January 14, 2003
Two systems to watch for this week. The first is an Alberta Clipper-type system which will swing through the area later today and tonight, reinforcing already cold air that is in place and generating a few flurries or brief snow squalls (could even whiten the ground with a quick dusting). The second event, the potential snow event for Friday, is beginning to seem more likely for our area.
Variably cloudy today, brisk and cold with the temperature hovering near 32F. A flurry or two possible overnight with lows in the upper teens. Partly sunny Wednesday and Thursday, chance of a flurry on Wednesday, with highs both days around 30F.
One of the biggest question marks in terms of apparent weather for the late week system will be just how much of the white stuff we in fact actually see. Right now, the range varies from a flurry to possible significant accumulations (4"+). The jury is still out on whether or not two potent shortwaves (PJ and STJ) will phase or not during the day on Thursday, but we here believe that a phase will indeed occur, perhaps near the Tennessee Valley.
Our reasons for concern are simple based on this season's trending features. Guidance generally "loses" these systems in the 72-120 hour range prior to these events. All has been quiet the past 24 hours as guidance has been in this phase that it has tended to go through this winter. However, we believe that over the next 18-48 hours, guidance will come together with this system and in fact phase the upper energies quicker and perhaps even pinch off an upper low near the Tennessee Valley, thus allowing the storm to track closer to the coast (different than the "out-to-sea" solutions that most guidance is kicking out at this time). The 0Z/14 UKMET is getting the right idea by "bombing" the system out near North Carolina and is actually much closer to the coast than I had expected to see this AM.
Will go with increasing clouds late Thursday. Chance of snow Friday, otherwise mostly cloudy, highs in the upper 20s. Pop for snow 50%. Cold air hangs tough over the weekend with temps struggling to get above freezing for highs. Another potent s/w dives into the Plains Sunday perhaps setting up another "event" early in the week (more on this later).
In short, the next 18-36 hours are crucial in determining when the two pieces of energy will phase, but we feel the trend towards a stronger and farther North and West system is inevitable. Confidence is average considering I am basically going against most NWP products at this time. Lots of details to hammer out over the next few days, so i will be updating once a day. Take care!
S.B.
