January 1, 2002
First of all, a Happy New Year to all and an apology for the late update. I have been battling the flu for the past two days and was not able to get a discussion out in time. Just a very brief update today before a detailed update later tonight around 1AM. While many are looking past the storm system developing along the SE Coast on Thursday, I must caution those folks that a very minor change with the upper level features related to this system may have huge implications farther North. While it seems clear at this point that a storm system will undergo bombogenesis along the Eastern Seaboard Thursday night, it is still not exactly clear which track this system will take. At the moment, it appears that parts of NC and VA will be 'under the gun' as far as measurable snowfall is concerned, but again, one must use caution in following model guidance at face value. There are signs that the closed upper low responsible for spinning up this storm system may be a bit slower, stronger, and remain closed for longer than guidance is showing. For example, the ETA at 12Z today, in my opinion, looks to have a good general idea and actually makes an attempt to capture (pull back) the surface low near Hatteras instead of harmlessly jetting it out to sea. This key is crucial!! If the upper low is allowed to remain closed and be a bit slower moving as I expected would happen this run, there is a good chance that this storm heads much closer to the coastline than we are currently seeing. However, if the closed upper low opens just a few hours prematurely and is weaker and faster moving, then yes, it is out to sea after hitting parts of the Mid Atlantic (NC/VA) with measurable snowfall. So, this system will come down to the wire it seems in terms of forecasting a reasonable track. Suffice to say, I have not written this system off in regards to it's potential effects farther North into Eastern MD, DE, NJ, and even SE PA. As a matter of fact, I am almost inclined this noon to hedge even closer to that scenario, but I will hold my ground for now, which is still a more North and West track than currently progged (which is taking the low from coastal SC to South of Hatteras and then ENE on the 12Z maps). I've heard a few good analogues to this storm in regards to upper air and surface features, and in fact, my friend Dave Tolleris at WXRISK has pointed out a very good analogue to the March 1980 event. With that being agreed upon, an analogy that I would like to use really has nothing to do with upper air features, etc. My analogy is the Jan 25, 2000 storm where many folks were clearly looking ahead to another event 6 days down the road while missing the boat on a potential hit in the short range. In keeping this short, I will say I am not sold on either solution right now, but I am leaning more towards a farther N & W track than seen on 12Z Jan 1 data. I would include the chance for light snow in our area on Thursday night and/or Friday depending on exact timing. Again, in short, I have not written this off as affecting areas farther North than NC and VA. Yes, I am somewhat going against many of the forecasters out there and may be leaving myself out to dry, but based on the signals I am seeing the the 500mb level the past 2 runs, I see no evidence leading me to believe this is clearly out to sea. Another update later tonight where I may post a storm track and early guesstimated snowfall totals. Happy New Year and a longer update tonite. Take care!
S.B.
