in conjunction with nationalism, which carried with it the risk of national conflicts. At times, a point was reached when, for instance, the French were shouting the slogan ‘let us march to Berlin’ and the Germans were shouting ‘let us march to Paris’. This kind of nationalistic fervour led to the national wars, including the Second World War and the Holocaust. This demonstrates the risk of espousing the call for secular democracy, which has been increasingly evident in the Middle East and North Africa. Third, as mentioned here, the forces of nationalism in this region: In this region, the most dangerous national conflict is likely to be that between Arab nationalism and Jewish nationalism/Zionism at a time when both sides are armed with weapons of mass destruction, including nuclear weapons. This demonstrates the importance of finding a peaceful resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. On this point, the reader is referred to this author’s website article entitled ‘A Peaceful Resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict’, recommending a federal solution to this conflict as opposed to the ‘two-state solution’, which is neither desirable, nor viable. The Israelis themselves have rendered the two-state non-viable by their unilateral and illegal seizure of Palestinian homes and land. The appropriate slogan for reform ought to be the constitutionalism and the protection of human rights, and not democracy and nationalism. That is to say, the state apparatus ought to operate within the framework of an enforceable written constitution, which will carry with it the protection of human rights. This implies the existence of an independent judiciary with the power to enforce the constitutional provisions.
Content of this Proposal
We have seen that the causes of this crisis are as follows: (a) poverty, unemployment and soaring cost of living; (b) the emergence of a middle class demanding freedom and constitutional government replacing autocracy; (c) the international conflict, in particular the Israeli-Palestinian conflict; (d) climate change, global warming, and desertification. This was the cause of the conflict in Sudan. In fact, the all-round development of agriculture, industry, trade and business between the various regions will require the greening of the desert. This in turn will require the adequate supply of fresh water, which will involve the use of solar energy to turn the saline water of the sea into fresh water to be supplied to the desert through tunnels and canals for irrigation and afforestation of the desert. Afforestation of the desert might bring about climate change and rain fall to render the process of greening of the desert self-sustaining. Once the process is accomplished, the economic development of the area will take off. As a result of all-round development, poverty and unemployment are likely to disappear. I have described the process of transformation in other website articles of mine. I have indicated my approach to the challenges of global warming, climate change and the energy crisis in my website article entitled ‘How to Avoid Nuclear War Between India and Pakistan’ in the paragraphs under the heading ‘Appropriate Response to Challenges of Global Warming, Climate Change and Energy Crisis’:
“The response of governments, various official reports and international organisations has been to emphasise the importance of reducing carbon emissions to the atmosphere to avoid the impact on the world climate. In view of this author this approach is not practicable to deliver the desired results. It is not possible to reduce the level of carbon emissions required to make a meaningful impact within the time-scale contemplated. By the time the target is achieved (if it is ever achieved) it might be too late.
This author advocates an alternative approach which will involve three main elements. First, the greening of the main deserts both in the northern and southern hemispheres ought to be done by way of afforestation. The trees are likely to absorb carbon emissions thereby reducing their volume and discharge moisture into the air so as to bring about rainfall and thus to make the process self-sustaining. In the cases of Sahara desert, the deserts in the Middle East, the Thor desert in the Indian Sub-continent and those in central Asia, this approach will require concerted actions by the countries concerned, supported by resources and expertise from the outside world including in particular the West. Secondly appropriate technology ought to be developed for the purposes of recycling of wastes and carbon emissions and their conversion into energy. As a result, it should be possible to have (a) secure source of supply of energy and (b) to solve the problem of global warming and climate change by removing/reducing the available carbon level in the atmosphere- the cause of drought and famine in the sub-Saharan countries and elsewhere.
