July 27, 1999
So much confusion in the y2k field! Who are we to believe? Opinions on the magnitude of y2k are all over the map...even among computer professionals. Some continue to say it will be a bump-in-a-road--usually anti-panic PR government officials or banking authorities--and some say the "end-of-the-world." It has been like this for the past two years: no one can seem to agree on anything.
The following exerpts are from the "Y2K Experts Page" at: http://www.russkelly.com/experts.html Be sure to read the lengthy "Statements page," where these quotes come from at: http://www.russkelly.com/statements.html
Latest from Dennis Elenburg:
(July 1999) "My ranking remains unchanged due to no new news. The Y2k debate has deteriorated into a propaganda battle for public perception, and it appears that the bankers, corporate attorneys, and govenment spin doctors are winning at this point." "People have dug in with their positions and few are changing their minds. Facts, evidence, and decades of project management history don't seem to matter. Still, the facts are that large IT projects rarely get done on time. Y2k is the biggest and most ubiquitous IT project in the history of the industry. What remains to be seen is what impact unexpected and uncorrected Y2k bugs will have on business, industry, government, and individual lives in the coming months."
Latest from Harlan Smith:
(July 1999):
"Lots of good reports but ...
Too many loose ends not being tied up.
Too much uncertainty about oil supply and foreign supply lines in general.
Too much self reporting that successful remediation is at severe risk --
e.g. Washington DC, Ventura County.
Too much government and banking propaganda as undesirable replacement for
independent audit of progress.
Too many news blackouts for areas in trouble -- US Post Office, Department
of Veteran's Affairs.
Too many deadlines being pushed out to September through November -- US
Army
Too many superficial tests being run as propaganda ploys -- FAA, NERC
Too many real tests unsuccessful -- L. A. sewage and elevator failures.
Too many programmers unhappy about progress being made
.
Too few BCCPs (Business Continuity and Contingency Preparation) plans from
federal agencies -- none?
Too late amendment to Executive Order establishing 40-person ICC
(Information Coordination Center)
Too few community action groups, too poorly focused.
Too much continuing escalation of federal remediation budget that doesn't
even comprehend contingency preparations.
Too many foreign countries half awake.
Too few met June 30 deadline.
Too little understanding of the implications of minor problems -- July 1st
start of fiscal year.
Too few signs of life from Al Gore, whose presidential campaign depends on
Y2K success.
Too tepid responses from U.N. and G8.
Too much litigation commencing -- GTE suing insurers for $300 million.
Too little news on real status of embedded systems problems.
Too much secrecy on government preparations -- News blackout on evacuation
route signs appearing on Michigan Interstates
Too much exaggeration of the problem by "doomers", minimization of the
problem by "Happy Faces" and lack of objective factual information by the
large majority."
Latest fromThierry Falissard:
(July 1999): "My ranking is unchanged (8,5). I am looking for good news, but I don't find any. Most Fortune 500 firms are falling behind (I recommend John F. Mauldin's article : http://2000wave.com/archive/top/latestthoughts1.html where he forecasts now a severe recession). Most public organisms (I'm speaking of France) are not ready, while the focus here is still on Small and Medium Enterprises. I'm wondering whether we are stepping now, after awareness and before panic, to a new state of mind : RESIGNATION."
Latest from Cory Hamasaki:
(July 1999) "The Y2K news has been uniformly bad, L.A.'s flubbed Y2K tests, Washington DC shifting to a contingency mode that includes 12 hour shifts for the police, Locomotive size generators, and a request for 75 million dollars from the Feds."
"Add to this the grilling that Senator Bennett gave OMB (So far, my analysis in WRP 123 is the only report on this issue.) and the disclosure by the NRC confirming monitoring and engineering systems problems at Nuclear power plants. The picture is not very pretty."
"On the other hand, we still have six months to go."
Latest from Russ Kelly:
(July 1999) "I am not any more optimistic than I was a month ago--too much remains to be done, and too little time to do it in. I am astounded at the lack of public awareness at this late date, and the general apathy. Probably no one wants Y2K to rain on their parade during this economic boom year. After vacations and children are back in school, I suspect there will be some serious apprehension. Many small business failures are almost certain and this will ripple through the country. Banks are safe. Electric power probably not a major problem but there will be lots of temporary outages, surges, and "brown outs." These fluctuations and reduced power "fries" sensitive components. Should be a banner sales year for modem manufacturers, TV and VCR makers, electronic home telephones, UPS/SPS manufacturers, other companies with sensitive electronics."
