Note that the average expansion cycle since 1945 averages 5 years. The average since 1854 is 4 years. The longest recorded was 1961 to 1969, 8 1/2 years. We are near the end one of the most prosperous cycles in U.S. history. The last recession ended in march 1991. As of the present, we are in the ninth year of expansion. The probability of recession in 2000 is extremely high, and a virtual certainty. (Independent of Y2K!)
BUSINESS CYCLE REFERENCE DATES -periods of economic expansion- DURATION IN MONTHS:
Average, all cycles:
Average, peacetime cycles
Note: The business cycle of the 1990's can be divided into two periods:
The first 4-year period from 1990-1994 was characterized by recession and high unemployment.(even though it technically ended in 1991.) The 4-year period from 1994-1998 was one of expansion. The period from 1998-2002 will probably be one of contraction. Based on the 4-year cycle , we can expect a contractionary period very soon.
To see how the sunspot cycle correlates with recessions, go to: Sunspot / Recession Page
Medium-term chart showing regularity of business cycles: periods of growth
and contraction.
Links:
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