Thirdly, appropriate technology ought to be developed to utilise renewable sources of energy such as solar energy, wind and wave power etc. As a result of global warming, it is anticipated that tropical and sub-tropical countries as well as southern Europe would be exposed to a much warmer climate and hot sun. This is likely to carry with it the risk of turning those areas into desert thereby destroying plants, crops and animals. However, such hot sun would at the same time offer the source of unlimited supply of energy, provided that the appropriate technology is available to produce solar energy on a scale that is required and at a price that is commercially viable. Once unlimited energy is available at a viable cost, any number of desalination plants could be built along the sea coasts to produce fresh water to be supplied inland by canals and tunnels for irrigation of land. This would result in the growth of crops and afforestation of deserts such as the Sahara desert and deserts in the Middle East, Indian Sub-continent, central Asia and other parts of the world. This could also apply to Australia which is expected to be turned into a desert by 2027. Global warming might be a means of dealing with the consequences of global warming itself. It could even provide an opportunity to turn poor countries including Africa into rich nations. It seems that the tropical belt of the planet Earth is expanding itself. This has a particular significance for Australia. The westerly wind with its rainfall is moving south of Australia thereby exposing the country to acute drought and desertification.
It appears that the southern hemisphere is being affected more immediately at the present time than the northern hemisphere by global warming. Australia is experiencing an acute drought and might become a complete desert by 2027. Lakes and rivers are drying up in South America. This cannot be the effect of industrial pollution and carbon emissions which are largely prevalent in the northern hemisphere. The solar activity might be the predominant factor in bringing about climate change and global warming. If that is the case, then cutting carbon emissions alone will not be the complete answer to the problem (although it might be a partial answer insofar as industrial pollution is a contributory factor). Please see the book entitled "The Chilling Stars" by Henrik Svensmark and Nigel Calder, published by Icon Books Ltd, 2007. In that case, the alternative approach advocated by this author i.e. Fazal's approach (namely the conversion of solar heat into energy through appropriate technology to produce an unlimited amount of fresh water from the sea using desalination plants for the irrigation of land, coupled with the effective treatment of the trees and plants affected by insects and diseases produced by the warming of the climate) would be the full answer to the problem.
Furthermore, the areas that are submerged under saline water from the rising level of the sea could be put to productive use. Thus in Bangladesh, as the rising sea level has pushed saline water inland contaminating rice fields and water supplies, thousands of farmers have turned their rice fields into shrimp farms. It has enabled them to earn a higher income. This demonstrates that rising sea levels and warmer climate together with its hot sun could be turned into an advantage whereby man can transform the existing and potential deserts into green farm lands and forests and enjoy a higher standard of living. Once the deserts turn green, the trees of the deserts are likely to absorb carbon emissions thereby reducing their levels and to discharge moisture into the atmosphere. This is likely to bring about rainfall, thus making the greening process self-sustaining.”
In my website article entitled ‘A Federal Solution to the Conflict in Sudan’, in the paragraphs under the hearing ‘Global Dimming’, I have stated:
“Scientists looking at five decades of sunlight measurements have reached the disturbing conclusion that the amount of solar energy reaching the Earth's surface has been gradually declining. Dimming appears to be caused by air pollution. Burning of coal, oil and wood, whether in cars, power stations or cooking fires produces not only visible carbon dioxide (the principal greenhouse gas responsible for global warming) but also tiny airborne particles of soot, ash, sulphur compounds and other pollutants.
The visible air pollution reflects sunlight back into space, preventing it from reaching the Earth's surface. Furthermore, the pollution changes the optical properties of clouds. Because the particles seed the water droplets, polluted clouds contain a larger number of droplets than unpolluted clouds. This makes them more reflective than they would otherwise be, again reflecting the Sun's rays back into space. Scientists are now worried that dimming, by cooling the air over the sub-tropical parts of the worlds such as Ethiopia and sub-Saharan Africa caused drought which claimed millions of lives in the 1970s and 1980s. This phenomenon was repeated again in 2005 affecting Ethiopia and sub Saharan countries such as Niger, Mali, Mauritania and the neighbouring countries.
Normally the hot air over these areas attracts wet air from the tropical parts of Africa and brings about rainfall. However, cooling of atmosphere in these areas through industrial pollution in Europe and North America prevents this happening thereby disturbing the usual pattern of rainfall resulting in drought and famine. [The source of this information was made available in the BBC's Horizon programmes broadcast in the United Kingdom on 13 and 15 January 2005]. A nuclear war, global or local, which can produce a large amount of soot in the atmosphere (which could linger in the upper atmosphere for up to a decade) will have similar effects in cooling the air by several degrees centigrade. This is liable to affect the world climate with consequences for food production.