"During the first quarter of 2000 many will have problems, some will benefit. It will be 270 million different things in US. Expect Y2K range and aberrant behavior."
Latest from Gary North:
(July 1999): "The main July 1 non-event will be the absence of compliance by most of those companies and governments that promised to be compliant no later than July 1, which replaced the March 31 deadline, which replaced the December 31 deadline. There will no doubt be numerous 98% compliant organizations. The new deadline will be September 30. Problem: we are running out of 'soon'."
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Below is a list of individuals that are the most widely quoted authorities on "year 2000" issues. A short biographical background and statement provided by the individual is shown..
Rankings are based on the extensive monitoring of the forums, web sites, newsletters, published articles and books, and in most cases, personal contact with the individuals by Russ Kelly. Individuals ranked themselves.
The purpose of the rankings is so that we can monitor the "seriousness" trend. It is mostly of academic interest where we are at the moment. What is of critical importance, is the direction we are going. Is it getting better, or is it getting worse? Have we waited too long to get it all done, or is the "undone" really unimportant after all? See what these experts have to say, then visit their web sites for more information.
SURVEY STATUS: July 1999 rankings survey began June 29th, with most rankings expected to be posted by July 10th.
Visit often and see where the trend is taking us.
Also see other sites of expert groups at bottom of page.
Ranking of problem ranges from 0 for absolutely no concern, to 10 for a belief that the problem is so serious that major worldwide social, economic, and technological disruptions will occur.
Is the problem getting better? Staying the same? Or getting worse? See the trends according to the panel of experts. Rankings posted monthly. Come back often.
The meaning of our trend symbols....
L This expert's ranking is worse since the last
survey.
K This expert's ranking remains the same as their
last ranking.
J This expert's ranking is improved since the last
survey.
? This expert has not responded to the latest
survey yet.
In alphabetical order, our experts....
? Dave Bettinger. Ranking of problem: June 1998- 6.5. August 1998- 7.5. October 1998- 7.8. December 1998- 7.8. January 1999-7.8. February 1999- 7.5. March 1999- 7.4. April 1999- 7.4. May 1999- 7.4. June 1999- 7.5. B.S.B.A.- Management. I.T. professional 16 years; Y2k practitioner 4 years. Author; frequent speaker on national circuit; co-leader of international year 2000 working group. (www.year2000.unt.edu) [Click here for statement from Dave]
K Joe Boivin. Ranking of problem: June 1998- 9.5. August 1998- 9.6. October 1998- 9.7. December 1998- 9.8. January 1999- 9.9. February 1999- 9.9. March 1999- 10.0. April 1999- 10.0. May 1999- 10.0. June 1999- 10.0. July 1999- 10.0. Canadian, Year 2000 banking and management expert. Former Director of Year 2000 program for Canada's second largest bank (CIBC). President of the Global Millennium Foundation, a non-profit, non-partisan, organization committed to developing national and global level solutions to the Year 2000 technological crisis. http://www.globalmf.org [Click here for statement from Joe]
? Dr. Douglass Carmichael. Ranking of problem: June 1998- 8.0. October 1998- 7.0. December 1998- 7.0. January 1999- 5 to 8. March 1999- 6 to 8. May 1999- 6.0. Psychotherapist and consultant in the intersection between people and organizations, psychology, technology, economics and politics. Author, researcher, writer. Ph.D. psychology, California Institute of Technology-physics, Harvard University Cognitive Studies- Brunner, Mexican Institute of Psychoanalysis - Erich Fromm, Washington School of Psychiatry, advanced psychotherapy. http://www.tmn.com/~doug/ [Click here for statement from Doug]
K Dennis Elenburg (aka "The Y2k Weatherman"). Ranking of problem: June 1998- 7.77. August 1998- 7.77. October 1998- 7.77. December 1998- 7.77. January 1999- 7.77. February 1999- 7.1. April 1999- 7.1. May 1999- 7.1. June 1999- 7.1. July 1999- 7.1. Dennis specifically wants you to note his statement on the ranking by clicking on "Statement from Dennis" below. Y2k Consultant to a major telecommunications company, editor of the free Y2kWatch News email list that reaches 20,000 subscribers, and vocal advocate for Y2k personal preparedness. (http://Y2kWatch.com/) [Click here for statement from Dennis]
