November 12, 2000
Not really too much to get excited about yet. Pattern change coming near the middle to end of next week (15th-17th). Instead of temperatures in the mid to upped 50's, temperatures will be near or below normal for a period. Details are still sketchy, but the pattern will generally shift from a positive NAO (trough in West/ridge in east) to a negative NAO (ridge in West/trough in East). General heights at the 500h level will begin to lower across central Canada and the first signs of a Hudson Bay vortex start to emerge during this time. It's tough to say whether this will become the 'dominant' overall weather scheme this year, but many of the ensembles hint that the NAO will remain negative through at least Thanksgiving with minor fluctuations in the pattern. One wrench in the forecast is the ridge off the southeast coast. This too could become a dominant player this winter in the battle between mild, moist, tropical air and cold, dry, arctic air. That would leave our area open for all sorts of weather this winter. A few weeks should give us a pretty solid answer as to what will be happening in the upper levels the next few months. So, in general, a heads up that we are going through a transition in the weather pattern as I post this. Yesterday, the Delaware Valley received anywhere from .25" to .50" rain. This in itself shows a shift in the overall weather pattern in that the month of October through early November saw around .10" total precipitation for the entire 5 week period. Sometime either Tuesday or Wednesday of next week, a vigorous storm system will be making it's way across the country spreading colder air over much of the central and northeastern US. Beyond that, a reinforcing shot of cold air may be approaching by the time we hit 18th-19th. Many ski resorts in the Northeast will be happy by the middle to end of next week because the weather will be perfect for artificial snow making. Who knows, several areas may see their first widespread snows of the season by Thanksgiving. All in all, the pattern is transitioning and the weather will get colder toward the middle to end of next week and will be reinforced by early Thanksgiving week. I will update again in the next couple of days. Take care.