This is the reason why this author has serious reservations about the proposal to cool the atmosphere above the earth. Currently the scientists are trying to devise various means of cooling the air in order to deal with the consequences of global warming. One of such consequences has been the damage to the tropical forests due to the appearance of insects in the trees. The scientists ought to develop appropriate treatment for the trees against such pests and diseases rather than cooling the earth's atmosphere.
Greening of the Sahara Desert (which is likely to discharge moisture into the atmosphere and bring about rainfall in the area) might be the only way to deal with the consequences of global climatic change resulting in drought and famine in the sub-Saharan countries of Africa. Trees absorb carbon dioxide from the air. Consequently greening of the desert by way of afforestation is likely to have the effect of reducing the carbon level of the atmosphere. Therefore afforestation of deserts in the northern and southern hemispheres of this planet could play an important part in achieving the objective of reducing the overall level of carbon dioxide emissions.”
On the proposal to convert the Sinai Desert into a green and fertile agricultural land, I have stated the following in my website article entitled ‘A Federal Solution to the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict’ when addressing the question as to where the water will come from:
“Much of the Palestinian land at present comprises desert and semi-desert areas. In the context of the proposed federal solution, the Regional Equalisation Principle will require greening of the desert/semi-desert lands involving afforestation, development of agriculture as well as all-round development including industry. As a result, the Palestinian unit of the proposed federation will be as attractive a place for settlement as Israel. Therefore the Palestinians returning from abroad as well as those living in the refugee camps will find Palestine a sufficiently attractive place for settlement. THERE WILL BO NO NEED FOR THEM TO SETTLE IN ISRAEL. Palestine coupled with a part of Sinai ( which will be equally transformed into green farm land and forests) ceded to the proposed federation by Egypt for having its own part of Sinai turned into green farm land and forests ( by the proposed Federal State of Israel and Palestine aided by the outside world) will be adequate for settlement for the returning Palestinians.
For the answer to the question: 'where will the water come from for the greening of the Palestine Territory and the Sinai Desert' the reader is referred to this author's website article entitled "How to Avoid Nuclear War between India and Pakistan" (paragraphs headed: RESPONSE TO CHALLENGES OF GLOBAL WARMING, CLIMATE CHANGE AND ENERGY CRISIS). If the appropriate technology could be developed to transform solar heat into unlimited amount of energy at a cost that is commercially viable then sufficient number of desalination plants could be built along the sea coasts. Fresh water thus obtained from the sea through the use of desalination plants could be taken inland by way of irrigation canals and tunnels for the greening of both the Palestine Territory and the Sinai Desert.”
In view of the topicality of the current debate over the desirability of the use of nuclear power arising out of explosions in the nuclear plant caused by the earthquake and tsunami in Japan in March 2011, it is worth considering the question 'how safe are nuclear plants'? I have stated in my website article entitled "How To Avoid Nuclear War Between India and Pakistan":
We are considering the risks of nuclear weapons. One is also prompted to ask the question " How safe are the nuclear power plants in their hands?" In People's Union for Civil Liberties v. Union of India ( 2004 SOL Case No.012) - a case that reached the Supreme Court of India in 2004 the appellants sought disclosure of information relating to safety violations and defects in various nuclear installations throughout India. In that case it was revealed that a report of the Atomic Energy Regulatory Board of November 1995 had documented 130 instances of serious accidents in nuclear power plants in India. The implications of this type of accidents ought to be viewed against the background of the Chernobyl Nuclear Accidents which occurred on 26 April 1986 at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant in Ukraine, then part of the Soviet Union. The human consequences of Chernobyl Nuclear Accidents have been well-documented.
Please see the articles entitled " Inside Chernobyl plus Nuclear Power Reconsidered " published in the April issue of 2006 National Geographic magazine ( at pages 32-63) . In this nuclear accident the volume of radioactive fallout was more than 400 times than that released at Hiroshima exposing those concerned to the then and future hazards of cancers and other forms of diseases.
