November 27, 2000(3:30PM)
The weather for the remainder of the day looks nice if you are a fan of above normal temperatures. Some breaks of sun will make it through the cloud cover and highs will be in the mid 50's. The same holds true for tomorrow with lots more sunshine and highs in the mid 50's. As we approach mid-week, a strong shortwave (mid-level energy) will drop down out of Canada and into the Ohio Valley. That aspect of the situation looks like a guarantee at this point. The questions that need to be answered are 1) how far south does the piece of energy dive, 2) how cold will all layers of the atmosphere be for this time of year, and 3) what happens at the surface? Well, it's still too early to pinpoint specifics, but now that the piece of energy has entered the Pacific NW/ SW Canada, the answers will become more clear as the system approaches. At this point, it appears that the shortwave will have a clipper-type system associated with it as it tracks through the Ohio Valley. Precipitation will be somewhat limited as it races across the Appalachians, but there are signals that Gulf moisture *may* try to work into the system to an extent. However, I don't buy into that scenario 100% at this time. There is very little energy in the southern jet to interract with this system, so my feeling is that any additional moisture would likely be fed into the system via the Atlantic Ocean once it crosses the Appalachians. Where will it cross the mountains? My take is that the track will be something near a central IL, southern MD, Cape May, NJ line. The system will likely try to transfer it's energy southeastward by the time it hits SW PA. What does this mean for us? Prercipitation from the system will arrive overnight Wednesday and will be light to moderate as it continues into the day Thursday and tapers off. Snow or rain? Too early to say, but the likelihood exists that any precip in our area would start out as plain rain as 850h temps are just above freezing. However, as the energy shifts southeastward, we will likely see a change to snow at some point. How much snow? When will it start? When will it changeover? Accumulation? I'll give you an idea tomorrow afternoon. I will keep updating over the next several days to keep you informed of any changes. So, right now we need to keep an eye on Wednesday night as a system may bring our first wintry weather of the season. If temperatures are cold enough, we could see snow. How much? I'll let you know tomorrow. Take care.