K Thierry Falissard. Ranking of problem: August 1998- 9.0. October 1998- 9.0. December 1998- 8.5. January 1999- 8.5. February 1999- 8.5. March 1999- 8.5. April 1999- 8.5. May 1999- 8.5. June 1999- 8.5. July 1999- 8.5. French. Software developer and Systems engineer with 17 years experience working on mainframe systems. Author of 4 books about systems and of many articles in French and English IT press. 2 years dedicated to y2k issues. http://ourworld.compuserve.com/homepages/tfalissard [Click here for statement from Thierry]
K Karl Feilder. Ranking of problem: July 1998- 5.0. August 1998: 6.0. October 1998- 6.0. December 1998- 6.0. January 1999- 5.0. February 1999- 6.0. March 1999- 7.0. April 1999- 7.0. May 1999- 7.5. June 1999- 8.0. July 1999- 8.0. CEO of Greenwich Mean Time, international expert on the Y2K PC problem and its resolution. PC Program Coordinator of the UK government's Year 2000 taskforce, Action 2000. He also has been appointed PC Program Advisor for the Australian government's Year 2000 taskforce, and Honorary Advisor to the South African Government. (http://www.feilder.com) [Click here for statement from Karl]
J Dr. Mark Frautschi. Ranking of problem: January 1999- 7.0. February 1999- 7.0. March 1999- 6.2. April 1999- 5.8 to 7.8. May 1999- 6.0 to 8.0. June 1999- 6.0 to 8.0. July 1999- 5.8 to 7.8. Physicist by training, Dr. Frautschi was introduced to y2k in 1997 through his interest in the interface between the social and scientific sides of organizations like the national laboratories, where he conducted his high-energy physics research. He is the author of several articles on Y2k and frequently gives presentations and interviews about this rapidly evolving subject. (http://www.tmn.com/~frautsch/) [Click here for statement from Mark]
L Dr. Paula Gordon. Ranking of problem: February 1999- 8.0. May 1999- 9.0. June 1999- 5.0 to 9.0. July 1999- 4.0 to 9.5. Visiting Research Professor and Director of Special Projects in the Research Program in Social and Organizational Learning, School of Business and Public Management at George Washington University in Washington, DC. She speaks and writes on Y2K. Her White Paper on Y2K: "A Call to Action: National and Global Implications of the Year 2000 and Embedded Systems Crisis" is at her website. (http://www.gwu.edu/~y2k/keypeople/gordon) [Click here for statement from Paula]
? Dr. Reynolds Griffith. Ranking of problem: June 1998- 7.5. August 1998- 7.6. October 1998- 7.6. December 1998- 7.6. January 1999- 7.6 February 1999- 7.4. March 1999- 7.2. April 1999- 7.2. May 1999- 7.2. June 1999- 7.2. Professor of Finance at Stephen F.Austin State University. Ph.D. from the University of Texas at Austin. Holds the Chartered Financial Analyst designation. He has been researching the Year 2000 Problem since early 1997 and has written papers and articles related to it. (http://cobweb.sfasu.edu/~rg/rgy2k.htm) [Click here for statement from Reynolds]
K Cory K. Hamasaki. Ranking of problem: June 1998- 7.0. October 1998- 7.0. December 1998- 7.0. March 1999- 7.0. May 1999- 7.0. July 1999- 7.0. BA Chemistry, MS Computer Science - the George Washington University, 29 years in S/360-S390 systems programming and large systems. Discovered the 000197AF decade roll over problem in 1979, documented in Risks Digest. (http://www.kiyoinc.com/HHResCo.html) [Click here for statement from Cory]
K Russ Kelly. Ranking of problem: June 1998- 8.0. August 1998- 8.3. October 1998- 8.5. December 1998- 8.7. January 1999- 8.7. February 1999- 8.5. March 1999- 8.5. April 1999- 8.8. May 1999- 8.9. June 1999- 9.0. July 1999- 9.0. 36 year software development pioneer, speaker on year 2000 issues, editor of "Kelly's Year 2000 Digest", and weekly radio talk show host of "Year 2000 and You." www.russkelly.com [Click here for statement from Russ]
K Roleigh Martin. Ranking of problem: June 1998- 5 to 9. March 1999- 5.5 to 9.0. May 1999- 5.5 to 9.0. July 1999- 5.5 to 9.0. Master of Arts in Sociology, 21 years in Data Processing, writer and speaker on "Y2K Embedded Systems Threat." http://ourworld.compuserve.com/homepages/roleigh_martin [Click here for statement from Roleigh]
K Michael Maynard. Ranking of problem: February 1999- 5.0. March 1999- 6.0. April 1999- 4.0. May 1999- 3.0. July 1999- 3.0. Michael Maynard is President of Azimuth Partners, Inc, a management and technology consulting company. He has led Y2K remediation projects for 5 years. He is columnist at large for NewsBytes and senior editor of Intenational Business publications. (www.azipart.com) [Click here for statement from Michael]
K Dr. Gary North. Ranking of problem: June 1998- 10.0. August 1998- 10.0. October 1998- 10.0. December 1998- 10.0. January 1999- 10.0. April 1999- 10.0. May 1999- 10.0. June 1999- 10.0. July 1999- 10.0. Historian, Ph.D. in history. No known information technology background. www.garynorth.com [Click here for statement from Gary].