India has 14 nuclear power reactors most of which are modelled after a design first built in 1957. While the Government releases no information about leaks or accidents at its nuclear power plants, Dhirendra Sharma, an Indian scientist who has written extensively on the matter has compiled figures based on his own reporting. According to him an estimated 300 incidents of a serious nature have occurred,causing radiation leaks and physical damage to workers. These have,so far, remained official secrets. ACCIDENTS AT NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS PRESENT THE RISKS OF OF A FAR MORE DANGEROUS HOLOCAUST THAN THAT OF A NUCLEAR WAR.
In view of the fact that carbon related emissions from the burning of fossil fuels causes global warming there is a growing demand for alternative sources of energy, particularly in the form of nuclear power. HOWEVER, SO FAR, NO SATISFACTORY SOLUTION HAS BEEN FOUND TO THE PROBLEMS OF ACCIDENTS IN NUCLEAR POWER STATIONS AND SAFE DISPOSAL OF NUCLEAR WASTE MATERIAL.
NUCLEAR POWER AS AN OPTION TO ENSURE FUTURE ENERGY SUPPLY IN THE UNITED KINGDOM
The Government of the United Kingdom announced in 2005 its intention to undertake a review of the above. The Government indicated its preference for nuclear power to ensure future energy supply by building sufficient number of additional nuclear power stations. This author acknowledges the importance of finding an alternative source of future energy supply other than the fossil fuels - coal, oil, gas etc. the burning of which results in carbon emissions causing global warming up and climatic change. This is responsible for drought and famine in the countries of Sub-Saharan Africa at the present time and potentially poses a grave threat to the lives of over a billion of population in Asia. The reader is referred to the website articles of this author entitled "A Federal Solution to the Conflict in Sudan" and "How to Avoid Nuclear War between India and Pakistan"- available on: www.angelfire.com/ok/mafazal/index.html
However, there are dangers associated with the option for nuclear energy. The object of this work is to draw attention to these dangers. First there is the risk of accidents in nuclear power plants. The accident that occurred at Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plants in Ukraine on 26 April 1986 is well-known. It put at risk not only the population, animals, plants and environment locally but also elsewhere. The farmers in the Welsh mountains and in Scotland found that their farm animals were affected. There have been far more accidents in India with similar results. Please see this author's website article entitled “How to Avoid Nuclear War between India and Pakistan". If Britain were to adopt the policy of nuclear power as an option for future alternative source of energy supply that is likely to be followed by the rest of the world. In view of the experience in India there are serious doubts as to the ability of the Third World countries and the countries of the former Soviet Union to maintain adequate standards of safety requirements to avoid accidents that could pose grave threats to human health and environment of the living beings.
Secondly there is also the risk with regard to the safe disposal of nuclear waste material. Although the developing technology can ensure that there would be less of nuclear waste material than in the past but even the lesser amount of waste material has to be safely disposed of. In view of the durability of nuclear waste material even after its disposal no satisfactory solution has been found to the question of its safe disposal.
Thirdly as pointed out above, if Britain were to adopt this option as a policy that is likely to be followed by other countries of the world. Such a widespread network of nuclear power plants is likely to provide more vulnerable targets for terrorists' attack. It might be virtually impossible to protect these installations from the terrorists' attacks which are likely to become more sophisticated as the time passes.
Fourthly any country that has developed the technology to produce energy from nuclear power plants can use that know-how and the facility to make nuclear bombs. Again India provides the example. In the mid-1950s the Government of India decided to embark upon a programme to develop nuclear technology for peaceful purposes. Following that decision India was able to establish its own nuclear power plants with the assistance from Soviet Union. However, the Government continued its programme of research in nuclear technology for peaceful purposes. Subsequently it decided to make its own nuclear bombs. Thus India which has outstanding disputes with neighbours became a nuclear power with implications for international peace and security. Pakistan immediately followed suit thereby adding a new dimension to its conflict with India. The distance between nuclear power and nuclear weapons is a very short one in terms of time, technical know-how and the facilities required.
Iran is now using the same argument, namely that it is developing nuclear technology for peaceful purposes only. Quite understandably and justifiably the West does not trust Iran's promise not to develop nuclear weapons. Indeed the verdict of history is against Iran's position. The Indian experience shows that Iran would be able to do so in no time. This shows that if the countries of the world were to adopt nuclear power as an option for alternative source of energy supply the process is likely to end up in most of the countries possessing nuclear weapons. The world would become a nuclear planet in which the continued existence of man and other forms of life cannot be ensured.
WHAT ARE THE SAFE AND VIABLE OPTIONS?
If the option for nuclear energy is ruled out as not being safe the question naturally arises: what are the safe and viable alternative (alternative to fossil fuels such as coal. gas, oil etc.) options? It is submitted that adequate resources should be directed towards developing the following.
(a) RENEWABLE SOURCES OF ENERGY such as solar energy, wind power, sea waves etc. At present technology is not sufficiently developed to tap these sources on a scale that is required and commercially viable. Adequate resources should be made available for research and development of technology in this field as a matter of priority. Renewable sources of energy are clean and potentially unlimited. Therefore every effort should be made to tap these sources.
(b) RECYCLING OF WASTES, THEIR CONVERSION INTO ENERGY AND CONSERVATION OF ENERGY.
It appears that architects are designing buildings to be in tune with nature so that hot air within the buildings and outside during the summer could be conserved so as to supply heating during the winter. Similarly cold air of the winter months could be conserved so as to provide cool air during the summer. If technology is sufficiently developed, the process might be expanded beyond the building architecture to other areas.
Again the industrialised countries are finding that they are unable to cope with the available volume of industrial and domestic wastes. The city of Nottingham has reportedly decided to burn wastes at rubbish dumps. If this method of disposal is repeated by other cities of the world that would make matters far worse in terms of carbon emissions into the atmosphere. However, if technology were available to transform this vast amount of waste material into energy that might go a long way towards solving the energy crisis without contributing to the global warming and climate change. The issue again boils down to the question of diverting adequate resources for research and development in promoting the appropriate technology for this purpose.
IF CARBON EMISSIONS COULD BE RECYCLED AND CONVERTED INTO ENERGY BY THE APPROPRIATE TECHNOLOGY THAT MIGHT PROVIDE ANSWERS TO THE QUESTIONS OF HOW TO FIND A SECURE SOURCE OF SUPPLY OF ENERGY TO MEET THE WORLD'S NEEDS AND HOW TO DEAL WITH THE PROBLEMS OF GLOBAL WARMING AND CLIMATE CHANGE.THE POLICY OUGHT TO BE ONE OF NOT SIMPLY RECYCLING CARBON EMISSIONS FOR SAFE DISPOSAL UNDERGROUND AS THE BRITISH PETROLEUM IS DOING IN ITS GAS PLANTS IN ALGERIA BUT ONE OF CONVERTING THEM INTO ENERGY.
Therefore these safe and viable alternative options are recommended to the Government for serious consideration for adoption as the appropriate energy policy.
Importance of a Peaceful Resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict
As pointed out earlier, the demand for secular democracy carries with it the seed of nationalism. Indeed, the emergence of democracy in the Middle East is very likely to be followed by a strong tide of nationalism. Nationalism is almost invariably directed against another nation. In this region, the conflict is very likely to be one between Jewish nationalism / Zionism and Arab nationalism. This is liable to pose a great threat to international peace and security so long as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict remains unresolved. Furthermore, this conflict has an international dimension. As the West, in particular the USA, tends to support Israel as against the Arabs, this conflict is also likely to assume the character of a clash between the West and the Arab / Islamic world, and is liable to bring about the fulfilment of the prophecy of Nostradamus as to the consequence of this conflict. For this reason, it is extremely important to address this issue. This author’s website article entitled ‘A Peaceful Resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict’ advocates a federal solution to this conflict as opposed to the two-state solution which, for the reasons given in that article, is not only not desirable, but also not viable, owing to the fact of forcible and illegal seizure by the Israelis of eastern Jerusalem and Palestinian lands and homes.
Constitutional Government and Protection of Human Rights
The main thrust of the protestors’ demand in North Africa and the Middle East seems to be for the protection against the arbitrary use of state powers against the citizens by the authoritarian regimes. In other words, the state must operate within the framework of an enforceable constitution, which must contain the provisions for the protection of human rights and freedoms - enforceable by an independent judiciary. In other words, the authoritarian regimes ought to be replaced by constitutional government (which could be either a presidential (as in the USA) or parliamentary (as in the UK) system of government). Where appropriate, the constitution ought to be a federal one with the distribution of powers between centre and the regions. Elsewhere, it could be a unitary constitution. The reader is referred to this author’s website article entitled ‘A Federal Solution to the Conflict in Sudan’ as an illustration of a federal solution to regional conflict. Where there are sectarian differences among the citizen of particular state, as in Bahrain, the constitution ought to contain provisions against discrimination.