K Dr. Scott Olmsted. Ranking of problem: June 1998- 8.0. August 1998- 8.0. October 1998- 8.5. December 1998- 8.7. January 1999- 8.7. March 1999- 8.7. April 1999- 8.5. May 1999- 8.0. June 1999- 8.0. July 1999- 8.0. Doctorate in Engineering-Economic Systems from Stanford. 20 year software veteran. www.prepare4y2k.com [Click here for statement from Scott]
J Charles Reuben. Ranking of problem: June 1998- 8.0. August 1998- 7.2. October 1998- 7.0. December 1998- 7.0. January 1999- 6.7. February 1999- 6.7. March 1999- 5.5. April 1999- 3.5 to 4.5. May 1999- 2.0 to 3.5. June 1999- 1.5 to 2.5. July 1999- 1.0 to 2.0. B.Sc. (Physics,Chemistry,Biology), M.A.(Mathematics), Businessman,Dallas ..programs in 9 languages has been working with Computers for 20 years.. home.swbell.net/buytexas/y2k3link.htm [Click here for statement from Charles]
J Alan Simpson. Ranking of problem: June 1998- 8.0. August 1998- 8.0. October 1998- 7.0. December 1998- 6.0. January 1999- 6.0. February 1999- 5.5. April 1999- 5.0. May 1999- 4.5. June 1999- 4.5. July 1999- 4.0. Author. Information Technology executive. International broadcaster and speaker. Satellite communications pioneer. www.comlinks.com [Click here for statement from Alan]
L Harlan Smith. Ranking of Problem: June 1998- 7.5. August 1998- 8.0. December 1998- 8.0. February 1999- 8.2. April 1999- 6.0. June 1999- 6.0. July 1999- 7.0. Electronics engineer (retired) with 36 years experience of working on complex military radar systems. Author of "Synergistic Mitigation and Contingency Preparation" (http://2000.jbaworld.com/people/smith_h.htm) [Click here for statement from Harlan]
? Timothy J Wilbur. Ranking of problem: February 1999- 8.5. March 1999- 9.0. April 1999- 9.1. May 1999- 9.2. June 1999- 9.5. Dip,. Social Scientist, Research Development and Analysis, Personal Computer Business Management Consultant; Author, Y2K lecturer, founder the Beyond 2000 Awareness Project; Dip,. Homoeopathy, Iridology, Family Therapy. (http://www.webit-designs.com/beyond2000) [Click here for statement from Timothy]
? Ed Yourdon. Ranking of problem: June 1998- 8.0. February 1999- 8.5. May 1999- 7.0 to 9.0. Prolific author, 30 year programming pioneer, B.S. in applied mathmatics from MIT. (www.yourdon.com) [Click here for statement from Ed]
J Nicholas Zvegintzov. Ranking of problem: June 1998- 1.0. October 1998- 1.0. December 1998- 1.0. January 1999- 1.0. February 1999- 1.0. March 1999- 1.0. April 1999- 0.9. May 1999- 0.8. June 1999- 0.7. July 1999- 0.6. Author, speaker, software company president. M.A. from Oxford Univ. in Experimental Psychology and Philosophy. Researched in computer science and artificial intelligence at UC Berkeley and Carnegie-Mellon. 35 year software veteran. (http://www.softwaremanagement.com) [Click here for statement from Nicholas]
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