How to Bring About Change from Despotism to Constitutional Government
At the present time (June 2011), popular protests have assumed the dimension of a civil war in Libya, Syria and Yemen, having succeeded in bringing about a change of government in Tunisia and Egypt peacefully. The situation in Bahrain remains uncertain. The West has militarily intervened in Libya in support of the rebel groups while warning the government of Syria against suppressing the popular protests. In the above paragraphs of this work, this author has articulated the objectives of the change by spelling out the goals to be achieved. However, he is not persuaded by the current strategy of the West to take sides in the conflict militarily or otherwise. Even after their experience in Iraq and Afghanistan, they have not learned their lesson. In each one of these cases in this regional conflict, the West ought to persuade the parties to negotiate and produce a political solution and not to encourage them to resort to armed conflict. Those from outside North Africa and the Middle East ought to offer the parties to the conflict financial incentives to reach a political settlement. Once a political solution to the conflict has been reached, the governments of the region ought to pursue the objectives set out above in this article. The Western military intervention (as pursued in Libya) carries the risk of bringing about the fulfilment of the prophecy of Nostradamus [please see, for instance, Nostradamus, The Prophecies by J. Anderson Black (Blitz Editions, 1995) pp. 248-251].
Summary of Recommendations
1.
A peaceful resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is urgently called for, not only to remove a great threat to international peace and security, but also to eliminate the possibility of a serious war between the West and the Islamic world, as predicted by Nostradamus in the 16th century. It is submitted that a JUST AND FAIR settlement of this conflict be based on the federal solution as recommended in this author’s website article entitled ‘A Peaceful Resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict’ (available at www.angelfire.com/ok/mafazal/index.html).
2.
It is recommended that a programme for the all-round development of trade, industry and agriculture be adopted by the countries of North Africa and the Middle East by way of concerted actions among these countries. The programme will require the greening of the Sahara Desert and other deserts in these regions by way of afforestation. The proposal of this article for the greening of the Sahara and other deserts in this region by way of afforestation seems to be supported by a recent report by the BBC stating that "[p]lanting trees that improve soil quality can help boost crop yields for African farmers and improve food security" (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-15305271). Desalination plants established along the sea coast will supply fresh water required for the irrigation, afforestation and agricultural development. Appropriate technology will have to be used for the development of solar energy for this programme. Successful implementation of this programme will lay the foundation for a prosperous society that will take care of the challenges posed by poverty, unemployment and social deprivation of the population at large.
3.
Adoption of a written constitution (unitary or federal, parliamentary or presidential) as appropriate, which will provide a constitutional framework for the operation of the state machinery to be enforced by an independent judiciary is recommended for the countries concerned to replace the arbitrary / authoritarian character of the government. The constitution should contain the provisions for the protection of human rights. Where there are sectarian differences among the population (as in Bahrain), the constitution ought to provide judicial remedies against unlawful discrimination. The written constitution may provide for a constitutional monarchy where appropriate, as in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain.
4.
The education curriculum of the countries concerned ought to provide appropriate Islamic teachings, in particular Islamic attitude towards non-Muslims, which is not one of hostility or enmity, but one of tolerance. This is reflected in verse 6 of Chapter 109 of the Holy Koran, the Muslim holy book, directing Muslims to say to non-Muslims “to you be your religion and to me my religion” (Islamic monotheism).
5.
The appropriate measures for dealing with climate change and global warming ought to be a matter of public policy for the governments of these countries. In view of the explosions at the nuclear plant in Japan during the early part of 2011, resulting in the worldwide spread of nuclear radiation posing grave risks not only for human health (and food, drink, etc.), but also for animals and plants at the present time and for the future, nuclear power as an option to ensure future energy supply ought to be excluded. The reader is referred to the details above in the article on this matter.
